news.goldseek.com >> 16 November 2009

Gold Going Parabolic
By: Captain Hook
Gold is in the headlines right now because of India’s announcement to buy half the announced IMF sale, and possibly more. But this is not why gold advanced so strongly yesterday. It blew past previous highs because we are in a significant cycle down time for equities right now, and the perception is if stocks are not to follow the natural path in this regard, authorities will need to hyperinflate.

news.goldseek.com >> 9 November 2009

At The Margin
By: Captain Hook
How can the stock market continue to set new rally related records week in and week out? Answer: As per our discussion last week, because at the margin, there have been enough bearish speculators, as measured by US index open interest put / call ratios, to continually squeeze prices higher.

news.goldseek.com >> 2 November 2009

Postponing Providence
By: Captain Hook
That’s the game – postponing providence – putting off the inevitable until the next guy’s shift. This is the cache of our political economy, as with all other comparables before it, now maturing into rot. All dominant cultures recede this way of course, dying from within as it were. And the American Empire is no different, with its hollowed out economy, markets, and values.

news.goldseek.com >> 26 October 2009

Not Inflation Or Deflation – But Speculation
By: Captain Hook
Call it what you want, the primary condition our condition is in is not inflation, or deflation, or even stagflation for that matter, although it’s much closer than the other two definitions in describing the macro. Why would the term stagflation better describe macro-conditions? Answer: Because the mature state of globalization that guarantees us a constant state of overproduction moving forward, which depresses prices, is being countered by monetary inflation, which has increased certain prices, but primarily only those under government influence, leaving the rest of the economy sluggish.

news.goldseek.com >> 19 October 2009

Loss Of Wealth
By: Captain Hook
Human beings are not designed to think in terms of loss, or at minimum, are not built to deal with it well psychologically. And if you look around one can see this in how we have structured our modern day society, with the economy counting on steady and consistent growth even if its not to be. Of course even though it’s not to be, we humans would prefer to be optimistic, and lie about the reality of the situation.

news.goldseek.com >> 13 October 2009

Other Peoples Money
By: Captain Hook
At the risk of getting ahead of myself prior to being able to confirm the turn, I am suggesting stock market action over the past week bears the distinct odor of a bull trap, with even informed technicians still waiting for a push to 50% retracements on the indexes.

news.goldseek.com >> 5 October 2009

Why The Dow / Gold Ratio Could Be On Its Way To Unity Soon
By: Captain Hook
As suggested in our last meeting, and supported in continuing technical analysis by Dave (which you can review at your convenience on the site), equities have yet to top out, however we are likely within just a few days / weeks of such an event.

news.goldseek.com >> 28 September 2009

Trade Wars Guarantee An End To The Party
By: Captain Hook
On one side of the formula we have the continued need for speed in monetary creation by whatever means, capably characterized by Doug Noland in his weekly commentary explaining that while it will all end badly, government largesse will likely get out of control before its all over. The point he is getting at here is that because of all it’s meddling, the government (and us) is locked in an inflation death grip it necessarily needs to keep building on or face implosion.

news.goldseek.com >> 21 September 2009

The Ratchet Effect
By: Captain Hook
It appears our self-serving bureaucracy thinks they can keep fooling the markets indefinitely, where now they have resorted to attempting to ratchet stocks higher against precious metals. Of course the funny part of it all is as you know from our last meeting precious metals charts are telling us it will take hyperinflation to keep equities moving higher however, as the dollar ($) decline is getting stretched to say the least.

news.goldseek.com >> 14 September 2009

You Don’t Mess With The Zohan
By: Captain Hook
You Don’t Mess With The Zohan is the title of a funny flick starring Adam Sandler from which I will borrow a sentiment that should apply to the breakouts in precious metals yesterday. And that is normally you don’t mess with breakouts like this, however in knowing gold and silver continue to be in play via our self-serving bureaucracy / price managers, paranoid as this may sound, I wouldn’t be surprised for a minute if these characters attempt to scuttle the rallies in coming weeks.

news.goldseek.com >> 31 August 2009

History Continues To Repeat
By: Captain Hook
Many are now talking about how the markets appear to be managed these days, and these people are now taking conspiracy theories in this regard far more seriously. And without a doubt the Fed and Treasury are working overtime to keep the bubbles afloat, the bubbles in both equities and debt.

news.goldseek.com >> 24 August 2009

The Fraud Of The Fed
By: Captain Hook
Far too many look for easy ways to get rich quick these days, only to be disappointed or shocked when reality bites in the end. Because of this there are no shortage of Ponzi like schemes characterizing the financial landscape, one by one being found out to be frauds, with Bernie Madoff at the top of the list in history thus far.

news.goldseek.com >> 17 August 2009

Forced Buying Puts Finishing Touches On Rally
By: Captain Hook
Forced mutual, pension, and hedge fund related buying could push equity prices higher in coming days, however if our views on the dollar $ are correct, any such buying should be fleeting, possibly even ending today if overnight reversals in various key stock markets have any predictive value.

news.goldseek.com >> 10 August 2009

History Repeating Right On Schedule
By: Captain Hook
Just about everybody has heard the truisms ‘history repeats’, and if this is not true ‘history rhymes’, however it’s been my observation that a far as present day stock market participants are concerned, not many take the validity of these statements as seriously as they should. After all, people are people right, even if they were acting in the context of another era, and in this case, other market bubbles.

news.goldseek.com >> 4 August 2009

Its Only Castles Burning
By: Captain Hook
‘Its only castles burning’ – A piercing lyric central to a Neal Young classic and also an appropriate sentiment with respect to the paper castles burning in the world of finance these days. Whether it’s a result of inflation or deflation – value is being lost – paper is burning – to reflect the value that never was.

news.goldseek.com >> 27 July 2009

Rearranging Deck Chairs On The U$$ Titanic
By: Captain Hook
America’s paper empire is slowly sinking into the sea, and all the powers that be can do about it is rearrange the deck chairs for a while as they wait for the inevitable. Increasingly, more and more people are comparing the US to Japan, and it’s 20-plus year bear market / economic doldrums, realizing try as they might, the prognosis for American is a match.

news.goldseek.com >> 20 July 2009

Bear’s Beware
By: Captain Hook
At the risk of sounding a little crazy in knowing the fundamentals are indeed ‘that bad’, this is a cautionary note to those who are short stocks to expect volatility moving forward, but not the kind you are hoping for. And hey, the technicals in the markets are no hell either.

news.goldseek.com >> 14 July 2009

The $64,000 Question
By: Captain Hook
Some might be reminded of the Abbott and Costello routine of ‘Who’s On First’ with this line of thought, but this is not the intention. The intention behind this line of thinking is to explain why stocks can go higher from here despite negative fundamental and technical underpinnings supporting them at present.

news.goldseek.com >> 6 July 2009

Race To Zero Acceleration A Certainty
By: Captain Hook
Just when you think you have it figured out – bang – something changes. And present circumstances are no exception to this rule. Last week it appeared conditions were forming to sponsor a significant sell-off in stocks / equities this summer / fall, where a combination of sentiment and internals were moving into alignment in this regard.

news.goldseek.com >> 29 June 2009

Green Shoots To Soggy Grass
By: Captain Hook
A skyrocketing yield curve is normally a sign the economy is dangerously heating up, and that market rates in fixed income securities are signaling the likelihood of higher administered rates soon as well. Along these lines then, short-term rates have been rising on the expectation that the Fed will need to talk about higher rates at its next meeting on July 22nd, with a corresponding collapse in both the yield curve and gold. It should be noted gold is tracing out an exact pattern match on the yield curve, and rate expectations.

news.goldseek.com >> 22 June 2009

Rhyming And Reason
By: Captain Hook, Treasure Chests
Will history repeat in terms of the widely followed stock market comparisons that many now put against present conditions. As you may know, often, when a system that is used to forecast financial markets becomes too popular, changes in outcomes occur despite previously tight correlations. And it could be argued we are at such a juncture now, as new services are cropping up everywhere in this regard.

news.goldseek.com >> 15 June 2009

Picasso Would Be Proud
By: Captain Hook
As suspected last week, mutual and hedge fund managers could not resist the temptation to push stocks higher in month end window dressing given the opportunity, so they did. And I wouldn’t doubt for a minute the bureaucracy’s price managers were told to make stocks look good at week’s end because of Geithnier’s trip to China, where he is on his first official US paper selling junket. There’s really no other explanation for why stocks mysteriously surged at the close on Friday due to futures buying.

news.goldseek.com >> 8 June 2009

The Summer Of Discontent
By: Captain Hook
The following study comparing the pattern in today’s Dow to the post crash Nikki, similar to our own findings, does a good job of talking about both near term and extended possibilities within a predominantly deflationary environment that would sponsor such an outcome. Within the context of this discussion, and again, a topic we have been focusing on in attempting to identify the eventual turn back down in the broad markets, in the above Sarel Oberholster correctly points out that although the Dow has almost achieved the same percentage gain witnessed in the Nikki’s post crash bounce (31% compared to 34%), timing wise, if the patterning is to be a closer match, stocks could remain buoyant for up to another four months.

news.goldseek.com >> 1 June 2009

Debt Is Your Worst Enemy
By: Captain Hook
Debt is your worst enemy right now – make no mistake about it. And the reasons for this understanding are plain for all to see, with the most profound being the next round of deleveraging might be just around the corner, meaning worsening asset price deflation would make it impossible for most to ever escape the debt death trap outside of a jubilee, which is the last thing our blood sucking financial institutions want.

news.goldseek.com >> 26 May 2009

It’s Pattern Recognition Time
By: Captain Hook
The dollar ($) is breaking down, and everybody is watching (including the Chinese), so it must be time to throw a deleveraging scare back into the market to affect a rally and support Treasuries. This is what the good conspiracy theorists are thinking right now. And you know what, not coincidentally this is actually the way things just might play out, looking like the markets are being managed right when it’s needed.

news.goldseek.com >> 18 May 2009

Appearances Can Be Deceiving
By: Captain Hook, Treasure Chests
The old adage ‘appearances can be deceiving’ can apply to many different situations, but for today, in our financial mania centric world, there is likely no better use of the term than as it applies to the various markets that characterize the landscape these days. In this respect, right now stocks appear to be discounting better times ahead with their more recent rebound, however even those who do not understand the real reasons why, know this to be a falsehood.

news.goldseek.com >> 11 May 2009

Natural Gas Is The Mania De Jour
By: Captain Hook
Many are wondering what the heck is going on in the natural gas (NG) market, because if it’s suppose to be such an essential commodity, why does the price keep crashing, especially with stability found in the larger equity complex? To answer this question properly, we must first set the stage with the appropriate background understandings, where because of the extremes in pricing we are seeing here, previous efforts in this regard now appear insufficient.

news.goldseek.com >> 4 May 2009

A Test Of Truth
By: Captain Hook, Treasure Chests
That’s what the stock market faces this coming week with technicals now sufficiently overbought to allow for a true test of the trend. Those who do not study history or cycles are interested to find out the nature of the beast. They are asking themselves, ‘is this a new bull market?’

news.goldseek.com >> 27 April 2009

Analog Comparisons
By: Captain Hook, Treasure Chests
Picking things up from the other day, and in an effort to continue being successful investors, we are here today to check the analog comparisons that have proven invaluable in aiding us identify pattern and timing elements in present day stock market movements.

news.goldseek.com >> 20 April 2009

A Pregnant Pause
By: Captain Hook
That’s where we are in terms of whether equities, and the inflation mindset, continue to fill with air past this point – it’s time for a pause. This is basically what Carl Swenlin is pointing out in making the observation intermediate-term technicals are now overbought, and that the stock market should pullback somewhat from here before building the necessary steam to produce a more lasting breakout.

news.goldseek.com >> 13 April 2009

Giving Up The Ghost – Revisited
By: Captain Hook
In the spirit of previous undertakings similarly focused on measuring the general sentiment of investors today, and in borrowing the title of a timely piece we penned last fall, we revisit the theme investors remain reticent about ‘Giving Up The Ghost’ on being bullish about stocks these days.

news.goldseek.com >> 6 April 2009

In Order Of Magnitude
By: Captain Hook
In order of magnitude, it’s important for those who pay attention to these things to note what is occurring in the economy and financial markets right now is of the highest degree in terms of importance (and movements), because the world’s reserve currency, the US Dollar ($), is in jeopardy of losing this role, which will change everything.

news.goldseek.com >> 30 March 2009

The Boys From Brazil
By: Captain Hook, Treasure Chests
As postured on these pages for some time now, seasonal inversions in trading patterns of markets tend to occur in mature markets due to sentiment / structural irregularities. In the case of the US stock market, what has essentially occurred is because the general investing population has been ‘dumbed down’ due to excessively good economic conditions over an extended period, along with powerful mind-numbing corporate propaganda, their aversion to risk has been dangerously tempered.

news.goldseek.com >> 24 March 2009

March Madness
By: Captain Hook, Treasure Chests
Bullion and precious metals shares will undoubtedly decline once it’s understood fear is coming out of the market(s), however as described a few weeks back at the onset of the correction, gold should only drop back into the $850 to $900 range in a sloppy test of the megaphone breakout, with the indexes bolstered by generally buoyant equity markets. This means weakness should be bought, but patience into next month might prove to be a virtue. As an indication of what to expect, I am looking for the Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI) to drop back down into the 250 area minimally, and below possibly, as late comers to the party are scared out of their positions once it’s thought the sky is not falling.

news.goldseek.com >> 16 March 2009

Throw Mama From The Train
By: Captain Hook
Throw Mama From The Train – a funny and entertaining movie depending on who you are. But more so in terms of present circumstances in the stock market – a reflection of what we must live with right now as well. Mama was demeaning and aggravating in the movie, just like the market(s) in real life today. And unfortunately it’s enough to make people throw their sensibilities away.

news.goldseek.com >> 8 March 2009

Getting From A To B
By: Captain Hook
Are you scared yet? You should be because not many others are in spite of the growing carnage in the financial markets these days. This is set to change in a hurry however, where borrowing from the Kübler-Ross model on ‘death and dying’, which is the same process investors are going through right now, if I am right about this, in getting from A to B, with A being denial and B anger, the stock market could do the unimaginable.

news.goldseek.com >> 2 March 2009

A Brave New World
By: Captain Hook, Treasure Chests
Or should I say, one will need be increasingly brave to live in a rapidly changing environment, strewn with perils and pitfalls not contemplated by the masses (mob) just yet. Slowly but surely process is taking hold in this regard however, and it will accelerate and spread like wildfire as the economy continues to contract, and conditions are officially deemed to be in Depression on a global scale.

news.goldseek.com >> 23 February 2009

Ineffective Alphabet Soup Policy Could Trigger Deflation Scare
By: Captain Hook
The markets are falling apart much faster than originally anticipated, which is troubling with respect to the inflation case. This is why we highlighted the scary reversals in M1 and M3 growth rates earlier in the week, to alert you to the possibility conditions might progress such that general price weakness could develop moving forward. While it’s true such discussion might be premature, and it would take time for such reversals to have lasting effect, never the less, it’s disturbing to see money supply trends possibly turning down at this time with a major sell signal in the stock market now in the bag.

news.goldseek.com >> 17 February 2009

Reviving The Patient
By: Captain Hook, Treasure Chests
Five trillion dollars, that’s what it’s going to cost for the good / bad bank and ballooning stimulus plans. Now that’s serious money, not too mention serious inflation by strict definition in the sense money supply has been rising, but prices have not.

news.goldseek.com >> 11 February 2009

Precious Metals Regaining Monetary Status
By: Captain Hook, Treasure Chests
Loose in the head. As opposed to Hank Paulson, that’s what traders now think of Geithner since he angered China before even getting in the door. They think he’s loose in the head. So, delayed as the reaction was since he uttered the words Thursday, the trade bought gold, sold bonds, and who knows, maybe even reversed the dollar ($) despite the fact stocks look set to plunge.

news.goldseek.com >> 2 February 2009

Neither Man Nor Machine
By: Captain Hook, Treasure Chests
The terrible price action in the stock market raises the question, ‘are we on the right track expecting seasonals and the multiple post-crash historical patterns that have proven reliable in forecasting higher prices moving forward from here to repeat; or, is the market condition so far advanced that these things are known by the investing population, potentially altering the outcome?’

news.goldseek.com >> 27 January 2009

To Bounce Or Not To Bounce – That Is The Question
By: Captain Hook
Like the others, it appears what was formerly reliable sentiment related analysis associated with the study of open interest put / call ratios has now succumb to an increasingly mature market(s) condition. Of course, technically, such a conclusion could be viewed as incorrect in that the reason stocks did not go up this week was not because of selling, but because of a buyers strike.

news.goldseek.com >> 19 January 2009

Gold Is A Beach Ball Being Held Under Water
By: Captain Hook
Perhaps the best analogy to explain the fundamental condition of gold is that it’s like a beach ball being held under water, where at some point it will escape the clutches of its oppressor, springing it into the light of day for all to see its true worth. Even a child could understand such a condition when explained in terms of a beach ball. When it comes to the day-to-day trials and tribulations of gold however, it’s not that simple unfortunately, because although gold is the oldest form of true money on the planet, it’s also a political metal caught up in the biggest fiat currency / Ponzi scheme in the history of mankind.

news.goldseek.com >> 12 January 2009

US Index Open Interest Put / Call Ratio Analysis
By: Captain Hook
Well, Santa has come and gone and provided those who bet on a Christmas time rally a nice return, the best ever in fact with respect to the broads. After such an outcome, it’s traditional to see a pullback to work-off an overbought condition when the majority of traders return from holidays, so don’t be surprised if the broad markets fall early this week.

news.goldseek.com >> 6 January 2009

Bond Bubble Bursting?
By: Captain Hook
They’ve done it now. The Fed has revealed the level of panic they are in behind the scenes by cutting rates to zero and promising unbounded quantitative easing. Here, it should be noted that based on remarks from the Fed Policy Statement Tuesday, quantitative easing is now set to go beyond the bailout style monetiziations of financials that have primarily characterized re-inflation efforts under the gaze of Bernanke and Paulson so far to include just about anybody who needs ‘social assistance’, which apparently includes all degrees of bad investors / speculators these days.

news.goldseek.com >> 22 December 2008

They Just Don’t Get It
By: Captain Hook
Most financial commentators, even the well-known and respected ones, just don’t get it. They don’t understand what’s happening in macro-conditions because they fail to accept the understanding that sentiment, as measured by speculator betting practices in the various options markets populating the landscape, is the single most important driver of prices in our mature fiat currency based financial markets.