Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | UraniumSeek.com 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

GoldSeek Radio Nugget: Charles Hughes Smith and Chris Waltzek
By: radio.GoldSeek.com

What Gold Needs to Do Now
By: Rick Ackerman

Asian Metals Market Update: December-14-2017
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain About 1% and 2%
By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

Bitcoin Total Wipeout Alert
By: Clive Maund

Ira Epstein's Metals Video 12 13 2017
By: Ira Epstein

Hope for the day of deliverance but avoid predicting it
By: Chris Powell

The Fed is Arranging Deck Chairs on the Titanic (the Iceberg Comes in 2018).
By: Graham Summers

Out Of Money By November 29th - Social Security Indexing Part 3
By: Daniel R. Amerman, CFA

BullionStar Perspectives - Eric Sprott - The Gold Market
By: BullionStar

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
Good Things Come To Those Who Wait

By: CAPTAINHOOK

 -- Published: Monday, 21 September 2015 | Print  | Disqus 

Have you ever heard the saying Ė good things come to those who wait? What this obviously means is good things happen to the patient. Within my own life experience I have found this to be true. Patience is more often than not a virtue, especially when it comes to the speculation game. And while itís true these past few years have not been kind to such thinkers Ė thatís the point Ė meaning the future looks bright for those who exercised patience and good judgment in attempting to game a bottom in precious metals.

 

Those who attempted to impose their own will on outcomes, and ignored the warnings, have been decimated financially through the cyclical bear market in precious metals these past four-years. (i.e. think mid-term correction.) But those who were penitent and wise are now in position to benefit from what will likely be an unbelievable recovery in the sector at some point in the not too distant future. People wonít believe the gains precious metals, led by the shares, can make. But thatís what it takes to engender a bull market Ė disbelief and a wall of worry for smart capital to climb.

 

We saw this at the turn in 2000/2001, and it lasted only three years, when precious metal shares ripped higher. Some life fortunes were made during this time. And here we are again, at the other end of the Dumb Bell Rally into a Fibonacci 21-year cycle due to top in 2021. Given the impatient would say itís taken longer to get here than anybody thought, a bottom is possible (likely?) in the sector sometime between October and February of next year Ė at the outside. This prognostication is based on the observation it took slightly over six-months for precious metals to bottom after the broads topped in 2000.

 

If we have a repeat here, where indiscriminate margin debt related selling occurs over the next six-months, which is not difficult to imagine with present record levels, the October to February window seems about right if the top for stocks is actually in as of the May to July triple top in the S&P 500 (SPX). Of course with margin debt levels much worse than either 2000 or 2008, and in Technicolor, the outcome this time around might be different. (i.e. longer as the world slips into deflationary depression or shorter because of a stock market crash in October.) Be that as it may, for our own accounts we will be looking hard at precious metals shares during this period, especially if the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI) is trading between 60 and 80.

 

With the HUI at triple bottom lows right now, just hovering above the large round number, itís no longer difficult to imagine such an outcome anymore, because once 100 is taken out, the next largest interval is 50, bringing previously unfathomable thoughts into view. As long-term subscribers would know, we have been using the measured move (MM) off the larger degree head and shoulders pattern (H&S) shown in the weekly Amex Gold Miners Index (GDM) plot from the Chart Room as our guide to identifying a tradable bottom for precious metals shares for some time now, with a target of 300, which is 18.6% below Fridayís closing price. (See Figure 1)

 

Figure 1


 

Transposing an 18.6% loss onto the HUI from here would put it at approximately 85 (weíve been using 90 but 85 is more exact now that we know more about how components are aligning), which is above the 60 to 80 range, not that this area wonít be vexed if the GDM vexes lower trajectories as well given the sucking sound you will hear if stocks pull a 1987 would likely be Ďa recordí. Add to this one should only add to portfolios gingerly until the TSX Venture Index (CDNX) is vexing 400, which is another corresponding measure to keep an eye on, where it too is now set to collapse to the H&S MM denoted in Figure 2. Again, loyal subscribers would know this has been my multi-year target. (See Figure 2)

Figure 2


 

But itís taken patience to get to this point. And it will require more not to move too early in coming days as well.

 

Good investing will soon be possible in precious metals.

 

Captain Hook

 

The above was commentary that originally appeared at Treasure Chests for the benefit of subscribers on Monday, September 7, 2015.

Treasure Chests is a market timing service specializing in value based position trading in the precious metals and equity markets, with an orientation primarily geared to identifying intermediate-term swing trading opportunities, which is an investing style proven to yield successful outcomes in the longer term. Specific opportunities are identified utilizing a combination of fundamental, technical, and inter-market analysis. This style of investing has proven to be very successful for wealthy and sophisticated investors, as it reduces risk and enhances returns when the methodology is applied effectively. Those interested discovering more about how the strategies described above can enhance your wealth should visit our web site at http://www.treasurechests.info.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilizing methods believed reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Comments within the text should not be construed as specific recommendations to buy or sell securities. Individuals should consult with their broker and personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities. Do your own due diligence regarding personal investment decisions.

Copyright © 2015 www.treasurechests.info.  All rights reserved.

Unless otherwise indicated, all materials on these pages are copyrighted by www.treasurechests.info.  No part of these pages, either text or image may be used for any purpose other than personal use. Therefore, reproduction, modification, storage in a retrieval system or retransmission, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical or otherwise, for reasons other than personal use, is strictly prohibited without prior written permission.

 


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Monday, 21 September 2015 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2017



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.