* MNMM.OB 24 --60% copper bonus (low grades), start up ~ $250 mil
ECU.V 26 --50% gold bonus;
UNCN.OB 44 --lease expiring mid 2004; risky
* = I own shares
Explorers (by market cap):
III.TO / IPMLF.PK
IMR.V / IMXPF.OB
VGZ VGZ.TO 16 --significant gold bonus (almost half of "silver equiv" are gold)
* CDU.V / CUEAF.PK 44-75 "exploration potential"
TVI.TO / TVIPF.PK --current producer of a dore silver bar 96% silver, 4% gold
* NPG.V / NVPGF.PK 49-234 "exploration potential"
EPZ.V / ESPZF.PK
IAU.V / ITDXF.PK 15
HGM.V / HOGOF.PK
MMG.V / MMEEF.PK
* = I own shares
** = "in ground" includes all "silver oz. in the ground" the same, but they are NOT EQUAL. Some are more certain and others are more speculative. They range from most certain to least certain such as: "proven & probable reserves," "measured, indicated, inferred resources"
The single number next to each stock symbol above represents the approximate number of ounces of silver in the ground you are buying title to when you invest the equivalent of one ounce of silver by buying shares in the company at current prices. (It does not include zinc, or copper, or lead, but it does include gold at a 1:10 ratio of gold:silver.)
To quickly "tab" down to the company you are interested in, note the symbol. Then hit "control-F" to "FIND" the symbol below.
WEEKLY COMMENTARY (All new in this section):
Please keep sending me tips on silver mining companies. But due to the growing popularity of this report, please be aware that I don't have the time to diligently research every undescribed tip that comes my way each day, I'm only human. There are even tips on this list that I have not been able to research. Therefore, please try and include as much basic information as you can, such as the company name, ticker, phone number, & url. To get me to really pay attention to your tip, include also the following two key pieces of information. 1. shares fully diluted. 2. ounces of silver in the ground as "indicated, inferred resources" or at least the "exploration potential"--which is not a technical term. Since I am not getting as many great tips as I used to, I believe I've already found most of the best opportunities by now. But I know there are other opportunities out there; there always are, but they are probably small ones.
For all who tried to get on my email list for this "free weekly silver report": email notifications of where this list can be posted did not go out last week due to technical problems sending out large emailings. But I did copy everyone's email, and the list is ok, and growing. There is a lot of interest in this weekly report. I'm very busy. It takes me 4-5 hours of intense number crunching to compile and compute the data in this report each Friday from 2 pm to 6-7pm. (And that does not include research!)
And the silver companies are busy too.
In the last month, big money has literally been thrown, shotgun style, at so many of the silver companies on this list. Here's a recap of the private placements, and amounts raised by some of the companies:
CDE: Issued 32 mil new shares late Oct. 2003, at about $3.3/share?
MAI.V To raise $6.6 million Cdn
CZN.TO closed $7 million Cdn
FAN.TO to raise 5.7 million
ASM.V to raise $2 million
ADB.V closed $5 million financing
FCO.TO announced an $8 million financing.
III.TO Nov. 6th PP
The following is a "must read": Ted Butler's best ever explanation of how silver is manipulated lower than it should be.
Ted correctly points out that a lower price creates excessive demand from consumers. However, what Ted Butler does not point out, and neglects to mention, is that a perpetually low price also creates lack of demand from investors who are "trend investors".
To scare away investors--that is the entire reason silver is manipulated in the first place. Only the trend investors can be deceived. The problem is that nearly everyone is a trend investor. So few investors understand value. If people knew the facts and used their brains, the available above-ground refined silver would be gone by tomorrow, and the price would be well over $20/oz.
~15,000,000 million dollars: the value of the U.S. bond market
~10,000,000 million dollars: the value of the U.S. stock market
~10,000,000 million dollars: the value of the U.S. annual GDP
9,000,000 million dollars: the value of M3 (money in the banks)
2,212,000 million dollars: the value of the U.S. annual budget 2003
1,600,000 million dollars: the value of the all the world's gold at $400/oz.
277,000 million dollars: the value of the Market Cap of Microsoft
180,000 million dollars: the value of the debt of Ford Motor Co.
~100,000 million dollars: the value of the all the world's gold stocks
~7,000 million dollars: the value of the all the world's silver stocks
312 million dollars: the value of 59 mil oz. of COMEX silver.
The sheer stupidity of big money not recognizing the value of the world's remaining silver is utterly shocking to the rational mind.
Clearly, bond holders are the largest fools, utterly deceived, and totally unaware of the situation. All my readers should understand and know that bonds were originally invented to suck the capital and money (gold and silver) away from the people. Bonds today are a paper promise to repay paper. What a con game! Are bond holders conservative and safe? No, they are fools! There is nothing safe about holding a paper promise to receive more paper when we have been experiencing hyperinflation for the past two and a half years!
And the fund investors who buy paper silver futures contracts instead of real silver are a very odd bunch of fools, for they should realize that nobody can deliver the 800+ million ounces of silver promised in the paper contracts and options that does not exist. It's like the paper longs are betting on the bank run happening, but they all are making sure they get at the end of the long line. Instead, they could go front and center, where there is an open window available where you can go and get physical silver, and nobody is there. Idiots! If you know a bank run is going to happen, and you are actually willing to place your money on the line--that it will happen, then go and withdraw your money before it is too late! Don't bet on it happening, which, if it does happen, your contracts will be defaulted on! Amazingly blind idiots. Wake up!
There is big money chasing the silver stocks right now; very smart money. Soon, perhaps in anywhere from a week to a few months months of gains like we've seen, the silver stocks will no longer be a better investment than silver itself, as most are today. And the money will then be forced to pour into physical silver, just like it's pouring into the silver stocks now.
And then, the silver stocks will be dragged higher, instead of leading higher.
Back in 2002, the gold stocks moved first, up big. Then, gold moved up big, while many of the gold stocks stood still or declined (partly due to the Rand strengthening). Now, silver stocks are booming--more than gold stocks did. Silver is sure to follow.
Take profits by moving out of silver stocks that are overpriced, and by moving into silver stocks that are significantly better values.
Take profits in silver! I can't stress this enough. Silver will one day outperform the silver stocks, if the stocks get over priced, as some, I feel, already are. I don't think we are quite there yet over all, perhaps a lot of the best silver stocks will move up 3-4 fold better than silver from here, but then, that will be it, I think. (and there may be a few undiscovered potential ten baggers out there) Then, if not sooner, silver itself will rocket, and perhaps outperform most of the stocks.
Even though silver moved up well this week, most of the silver stocks still outperformed silver. It will not always be so. To keep track of this, I value each stock in terms of cost of silver to buy the silver in the ground. This keeps valuations comparable relative to silver.
The only reason I buy a silver stock is on the expectation that I will be able to buy more physical silver, as the stock outperforms silver. If this is not a realistic expectation, then I'd prefer silver over the stocks, by far. There is much less risk with silver in the hand than with stocks.
On November 23-24 I will be at the San Francisco Gold & Precious Metals conference, which is enjoying record-breaking pre-registration.
For details on the show, (free, but you need to register) www.iiconf.com/
How bullish am I on silver? Think: "75 times infinity" dollars per ounce.
I believe the dollar will eventually be destroyed, likely within my lifetime, hence the "infinity" part. I believe the ratio of silver to gold may be equal during a spike, when the market realizes that above-ground refined silver is more rare than gold. Thus, silver may outperform gold by a factor of 75 times better. Currently, the ratio is 75 ounces of silver can buy one ounce of gold or 75:1.
I may end up selling silver for gold, some at the 10:1 silver to gold ratio, some more at 5:1, and I would sell any silver remaining at a 1:1 ratio, that we may hit during a supply/demand crunch during a paper money collapse.
For a list of bullion dealers:
If you are an Accredited or Sophisticated investor and want information I may find out about private placement opportunities, (This is not a solicitation for any stock, and I'm not brokering any securities.) email me: email@example.com
For a list of Brokers that handle Canadian issues and/or pink sheets:
I count a company's ounces of gold as 10 oz of silver. Why? Because I have a very strong positive bias in favor of silver over gold.
Given my bias in favor of much, much higher silver prices, then, to me, the grades of silver are far less important than buying more oz. in the ground. More oz. in the ground at a lower cost is the most important consideration for me.
My method is simple. Cost per ounce in the ground. How much do you get (silver reserve totals), and how much does it cost (market cap)? The cost is the market cap divided by the silver reserve totals. Cheaper is better. Buy low, sell high.
Disclaimers, Warnings, and Advice: I have gathered the information below over the course of several months. I believe it is accurate to the best of my ability. I may have made mistakes. I probably did. I'm human. I have collected the information from public sources such as company web sites and public information found at yahoo.com to get the stock prices. This report in no way guarantees the accuracy of the information below, since the information may change at any time. The number of outstanding shares can change as a company engages in new share issues to raise more capital through private placements, or if outstanding warrants (and options) are exercised and converted into shares, or if shares are bought back. Shares can be consolidated, or split. The number of ounces of silver in the ground can also change, as these are often only estimates. The number can also change up or down, depending on drilling results.
This report is not investment advice. This report contains information that may or may not be up to date, and may be inaccurate. I urge you to contact the company and do your own research to verify the information contained in this report.
This report is not an offer to buy or sell any securities. I am not a broker. Only your broker can buy or sell securities for you.
I urge you to consult with your investment advisor to determine whether these kinds of investments are right for you.
I also caution you to be aware of your investment advisor's advice, they are sometimes paid to push things like mutual funds, bonds and other securities that may not be in your best interest to buy. Some investment houses are short physical metal, and thus, they may attempt to strongly discourage you from buying precious metal or precious metals investments. I believe that the propaganda machine in support of frauds such as bonds and the dollar is so strong, that they may even believe what they say when they give bad advice to avoid the safety and protection of precious metals. It is most likely that they simply do not understand the precious metals market as well as you do.
All total estimates of "ounces in the ground" can vary widely. There are "proven and probable reserves" which are the highest category of certainty which is obtained through many drill holes, and then at the least accurate, there are "inferred resources" which are hardest to estimate. Additionally, every miner always has "more silver properties that need to be explored, which probably contain more silver". For the purposes of this report, I have added all those numbers together. It is believed that all these "ounce in the ground" estimates can be profitably mined at $5-6 per ounce silver, or lower. Thus, I believe that when silver trades for $15/oz. or above, that all of these ounces can be mined at a substantial profit.
I may be wrong. (I probably make mistakes in every article, and there have been updates and corrections made each week, especially as prices change.)
Mining is a risky business. You need to be willing to sustain a total loss of your investment for various unforeseen accidents. Silver stock companies can do stupid things to shareholders such as take on debt, or issue more stock at too low prices which reduces the percentage of the company you may own (dilution). Yet, they need to issue shares to raise capital for drilling, and then an even bigger dilution to build a working mine. They may sell YOUR silver too cheaply, or worse, hedge the price of YOUR silver just as it begins to go up if they lock in a price which then proves to be too low if the dollar is destroyed. Mining is a risky business as estimates of assets in the ground can change. There is political risk and environmental risk. They can't franchise the business, are stuck in one location, are subject to government confiscation, or taxes, or union wage negotiations, and corporate looting.
Do your own research. Be responsible for your own investment decisions. Again, please, before investing in a mining company, call up the company, and speak either with the CEO or the Investor Relations contact person.
So, at the very least, check the company web site, read the annual reports, check my numbers, check my math, and email the company. That's what they are there for, to answer your questions, and to speak about the opportunity of the company. Don't trust everything you read over the internet. I am a biased source. I own silver mining stocks. And I'm not a broker, nor an investment advisor. I'm just a private investor trying to make sense of this crazy world, and sharing my information and thoughts on silver companies.
This report may be copied, and transmitted by other people, and may become outdated by the time it reaches you.
I can't tell you how you should invest your money, of course. The reason is that I don't know how convinced you are of the silver bull market, nor do I know how soon you will be needing the money back, so I don't know how long you can wait to see results, nor do I know how much liquidity you need. Nor do I know the size of the money you have to invest. It is very hard to invest large quantities of money in a small market cap stock.
That being said, my investment strategy seems to be working for me, so far. And so, here is how I have valued the following silver companies to make my own investment decisions.
(Market cap is always converted to US dollars and denominated in US dollars because I divide by ounces of silver, which are also denominated in dollars)
BHP Billiton Ltd (BHP)
--'produces 40 mil oz. silver annually from one mine'
Additional comments: unfortunately, BHP has a 49 Billion market cap, so we can't buy BHP for the "silver exposure". IE, $49 Billion / oh, say, 1000 million?????= $49/oz.
Hello? BHP? By all means, keep mining the silver if you want the silver exposure, and want to be in the silver busines. But don't sell the silver. Keep it. Let the profits of your entire company accrue as an increasing physical supply of physical silver. In fact, do as Buffett did, and buy more silver if you can. It would be infinitely easier for you to buy silver from yourself than it would be to buy 40 million ounces of silver from the COMEX, which, today, might be impossible.
Grupo Mexico SA de CV (GMBXF.PK)
"Grupo Mexico ranks as the world's third largest copper producer, fourth largest producer of silver and fifth largest producer of zinc."
Compania de Minas Buenaventura SA (BVN)
- Peru´s largest publicly traded precious metals company
--produces over 10Moz of silver per year
--way too expensive for the silver alone: 3.6 Billion market cap.
Phone: (208) 769-4100
109 mil shares @ $6.91 share
$758 million Market Cap (MC)
near zero debt, cash: $113 mil
(est. 2003 production 9 mil oz. silver)
(the La Camorra gold mine, 412,000 oz gold.) ... (x 350/5 = 28 mil silver equivalent oz.)
San Sebastian silver mine, (proven & probably reserves) 8.7 mil (produced 3 mil)
the Greens Creek silver mine (proven & probably reserves) 31 mil (produced 3 mil)
the Lucky Friday mine (proven & probably reserves) 14 mil. (produced 2 mil)
Total silver = 53.7 million oz.
Plus 412,000 oz. gold x 10 = 4.1 mil oz silver equiv.
Total silver equiv. reserves = 57.8 mil oz.
(Since my method values silver in the ground as a key asset, I should also value the cash as a "silver asset" which will be "marked to market" if silver goes up, and cash goes down. If HL is smart, they should be able to turn the cash into increased "silver exposure" either through buying silver properties, silver equities, or physical silver.)
($113 million cash /5.39/oz = 21 mil "silver equiv" oz.)
(Since silver moved up last week, HL's 133 mil in cash lost 1.3 million oz. of silver value.)
21 + 53.7 = 74.7
$758 mil MC / 74.7 mil "oz." = $10.14/oz.
You get "approx" .53 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: HL has more oz. than listed in the "proven & probable" category used in this calculation. Vein mining makes reserve calculations difficult, and HL has rarely had more than about a 3-4 year picture of reserves ahead of them.
I decided to count their papar cash as if it could be silver, but it still does not help boost their valuation much. They are still the most expensive company on the list. If HL bought 22 mil oz. of physical silver, they might break the back of the silver market, and significantly boost their own profitability. I think HL investors are paying way too much for HL, and the company insiders seem to have no idea their stock is so overvalued.
Another way to check the value of HL is too look at profit, since they are active miners. They mine 9 million ounces of silver a year. What's the profit on that today? Very little. I think they had a loss in the 3rd quarter. Total "cash costs" are $3.68/oz. (and that includes gold credits) Profit at $5.05/oz. is $1.37/oz x 9 mil oz. annual production = $12.3 million annual profit. Give a PE of 666/12.3 = 54. That's a very high P/E, which means HL is very expensive.
Why does HL hold $113 million dollars worth of cash at the beginning of a bull market in silver? It makes no sense to me. Cash is trash in inflation. They should be buying physical silver, or, use that cash to buy other silver resources in the ground, like the undervalued silver stocks.
210 mil shares (Issued 32 mil new shares late Oct. 2003)
@ share price $4.29
$900 mil MC
cash $38 mil
San Bartolome (Bolivia) reserves 146 mil silver
Silver Valley Silver reserves 32 mil silver
Rochester reserves 43 mil silver
Cerro Bayo reserves 3.7 mil silver
Total: 224.7 mil silver
(to Produce 14.6 mil oz. silver in 2003)
$900 mil MC / 224.7 mil oz = $4.00/oz.
You get "approx" 1.34 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: CDE issued new shares last week. CDE continued to lose money in third quarter 2003, a loss of 10 cents/share, and they realized low prices for silver sales, $4.77. I believe they have hedged their gold production at low prices.
Again, their listing of ounces is in the "reserves" category (more certain) not the "resources" category, which is less certain. They probably have "resources" but like HL and Industrias Penoles, they give no estimates.
CDE and HL moved up in price significantly this week. Most likely due to new investors who know very little about how overpriced these two NYSE listed stocks really are, but all they may feel is that "silver stocks will outperform silver". But I don't think there is any reason for CDE and HL to continue to outperform silver from this point at today's stock prices. These two stocks have already had their run up. The johnny-come-latelies who bought these stocks last week will get some benefit, but not as much as if they had done their homework, or bought physical silver, in my opinion.
397.5 mil shares outstanding (2002 annual unchanged since 2001)
$1,093.5 mil MC
419 proven and probable reserves of silver (from 2002 annual report on website)
$1,093.5 mil MC / 419 oz. silver = $2.60/oz.
You get "approx" 2.06 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Industrias Penoles is the world's top producer of refined silver. They actually derrive more revenue from silver than any other source. But they lost money in 2002.
78.5 million oz. silver produced by the metals division in 2002, and 1 mil oz. gold.
I think Industrias Penoles should stop mining silver if they are doing it at a loss. Basic econ 101, right? Don't engage in uneconomical activity. Perhaps they have a small gain this year with improved prices? Regardless, they should realize that silver in the ground is an asset, and also that silver in the hand is an asset. If they do make a profit, I hope they decide to keep the form of their profits in silver, or at least, pay out a dividend in silver.
Their oz. numbers are "proven & probable reserves", which is much more certain than most of the others which are mostly "inferred and indicated resources." They undoubtedly have "inferred and indicated resources" in addition to the "proven & probable reserves," I just could not find any info on that at the website or in the annual report.
GRS / GAM.TO
Phone: (902) 468-0614
fully diluted 52 mil shares
@ share price $5.25
$273 mil MC
"With the drilling of over 179 holes totalling over 33,700-metres, the resource calculation contains 761,000 gold ounces and 38.2-million silver ounces in the measured and indicated categories and a further 925,000 gold ounces and approximately 45-million silver ounces in the inferred category."
Total gold: 1.7 mil oz. x 10 = 17 mil silver equiv.
Total silver: 83 mil oz.
Total silver equiv = 100 mil oz.
$273 mil MC / 100 mil oz. = $2.73/oz.
You get "approx" 1.97 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: At current prices of a 70:1 silver:gold ratio, about 58% of the company is in gold, 41% silver. Gold equiv oz. is about 3 mil oz. total. Cash cost is $85/oz. Life of mine is 7 years. At $385 gold, should produce $900 mil oz. profit over the life of the mine. Not bad for the current $182 MIL MC... even though the "silver in the ground" cost is currently high. Therefore, my valuation method undercounts the gold componant, and undercounts current producers. But that is intended, however, because I believe silver has over 7 times the potential as gold. My comparison method does not say that the companies that cost more can't bring a reasonable profit to the shareholder. My comparison method does tend to say that the profits will be higher for the silver companies that cost less.
There's just not a lot of silver exposure here for the price. But with the high grades, and "gold bonus" the risk is lower, and the profits should be here for those who want more safety in a stock pick.
And they are "rapidly expanding" resources & reserves with round-the-clock drilling of 4 rigs.
MAI.V / MNEAF.OB
IR Tel: (604) 689-7017
37 mil shares outstanding on February 5, 2003
finncing to be closing shortly, raised $6.6 mil CAN.
@ 30 cents placed..
+22 mil shares + 1/2 warrant
59 mil shares outstanding
73 mil fully diluted as of Nov. 2003
@ share $.475 CAN x .77 = $.37 US
$27 mil MC
owns 49% of the resource: "55 mil silver equiv. oz. resource" back in 2001. AT 60:1 silver:gold when gold was about $300/oz., about half/half silver and gold.
Estimated: 27.5 mil oz silver
Estimated: 27.5 mil oz. "silver equiv" of gold.
/ 6 = 4.58 mil oz. silver equiv at 10:1 ratio.
Total: 27.5 + 4.6 = 32 mil oz. silver equiv. (x .49 = 15 mil oz.)
They will be exploring for more.
2.2 km stretch, open another 2.7, plus 3 other vein systems. significant high grade silver exploration potential. 7000 meters of diamond drilling. Plus a copper project, billion ton ore deposit.
$27 mil MC / 15 mil = $1.77/oz.
You get "approx" 3.02 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Between weekly reports 7-8, I did not know how much of the 55 mil oz. was gold or silver. Then, I got better information from the company. About half was gold value, half was silver value at 60:1. So, I count gold less. Then, I learned the deposit was only 49% owned. Then, I leared about the nearly 50% dilution with the new financing. I have never seen a company valuation report change so quickly on this report, from about 20 oZ. to 3 oz.
Lesson: Do your own due diligence (research), and beware of stock dilution.
Maybe I should re-classify min andes as an explorer?
31 mil shares
$238 mil MC
measured & indicated 2.3 mil oz gold, 116 mil oz. silver inferred 1.1 mil oz. gold, 40 mil oz. silver
Totals: 3.4 mil oz. gold, 156 mil oz. silver.
~ silver conversion = 3.4 x 10 = 34 mil silver equiv + 156 mil oz. silver = 190 mil oz. silver
(only 40% is silver, the rest gold)
$238 mil MC / 190 mil oz. = $1.25/oz.
You get "approx" 4.30 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Well over half the value here is the gold, again, which my method significantly undervalues due to my bias in favor of silver. At 385/oz gold and 5/oz silver, $1309 million (62%) is in gold, and $780 million (37%) is in silver.
36.6 mil shares
$560 mil MC
San Cristobal (Bolivia) (proven & probably reserves) 454 mil silver
(forecast capital costs for construction to total approximately $435 million)
(Produced zero silver in 2002)
7.8 billion pounds of zinc, and 2.9 billion pounds of lead
$560 mil MC / 454 mil oz = $1.23/oz.
You get "approx" 4.36 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Apex silver has come down significantly from a high of $18/share in early August, and primarily has institutional investors.
Apex is still way too expensive--especially since they are not producing. But they do have "high grades", but a part of the high grade story is that this one has a lot of zinc. That's an added bonus that is not factored in to my method of valuation. Several writers have been saying zinc prices will be heading up soon, so that's another bonus. Plenty of zinc is especially good if zinc is moving up in price. And, they are not mining now, but are waiting for higher silver prices. That's also a plus. The management also seems to understand that silver will move upwards a lot. Another plus. Finally, George Soros, Billionaire, owns a bit of this one, just under 10% I read recently. Another plus, in general, for the silver market if Billionaires are paying attention to it.
* CZN.TO / CZICF.PK --(I own shares)
45.1 mil shares (fully diluted) as of Sept., 2003
65 mil shares fully diluted when the Oct 16th Private placement is filled.
@ Share Price $1.35 CAN x .77 dollar/CAN = $1.03 US
$67 mil MC
not mining ($20 mil needed to finish & start the mine) ($100 mil worth of mining infrastructure in place!)
~70 mil oz. (IN ZONE 3 only!! of 12 zones! This company seems to be greatly under-reporting their silver reserves. Their 18 year mine plan consists of zone 3 only, but there are 12 mineralized zones on the property.) Really, perhaps well over 100 mil oz. silver.
$67 mil MC / 70 mil oz. = $.96/oz.
You get "approx" 5.58 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
I believe Canadian Zinc will have more profit than Hecla Mining, and will also have significantly more exposure to rising silver prices.
I would like the company to privide an estimate of the silver on the rest of their properties, but their mine plan consisted only of zone 3 at the moment. The rest must remain "exploration potential" for now.
To get the mine up and running, they might be able to pay back such debt within 2 years, but I would hope they would avoid debt, and raise the capital as the share price begins to approach $2/share or more, and do a final public offering between $2-4/share.
I note several very, very positive things about this company.
1. This was the mining operation set up by the Hunt brothers, the major silver investors in the silver spike to $50/oz. in 1980 who were destroyed by their own debts and margin calls as a result of the COMEX rule changes and silver short sale manipulation. The Hunts spent $50 million building infrastructure to get the mine running. They were 90% complete when bankruptcy hit. The value of those buildings is now $100 million, and the mine only needs about $20 million (CAN) ($15 mil US) to get the mine up and running. That's much cheaper than other cost estimates of other operations.
2. The 70 million oz. of silver estimate is for zone 3 only. But there are 12 zones on the property. The zone 3 estimate is for a 10 year mine plan that involves mining zone 3 at current metals prices. The company can mine, at a profit, at current silver and zinc prices.
3. High Grade ores:
12% zinc/ton; = 240 lbs. zinc/ton x 42 cents/lb. = $101/ton for the zinc.
10.1% lead/ton = 202 lbs. lead/ton x 27 cents/lb. = $55/ton for the lead.
6 oz. silver/ton x $5.11/oz. = $31/ton for the silver.
0.4% copper/ton = 8 lbs. copper/ton x 90 cents/lb. = $7/ton for the copper.
4. My method of valuation: If I counted the zinc as silver, then the price of this company would be something like four times cheaper than it is based on my "valuation method". If I counted the lead as silver, then this company would be about 4-5 times cheaper.
Update: The recent private placement was just expanded to the maximum size allowed by the shareholders, because it was heavily over-subscribed. Sophisticated and Accredited investors wanted in on this one at .50 cents--and judging by the recent share price, they were not mistaken!
I own shares of CZN.TO
37 mil shares
@ share price $1.44 (CAN) x .77 dollar/CAN = $1.10 US
$41 mil MC
From the Company's main page at their url:
"As at December 31, 2001, First Silver's mineable reserves were 12 million ounces of silver and inferred resources totaled 30 million ounces of silver. The mine is developing a 1000 plus meter exploration drift to upgrade currently identified inferred resources to mineable ore reserves and to discover new reserves."
12 + 30 = 42 mil oz.
$41 mil MC / 42 mil oz. = $.97/oz.
You get "approx" 5.5 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: This is a high grade, producing miner. The high grades are a plus. Some say that a producing miner is also a plus. They are also actively exploring, another plus.
* CFTN.PK (I own shares)
801-756-1414 Ken Friedman
45 mil shares fully diluted (Oct. 2003)
@ $1.01/share US
$45.5 mil MC
http://www.cliftonmining.com/wsreview.htm --source of 100 mil oz. resources est.
"A previous geologist has talked about a possible resource of 1 billion oz. of silver, and 5 million oz. of gold."
100 mil oz. silver
+500,000 oz. gold x 10 = 5 mil oz. silver equiv.
= 105 mil oz. silver.
up to 1000 mil oz. silver "exploration potential".
Clifton sold up to 50% of the project to Dumont Nickel for $5 million to be paid over time.
50% x 105 = 52.5 million oz.
50% x 1000 = 500 mil oz. "exploration potential"
$45.5 mil MC / 52.5 mil oz. = $.86/oz.
You get "approx" 6.22 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
Additional comments: Note the "exploration potential". This is about 10 times cheaper, like 8 cents/oz, or you "might" get 62 oz. in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
I think the value of this one went up hard last week due to people looking at the exploration value here. Perhaps I should have bought more than I did. (I feel the same this week! Ugh!)
For more info on what's going on with Clifton, see www.dumontnickel.com, JV partner.
Clifton also has a patent on a "super" colloidal silver solution made with 10,000 volts that adds oxygen that gives it more powerful antibacterial properties, and is safer since it uses less silver, which would prevent "blue skin" argyria. Normal colloidal silver that you can make at home with 30 volts works to kill bacteria by disrupting the oxygen metabolism of the cell wall, killing bacteria with oxygen. The market for safe antibiotics is in the multi Billions of dollars.
I own a few shares of CFTN.PK.
MGR.V / MGRSF.PK
18.7 mil shares outstanding
@ share price $2.50 CAN x .77 = $1.92 US
$36 mil MC
inferred resource: 45 mil oz. silver + 1 mil oz gold.
1 mil oz. gold = + 10 mil oz. silver equiv
"The estimate does not address significant additional mineralized structures known to be present on the property, or the potential for large strike extensions of known high-grade zones."
$36 mil MC / 55 mil oz. = $.65/oz.
You get "approx" 8.2 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
February 2003 presentation reported total reserves including peru stockpiles of 874.3 million ounces
$588 mil MC / 874.3 mil oz. = $.67/oz.
You get "approx" 8.01 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional Comments: PAAS is one of the few silver producers on this list. Thus, they are a "silver miner" as their investor relations person will painstakingly point out. The other companies who do not mine silver, but merely own silver properties and drill them, are not "silver miners," nor are they "silver mining companies". They are "silver properties," or "silver opportunities," or "silver speculations," I guess. Ok, but that still does not justify selling silver at firesale prices, in my book.
PAAS recently went into debt in order to ramp up production. I am strongly biased against debt. But it's a convertible debenture, so the debt can be converted into stock. They know and believe higher silver prices are coming, which is great, and their strategy is to be in solid production mode when the higher price hits. In the meantime, though, the extra production will delay the inevitable silver boom, and they are destroying shareholder value.
The following profile on Apolo gold is a clear example of how to send me a tip. Although several others told me about apolo, I didn't have time to follow up on it, until this came in. This tip was so well done, I'm adding it here in full. (I didn't even have time to decide whether to buy this one this week.)
Apolo Gold Inc (APLL.OB)
39 mil shares
@ share price = 0.32 US
$12.48 mil MC
Total silver = 11,313,313 oz
Total gold = 802,564 x 10 = 8,025,640 oz
Total = 19,338,953 oz
http://www.apologold.com/imr.htm#NUP’s FEASIBILITY STUDY
$12.48 mil MC / 19 mil oz. = $0.65/oz
You get "approx" 8.2 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Okay, okay, that's not exactly cheap by your standards but consider what will happen in the next twelve months:
"The open pit operation to obtain the mineralized gold and silver material is expected to start in December 2003. All necessary personnel will be at the mine site by November 15, 2003. In the first 12 months of operation, the Company expects to produce 15,500 oz of gold and 330,000 oz of silver. At current prices, the silver recovered will more than cover the total cost of production in the first year."
According to their press release they'll generate revenue of $6 m in the first year with gold at $385. That's $0.15 per share! Given a P.E. of 10, the stock would be fairly valued at $1.5!
***Note, I have not confirmed all of this about apolo, but the tip includes urls so YOU and I can all quite easily confirm things.*** This is a GREAT example of how to send me a tip.
GQM.TO / GQMNF.PK
51.9 mil shares outstanding
@ share price $.64 CAN x .77 = $.49 US
$25.5 mil MC
"This mineable reserve is estimated to contain 1,529,000 oz gold and 24,870,000 oz silver." --from the homepage
gold x 10 = 15.2 mil + 24.8 mil = 40 mil silver equiv.
"The estimated capital cost to the start of production is now U.S.$36 million"
$25.5 mil MC / 40 mil oz. = .64/oz.
You get "approx" 8.4 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: My method is severely mis-pricing this company due to the large gold componant. At a ratio of 70:1, the value of the gold and silver are as follows: 1.5 mil gold x $370/oz gold = $555 mil; 24.8 mil oz silver x $4.8/oz silver = $119 mil. Thus, this company, at today's prices is 555/674 (82%) in gold and 119/674 (18%) in silver. With values like that, it comes out relatively expensive as a pure silver play (discounting the gold as I do), but they could earn good profits, given that gold is not 10 times the silver price, but 70 times the silver price. The interesting thing here is that the company has a historic ratio of silver to gold, at 16:1.
Ignore my method of valuation for this one, and consider this company has a "huge gold bonus" that may be worth seriously considering if you are not a hard-core silver bug like I am. If they move to production today, then the price will be based on the profits from the gold, not by the "oz in the ground" method of valuation. I have not done a profit estimate for this one.
Looking at the gold alone: $23 mil / 1.5 mil oz. gold = $15.33/oz. for the gold here. But if you want a gold play, Vista gold may be better.
WTZ / WTC.TO
(formerly western copper)
34.3 mil shares (Oct. 2003)
@ share price $4.47 US
$153 mil MC
(not actively mining)
From the "SNC Lavalin Resource Calculation" March, 2003.
Indicated 158.8 mil oz. silver
Inferred 54.6 mil oz. silver
Total 213.4 oz. silver.
Total 1.94 oz. gold x 10 (at 10:1) = 19.4 silver equiv.
Exploration potential: 500 mil oz. silver, 5 mil oz. gold, from
The capital cost of the project to get the mine going is estimated to be US $148,628,400
$153 mil MC / 233 oz. = $.65/oz.
$153 mil MC / 550 oz. = $.28/oz. --exploration potential (may be "resources" by Jan, 2004)
You get "approx" 8.3 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Exploration Potential = 19.2
Additional comments: Note the capital cost to get the mining started: $148 million dollars.
A friendly email came in and said that WTZ also has the following other metal resources:
3.73 billion pounds of zinc
673 million pounds of copper
1.3 billion pounds of lead
I note that Canadian Zinc has a similarly-sized 3 billion lbs of zinc, more lead, but with a much smaller market cap, and lower start up costs.
MRB / MR.TO (METLF.OB changed to MRB)
Ritch Hall, 303-796-0229 ext. 304
42.5 mil shares outstanding (2003 1 Qtr report)
$1.60 US (MRB)
$68 mil MC
"The capital cost to develop the mine is estimated at $28.2 million."
"a total resource of approximately 5.1 million ounces of gold and 91 million ounces of silver. In addition, Metallica's copper resource is estimated at 1.9 billion pounds."
5.1 x 10 = 51 mil oz "silver equiv". + 91 mil silver = 142
$68 mil MC / 142 mil oz. silver = $.47/oz.
You get "approx" 10.54 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional Comments: I just got new and better information on this from last week. I did not have numbers for copper and gold, but now I do. There is a significant "gold and copper" bonus here. At 75:1, $375:$5, the percentage of gold to silver value is $1912 million gold, $455 million silver, or 72% gold, 28% silver, not including the copper. At $.90/lb. copper, the copper is also worth $1710 million. Again, my method counts silver only, and counts gold by only 10 times the value of silver, not 70, so factor in a large gold and copper bonus.
TM.V / TUMIF.PK
Nick Nicolaas IR (604) 657 4058
16.2 fully dilutted shares (Oct. 21, 2003)
@ share price 1.03 CAN (x .77) = $.79 US
$12.8 mil MC
20 mil oz resource up to 50 million oz. silver potential but needs to be explored and drilled.
500,000 gold resource x 10 = 5 mil oz. silver equiv.
Debt free, 2 projects in Mexico.
$12.8 mil MC / 25 mil oz. = .51 ***I'm using this number***
$12.8 mil MC / 50 mil oz. = .26 (exploration potential)
You get "approx" 10.52 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Tumi is focused on becoming a "premiere junior silver explorer." It's good to see the focus is in the right metal. Doing active drilling to prove up their projects and increase "resources". Nick Nicolaas really understands the silver story, beliving silver has much greater appreciation potential than gold.
Fully Diluted Issued & Outstanding 23,133,623
@ $2.34 x .77 = $1.80
$41 mil MC
Located in China
gold and silver. Don't yet know how much of either, but a man who emailed me said 80 mil oz. silver???? I was not able to confirm that at the website.
$41 mil MC / 80 mil = $.51/oz.
You get "approx" 10.4 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
30 mil oz. silver resources indicated and inferred
540,000 oz. gold x 10 = 5.4 mil "silver equiv."
$17.8 mil MC / 35.4 mil oz. = $.50/oz.
You get "approx" 10.66 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
40 mil shares (Oct. 2003)
@ share price $8.02
$321 mil MC
debt free, cash: $10 mil
not mining or producing
15 silver properties
measured and indicated resources totaling 300.4 million ounces of silver
plus inferred resources totaling 366 million ounces of silver = 666 mil oz.
2.2 mil oz. gold. Silver equiv = 22 mil oz. silver. (22+666=688 mil oz.)
$321 mil MC / 688 mil oz. = $.46/oz.
You get "approx" 11.55 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: SSRI really is the "silver standard". SSRI has the largest market cap this far down the list, which makes it a more attractive target for people with larger amounts of money to invest.
SSRI continues to add to reserves, either through exploring, or through acquisitions. This company seems to really understand the silver story, and helped to educate me as an investor.
FAN.TO / FRLLF.PK
(604) 684-6365 Erick Bertsch
43.8 mil shares fully diluted (At Aug 31, 2003)
(plus a pp announced on Oct 31 of 15 mil units of 1 share @ .38 1 warrant @ .5 which is 30 mil new shares, to raise $5.7 million)
73.8 mil shares fully diluted as of Oct 31, 2003
@ share price $.80 CAN x .77 = $.62 US
$45 mil MC
Exploration and development in Mexico.
See also hdgold.com (Hunter-Dickinson)
On 4 sulphide deposits out of 16, 29 mil ton grading 89 grams silver/t and 1.57 g gold/t.
Conversion: 89 grams x .0353 oz/gram = 3.14 oz.
RE: those 29 mil tons, they "anticipate increasing resources to 50 mil tonne range..."
3.14 oz. x 29 mil tons = 91 mil oz. silver
1.6 mil oz. gold x 10 = 16 mil oz "silver equiv".
Total: 107 mil oz. silver equiv.
(Exploration potential = x 1.7 = 181)
$45 mil MC / 107 mil oz. silver equiv. = $.42/oz.
$45 mil MC / 181 mil oz. silver equiv. = $.24/oz. --exploration potential
You get "approx" 12.8 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Exploration potential = 22
Private placement news link:
Nothing done or drilled on the property since 1999. Why not? Because of low zinc prices: 46% of the price of the metals was in the zinc before prices crashed... (This one reminds me of Canadian Zinc. They think they are a zinc company.) The largest componant today is gold, which was surprising to Eric, the IR guy I spoke with. About 1/3 is in silver now.
At today's low metals prices:
2% x 2000 lb = 40 lbs zinc x $.42/lb = $16.8 for the zinc (.37 to .50 lb zinc.)
3.14 oz. x $5.15 = $16 for the silver.
.055421 oz. x $385/oz. = $21 for the gold
(Assuming 100% metals recovery--which is not likely to be the case. It may range from 60% to a higher percentage, depending on extraction methods used and the particular mineral targeted, which constantly change with technology advancements, and price changes in the metals. By the time a mine like this gets running, perhaps in 5 years or so, things may change to allow even greater metal recovery.)
Speaking with the company, they think reserves of ore could be 50 mil tonnes OR MORE, but that they really don't know, and want to issue conservative estimates.
ASM.V / ASGMF.PK
604 682-3701 -- David Wolfin
10.9 mil shares fully diluted, Nov. 2003 (with the 4 mil new shares from PP)
(proposed PP in late Oct 2 mil units at $1.27 (unit = 1 share + 1 warrant at 1.58)
"Operations at Avino's silver mine in Mexico are both open-pit and underground. I examined the reserves and interpolated the tonnage into silver ounces as follows: 28-million ounces proven; 50-million ounces probable and 27 million ounces possible." (Not all are 43101 compliant reserves & resources.--that is an old, third party report.)
--focus is on being silver company. A plus.
They actually have over five silver properties/projects. I'm only have numbers to count for one, the "Avino mine".
= 28 + 50 + 27 = 105
Avino owns 49% of that, or 51.5 mil oz.
-"not considered reserves under the new Canadian National Policy 43-101"
$19.2 mil MC / 51.5 mil oz. = $.37/oz.
You get "approx" 14.4 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional notes: There are 4 additional silver properties that I don't have numbers for. Consider this a "silver bonus"!!!
Mexican mining law once stated that a controlling interest had to be owned by Mexicans, which explains why they only have a 49% interest. That they don't have a controlling interest is a minus. This law has changed. The mine was operational until the mine went into temporary closure in November 2001. So there is in place an existing mine, with working infrastructure, which is a bonus. There is a need for drilling in order to test the potential that was stated in the feasibility study.
604 628 5642 -- Curt Huber-- Business Development firstname.lastname@example.org
26.2 mil shares fully diluted (as of Oct 7th., 2003)
+ up to 5.2 mil shares in private placement of Oct 17, 2003
31.4 mil shares to possibly be fully dilluted.
@ share price $1.39 CAN x .77 = $1.07 US
$33 mil MC
--owns an option to earn 70% interest in "Miera San Jorge's Monte del Favor property in Mexico"
"An historical resource estimate based on underground sampling at Monte Del Favor is reported at 17 million tonnes grading 0.85 g/t gold and 224 g/t silver for a contained 123 million ounces of silver and 460,000 ounces of gold." "While this resource estimate is not fully 43-101 compliant, the Company considers that it provides a conceptual indication of the potential of the property."
460,000 x 10 = 4.6 mil "silver equiv".
127.6 mil oz. x 70% interest = 89.3 mil oz.
$33 mil MC / 89.3 mil oz. = $.37/oz.
You get "approx" 14.3 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Prior grades hit 2-5 kilos silver/ ton. (2000-5000g/ton. 70-176 oz. ton) Very high grades. The project was never properly drilled with modern methods.
Admiral Bay acquired this option to own a 70% interest in this silver property in June, 2003, and the acquisition did not impact their stock price at that time at all. Previously, they were a gas company, and they still have this other gas project, which may be more than half the intrinsic value of the company according to Curt Huber, who understands the silver story as expressed by Ted Butler and David Morgan. My valuation method, obviously, does not give any value for their gas project, which therefore needs to be factored in as a significant "bonus".
They are actively digging now, building a road and uncovering mineralization areas, and tracing surface veins. They will be drilling before the end of October, spending $500,000 before the end of 2003. They have $2 million cash in the till.
1.9 mil oz gold, 64 mil oz silver, 1.94 bil lb copper, 1.35 bil lb. zinc.
t3 deposit inferred 64.1 mil oz. silver, 2.1 mil oz. gold
Total of just these two: 128 mil oz. silver, 4 mil oz. gold x 10 = 40 mil oz. "silver equiv" = 168 mil oz. silver.
In the sulfide deposit of t-1, containing 47.7 mil oz. silver, perhaps only 1/2 the silver is "recoverable". So, minus half that, or 24 mil oz. = 144 mil oz.
$42 mil MC / 144 mil oz. = .29/oz.
You get "approx" 18.3 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Share price was knocked back last two weeks due to local protests over proposed mine.
Significant copper and zinc and gold bonuses here. $180 million to develop project. Cash gold cost projected: $83/oz.gold. The deposit has "been economic for some time now". TG-1 has a positive full feasibility study and and EIA now undergoing government review.
56.4 mil shares outstanding
@ share price $.41 share x .77 = $.32
$17.8 mil MC
*** Dumont still needs to raise and pay several million to clifton for 50% of the project.
$17.8 mil MC/ 52.5 million oz. = $.34/oz.
You get "approx" 15.9? ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Clifton's JV partner, doing active drilling work right now.
* EXR.V / EXPTF.PK (I own shares)
Dr. Harlan D. Meade, President and CEO
81.6 mil shares fully dulted. (As of oct 17th)
@ share price .35 CAN x .77 = $.27
$22 mil MC
Mostly a base metals company. Zinc. Also has some silver.
From "Sheet 2" from the company:
96.6 mil oz. Silver
565,610 oz. gold x 10 = 5.7 mil oz. silver equiv.
= 102.3 silver equiv oz.
(Not all the properties are owned 100%. Some are only 60% owned with option to acquire more) I will "guestimate" that they own roughly 70% of the 102 silver equiv oz. = 71.4 (And I count nothing for the zinc., althouth this is primarily a zinc company.
+ 457 mil pounds copper
+ 4 Billion pounds zinc.
$1.2 mil CAN capital in the til no debt.
$22 mil MC / 71 oz. silver = $.31
You get "approx" 17 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Significant zinc bonus, about 2.4 times the silver value. Smelter credits are estimated at about 60% zinc, 25% silver, 10% gold and copper, and the rest, other minerals. My method of valuation puts a value on the silver only, not the rest, so this is a better value than my number shows.
I own shares of EXR.V.
* SVL.V / STVZF.PK (I own shares)
15.18 mil shares outstanding oct 31, 2003
22.2 fully diluted oct 31, 2003
(pub float: 8.93 mil, the rest is owned by insiders)
@ share price $1.23 CAN x (.77 US/CAN) = $.95 US
$21 mil MC
Indicated resources of silver 30 mil oz. (SOZ.)
Projects in Honduras.
*** discovery adds silver*** (perhaps 40-100 mil oz.) see below
"The prior operator last estimated the mine reserves at 26.75 million ounces of silver, 10.36 million pounds of copper and 7.05 million pounds of lead (or approximately 28.85 million ounces of silver-equivalent), as well as an additional resource of 159.66 million ounces of silver. "
~100 mil oz. other properties: the 10 sq. miles around the 1/2 sq mile of the Sunshine (rough guess--needs to be explored) *** I use this number*** even though--these extra 100 mil oz. are in the "explorer" category. They need to be drilled and found, although I've heard of estimates as high as 400 mil oz. total for SRLM.PK
$52.5 mil MC / 185 mil oz. = $.28/oz.
$52.5 mil MC / 285 mil oz. = $.18/oz. (exploration potential)
You get "approx" 19 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
(Exploration potential is 30+. )
(I had been counting the exploration potential differently than others for this one. Now, it is clearly separated, so it is like the rest.)
Sterling Mining acquired the Sunshine mine. Sunshine was one of the big three: Hecla, Couer, & Sunshine. Sunshine went bankrupt. Sterling got the property a few months ago cheap, because they were quick & willing to pay cash. Other buyers wanted to do a full study before making an offer. This company's share price went ballistic as a result. But the company is still way undervalued. Just do the math, people. I own a substantial share of SRLM.PK There were a few great articles written lately for SRLM. See the company web site, above. The best factors, I feel, are as follows:
1. The Sunshine mine is an existing mine that was mining at a profit. The company went bankrupt, not the mine. So there will be no great capital costs for start up, only minimal costs.
2. The Sunshine sits on 1/2 sq. mile, and was never fully explored. Sterling Mining owns 10 square miles of property surrounding the Sunshine, right in the heart of silver country, the location of CDE and HL, the other two big companies at the top of this list.
3. The management of Sunshine understands the silver story. They are on a mission to acquire distressed silver properties at today's cheap prices.
4. The additional share offering, if it closes, could mean 8.5 mil shares, which would mean a market cap of $37 mil. That's a minus. $37 / 260 = .14/oz., which is a little higher price. Beware of additional share issues causing shareholder dilution.
Do not confuse SRLM with SSMR. SSMR is the Sunshine mining company, which went bankrupt. SRLM acquired the Sunshine mine. If you want to buy the Sunshine mine, you buy Sterling Mining Company, SRLM.
I own shares of SRLM.PK
77.1 M shares
@ Share price .17 CAN (x.77 US/CAN) = .13
$10 mil MC
Reserves and Resources: 41 mil oz. silver
Gold equivalents 712,000 x 10 (from the 70:1 silver/gold ratio) = 7.1 mil silver equiv...
(new gold to silver value remember, see the top of this article) 41 mil oz. + 7 mil oz. = 48 mil oz.
$10 mil MC / 48 mil oz. silver equiv. = $.21/oz.
You get "approx" 26 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Half the current value is in gold, not silver. If the gold was counted as 70:1, instead of 10:1, the "price" would be about 57% of the price now, or 43% off.
* MNMM.OB (I own shares)
8.5 mil shares outstanding
10.1 mil shares fully diluted as of the Sept. 3 pp that closed.
@ share price $5.80
$58.6 mil MC
261 mil oz. silver resources. Previous drilling spent over $100 million drilling the property.
$58.6 mil MC / 261 mil = $.22/oz.
You get "approx" 24 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Mines Management owned 10% of the rights to their property in Montana. The other 90% owner, Noranda, simply gave up on the property and walked away from their mining claim due to "perpetually" low silver prices and political concerns. That explains the rocketing share price. So, the MNMM group got 90% of the rest of the property FOR FREE!--the value of which, and the nature of this transaction has just barely begun to be understood by the market, given the low relative price.
Their property also has about 60% of the value (at current prices) in copper, 2 Billion pounds of copper, and 261 mil oz. of silver. Doing the math: 261 mil oz. silver x $5.25/oz. = $1.3 Billion. 2 Billion lbs copper x .95/lb. = $1.9 Billion. Total asset value: $3.2 Billion
They do not have an active working mine--Which is a minus. They will need to raise capital to get a mine going. Noranda had several estimates for the cost to build a mine and mill, around $250 million. But it could be less depending on how economic they decide to do things. They are working on a feasibility study, and avoiding dilution until next year, which is a plus.
Regarding environmental concerns: Noranda had a fully approved Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) that led to successful project permitting, so environmental concerns were not a factor in their departure in 2002.
(Copper prices also moved up, from about .85/lb. a few weeks ago to .95/lb.)
HDA's proven and probable reserves stand at 161,000 tons of
ore grading an average 25.6 ounces per ton silver, and 10 percent combined
lead/zinc -- 4.12 mil oz silver, not including the zinc & lead.
According to Magnus, the indicated and inferred reserves total about 180,000
tons at about the same grading -- in other words, a further 4 million ounces of
~8 mil oz. silver
$2 mil MC / 8 mil oz. silver = .25/oz.
You get "approx" 21 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: There is a significant lead/zinc bonus. "The property could be put into production at a capital cost of CAN $3.5 million -- with payback of capital (when equity financed) within two years."
Ray Brown, 530-873-4394
70 mil shares
@ .085 cents/share
$6 mil MC
--lease of property will expire June 1 2004, need to raise significant money.
49 mil oz.
$6 mil MC / 49 mil oz. = .12/oz.
You have an expiring lease on "approx" 44 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: If my memory serves, they need to raise $2 million to maintain the lease. If they did a pp at 4 cents/share, they would need to issue 50 million shares, plus perhaps 25 mil warrants to raise $2 million. Perhaps they can do it at a higher share price, given the trend? At today's share price, the dilution would mean a market cap of:
145 mil shares @ .05/share
$7.25 mil/ 49 mil oz. = .14
and you'd get 35 oz. per oz. They just might be able to do it, and maintain a profitable incentive for the investors, if they have the authorization for that much shares, and I don't know if they do. I'm not investing my money in this one, but it will be interesting to watch. (up 70% on friday)
Explorers deserve their own category, since they cannot be valued by my method of looking at reserves and resources of ounces of silver in the ground. We do not know how many oz. they might have. They are exploring for that. But, given their market caps, and given what I feel is a good price for a silver company of about 30 cents per oz. in the ground, I can calculate how much silver they had better find, in order to justify their current stock price. This valuation method might also help those who have a better feel for how much silver they might find than I do, to value the company. This list, although at the bottom, in no way indicates that these companies are more highly valued than companies listed above. It is also difficult to categorize a company as an explorer, since all silver companies always hold more silver properties that need to be explored. Higher grade deposits, obviously, could be valued significantly more than my arbitrary number of 30 cents/oz.
(The order is by largest market cap first, not by "comparative value".)
Sabine Goetz, Investor Relations - 604.488.2657
Fully Diluted 27,735,000 with Nov. 6th Private Placement
@ share price $5.45 x .77 = $4.19
$116 mil MC
Additional comments: III.TO raised $10 million in the recent private placement.
III.TO has gone up 1000%, no typo, up one thousand percent, up by a factor of 10, in the six months from Spring to October, 2003, most in the last month or so since September! And I completely missed the run up.
43.4 mil Fully Diluted shares
@ share price $1.94 CAN x .77 = $1.49 U.S
$64.8 mil MC / (.30/oz. "Arbitrary Jason Hommel good value" factor) = 216 mil oz. that they had better find to justify the current Market cap.
Additional comments: This explorer has found bonanza high grades, which many people consider to be an outstanding benefit, and they are willing to pay much more for such high grades, which have a much higher chance of being able to be mined at a significant profit in today's environment of low silver prices. Some people say the high grades are far more important than how many ounces are found, and they more highly value this factor than my arbitrary "good value" number of 30 cents/oz. In other words, they might be willing to pay up to 50 cents or a dollar for such high grades, and they may be worth that, and they may be right.
19-20 mil fully diluted
@ share price $4.85
$97 mil MC
VGZ is a gold exploration company with 8 projects.
(total measured, indicated, inferred)
8. Paredones Amarillos 2 mil oz. gold
7. Mountain View .47 mil oz. gold
6. Maverick Springs 1 mil oz. gold (further drilling in 2003)
5. Long Valley 1.7 mil oz. gold (plus signicant "exploration potential")
4. Hycroft. 1 mil oz. gold ( plus 6 mil oz. gold + 150 mil oz. silver potential)
3. Hasbrouck-Three Hills .74 mil oz. gold (excellent exploration potential)
2. Guadalupe De Los Reyes .5 mil oz gold (includes significant silver values)
1. Amayapampa .6 mil oz.
All total gold: 8.01 mil oz.
All total "exploration potential": 14 mil oz. gold + 150 mil oz. silver.
Counting gold 14 mil oz x 10 = 140 mil oz "silver equiv"
All total "silver equiv." "exploration potential" = 290 mil oz.
$97 mil MC / 290 mil oz. = $.33/oz.
You may get "approx" 16 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver's worth of stock.
Additional comments: Vista gold exploded in price last week.
I am severely undercounting the gold with my method of counting an oz of gold as only 10 oz. silver. Consider this one has a significant "gold bonus factor". In fact, only about 13% of the value of this company is in silver, at today's prices. Much of the numbers for this one are "exploration potential" or indicated or inferred resource.
It was also difficult to determine whether or not to count this one as an explorer or not. To include the silver, I had to count them as an explorer. They have 8 million oz. of gold in the "inferred and indicated resource" category, which is more certain that "exploration guesses". Considering the 8 mil gold oz. alone: $54 mil MC / 8 mil oz. = $6.75/oz for the gold. If you consider the "exploration potential" of 14 mil oz. gold it's $54 / 14 = $3.85/oz. for the gold.
The gold ounces here are "marginal ounces." They are typically low grade, high cost to mine. They may be significantly profitable with significantly higher gold prices. These are among the cheapest gold ounces in the ground I've seen. Some others in this range might be MYNG.OB and Bralorne and X-Cal. (I own MYNG, Bralorne, and X-Cal.) I might consider buying Vista Gold, but I don't think it's significantly better than the others I own. I'd really rather focus on silver companies right now.
Fully Diluted: 224,194,196
@ share price .30 CAN x .76 = $.23
$51 mil MC
* CDU.V CUEAF.PK (I own shares)
Henk Van Alphen -- President (604) 408-7488
28.3 million shares fully diluted
@ share price $2.82 CAN (x .77 US/CAN) = 2.17
$61 mil MC
Proven & Probable: NONE! (explorer).
Speculated resources, or "exploration potential":
Providencia -- high grades, could have 100-250 mil oz.
Chingolo -- Will finish drilling by secnod week in November -- Henk says, "may have 400-600 mil oz. "exploration potential" in 200-300 mil tons of rock." They got 30-40 grams (1.23 oz.) on the first drill hole, but hope to find 2-3 ounces silver/ton. Please note, "exploration potential" is a non quantifiable, non-regulated, unauthorized type of estimate. It is not 43-101 compliant. Trading decisions should probably not be made on these kinds of shaky estimates, which may be only hype and hope. An investor who wants to be protected by US regulations should wait for geologists to pour over the drill results and produce numbers that comply with 43-101 regulations, that may one day appear in a company press release. (Also, the first time Cardero issued drilling results earlier this year, the stock price was cut almost in half due to lower than expected results. The stock price has since recovered.) Nevertheless, here's how those "exploration potential" numbers work out if you do the math:
$61 mil MC / (.30/oz. "Arbitrary Jason Hommel good value" factor) = 204 mil oz. that they had better find to justify the current Market cap.
$61 mil MC / 500-850 mil oz exploration potential = $.12 - .07/oz.
Exploration potential: you might get about 44 - 75 oz. silver for one oz. silver worth of stock.
Additional comments: *** I wrote an article on Cardero in January, 2003.
Cardero has three properties in Argentina; actively working on two: Chingolo and Providencia. Chingolo was just measured as twice as large as previously thought. They are trying to prove up these properties.
Providencia also has potentially high grades in several very large conglomerate deposits that can be mined at a profit today. Their property at Providencia was an active mine, but only a few tons/day. But they hope to make a large open pit project out of the main deposit, processing perhaps a few thousand tons/day.
High grades are very important in today's environment, especially if you can buy them cheaply.
They are also acquiring more silver properties, which is another bonus. This is an aggressive silver company. More properties help to alleviate the risk of an explorer.
I own shares of CDU.V
376 mil shares
@ share price $ .13
$48 mil MC
"Total Inferred Resource is 34.5 million ozs silver but the district is unexplored for epithermal silver and exploration to date suggests a district potential of 50 to 100m ozs Ag or perhaps much more." --"Macmin is a silver focussed company" The Texas Silver Project has in-ground resources of 44.5Moz of silver equivalent
$48 mil MC / 50 mil oz. = $.97oz.
$48 mil MC / 100 mil oz. = $.48oz. ***using this number*** since we are counting these as explorers in this categorgy.
You might get up to 10.25 oz of silver for one oz silver's worth of stock
Total gold = 182,000 oz. gold x 10 (@10:1) = 1.8 mil oz silver equiv.
Total silver equiv (Canatuan) = 8.9 mil oz.
+ 2.5 % royalty on "Rapu Rapu" that should be worth about $1 million per year starting within 9-12 months. (a cash source for an explorer is a big plus)
+ they own a drilling company with 20 rigs.
+ they have a "foot in the door" in China.
+ many other promising exploration properties in the Asian Pacific.
$42 mil MC (.30/oz. "good value" factor) = 141 mil oz. that they had better find to justify the current Market cap.
Additional comments: This company has many properties in the Philippines. This one looks interesting, but there is just too much unknown for me at this point for me to be able to quantify. So, they are an explorer, listed in terms of market cap size. The bonus is they are a producer, and likely are cash flow positive, which are both extremely rare for an explorer.
* NPG.V / NVPGF.PK (I own shares)
33 mil shares fully diluted
+ 1 mil shares options for executives
= 34 mil shares as of October, 2003
@ share price .90 CAN x .77 = .69 US
$23.5 mil MC
Amador Canyon Silver Project: 50-250 mil tonnes
silver grades average 4 oz. sil/ ton in the deposit
= 200 to 1000 mil oz. silver????? --very speculative at this point. Drilling needs to be done, scheduled $13.2 mil MC / (.30/oz. "good value" factor) = 44 mil oz. is all they need to find to justify the current Market cap.
$23.5 mil MC / 200 mil oz. = $.11/oz.
$23.5 mil MC / 1000 mil oz. = $.023/oz.
The inverse: you "might" get 49 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
The inverse: you "might" get 234 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
Additional comments: Explorer in Nevada. They do not really know how much silver they might they have in the Amador Canyon project. They are doing drilling this fall, 2003, as they just did a $2.5 million private placement. The Chariman, David Hottman, says that 90% of the value of the company is in gold, NOT silver, and yet, I'm buying this company for the silver value only, and as if the gold componant was worth nothing. (The gold projects are a free bonus, in my book, and help to alleviate the risk of this explorer.) He has 10 gold projects, and one silver-but it may be big. On the website, for David Hottman's bio, it says he was a founding member of Eldorado gold. "During his tenure, Eldorado's market capitalization grew from Cdn $7 million in 1992 to a peak of Cdn $781 million in 1996." Please note, exploration is risky, and costly.
I own shares of NPG.V
39,240,457 shares Fully, Diluted
@ $0.60/share x .77 = .46 US
$18 mil MC
--About 6 properties in Peru
EPZ.V / ESPZF.PK
Esperanza Silver Corp
fully diluted 20 million shares
@ share price = $1.45 CAN x .77 = US $1.12
$22 mil MC / (.30/oz. "good value" factor) = 74 mil oz. that they had better find to justify the current Market cap. "Esperanza Silver Corporation is solely dedicated to the identification, acquisition and exploration of new silver projects."
Additional notes: Management involved with SSRI
14 mil shares fully diluted (Oct 23, 2003)
@ share price $1.90 x .77 = $1.46 US
$20 mil MC
zinc and silver
$20 mil MC / JH value .30/oz. = 68 mil oz. they need to find to justify current market cap.
IAU.V / ITDXF.PK
30 mil shares
@ share price $.77 CAN x .77 = .59 US
$17.8 mil MC
Company's exposure is about half to gold, half to silver in several projects.
Joint Venture with BHP Billiton focused on "Cannington" style silver deposits using proprietary BHP Billiton data.
(all figures are "exploration potential")
El Salvador - 38.5 mil oz.
Argentina - 6 mil oz.
Total: 44 mil oz. silver
Total gold: ~690k oz. x 10 (10:1 ratio) = ~ 6.9 mil oz. "silver equiv"
Total: 53 mil oz. "silver equiv". (exploration potential or indicated or inferred, not reserves)
$17.8 mil MC / 53 mil oz. = $.33/oz.
Hopefully, you get 15 ounces in the ground for 1 oz. silver.
Additional comments: Their "exploration potential" lies right about at the "arbitrary good value" range. This explorer/developer tends to focus on good grade, mineable deposits, and form partnerships with other companies to access great information, and expects to produce silver & gold within 2 years, by 2005. They also took the time to contact me, after having seen this silver report.
Since this company is about half gold and half silver, the 10:1 ratio really cuts down the "silver equiv" numbers, so keep in mind the "gold bonus" factor here. But it's like that with a lot of the companies on this list, so keep that in mind, and do your own math if you want to use the 70:1 ratio.
Phone: Toll-free tel. 1-877-859-5200
@ share price $.45 CAN x .77 = $ .35 US
$13.5 mil MC / .30 "good value factor" = 45 mil oz. they need to find to justify a value price.
Additional comments: silver in cuba. (final feasibility study completed by Rescan-Hatch) gold in Timmins, Ontario.
16.3 mil shares outstanding
@ 1.02 cents/share x .77 = .78
$11.52 mil MC
Bonanza grade "grab samples" in southern Argentina near IMA
* GNG.V GGTHF.PK (I own shares)
+ 4 mil warrants
= 32.4 mil shares fully diluted
@ share price $.53 x .77 = $.40
$13 mil market cap /.30/oz. "good value factor" = 44 mil oz. they need to find to justify a value price.
Additional comments: Silver Explorer in Mexico in the the Sierra Madre mountains: Uruachic.
Doing active drilling on their silver property, Las Bolas, "in a month" (as of Oct. 7th). They hope to take a collection of old silver mines and make them open pittable. They have some very high grades from chip samples from the tunnels, ranging from 100g to 500g all the way up to around and over 1000g/ton of silver.
I own shares of GNG.V
15.7 mil shares
@ share price $.74 US
$11.6 mil MC / .30 "good value factor" = 38 mil oz. they need to find to justify a value price.
New Jersey Mining Company (NJMC) is engaged in exploring for and developing gold, silver and base metal ore reserves in the Coeur d'Alene Mining District of northern Idaho also known as the Silver Valley - one of the world's richest silver districts.
MMG.V / MMEEF.PK
25.6 mil shares outstanding (3q 2003 report June, 2003)
@ share price $.45 CAN x .77 = $.35
$8.8 mil MC /.30 "good value factor" = 31 mil oz. they need to find to justify a value price.
Jay Oness Toll Free: 1-888-456-1112
36.4 mil shares Sept 2002
+ 3 mil undefined "units" Oct 2003
41? mil diluted???
three main properties in North America
@ share price .32 CAN x .77 = $.25 US
$10 mil MC ?
Additional comments: (Expensive, unless they find more.) "Excellon ...is exploring and developing".... "a Bonanza grade Silver deposit in Mexico."
indicated = 63,400 t x 2738 g/t x .0353oz./g = 6.1 mil oz. silver
inferred = 2100 t x 1,433 g/t x .0353oz./g = .1 mil oz. silver
"gross in-situ value of mineralization is $31.4 million."
$7.7 mil MC / 6.2 mil oz. = $1.23/oz.
12 mil shares
$10.2 mil MC /.30/oz. "good value factor" = 34 mil oz. they need to find to justify a value price.
In Cour d'Alene, near CDE, HL, & SRLM.PK
7.4 mil shares issued
@ share price .85 CAN x .77 = $.65 US
$4.8 mil MC /.30/oz. "good value factor" = 16 mil oz. they need to find to justify a value price.
15 mil shares outstanding ??? -email said. call to confirm. Use "fully diluted" to be safe.
@.61 share x .77 = .47
$7 mil MC
Adjacent to Barrick's silver property, which is "the fifth largest silver producer in the world".
A claim made in an email to me: "The Property was once almost bought for $34.5-35 million in 1996."
Michael Townsend, President
Toll Free: 1-866-669-9377
18.6 mil shares outstanding
@.26/share x .77 = .20
$3.7 mil MC
14.3 mil fully diluted (July 15, 2003)
@ share price .165 CAN x .77 = .127
$1.81 mil MC
$14.5 mil MC
"Itronics Inc. is the world's only fully integrated photochemical recycling company. It provides photochemical waste collection services, recovers and refines silver from the photochemicals,"
Additional comments: Itronics is not an explorer, and not a miner, and has no reserves. As such, it is extremely difficult for me to value this compared to other silver stocks. I just don't know how to value this one.
Final Category: Silver stocks FOR YOU and I TO RESEARCH further:
I strongly recommend you try to "get ahead of me," and research these stocks to see if I left out any great values. I probably did. I simply did not have time, or could not yet find information (without using the telephone) on all the three key figures needed to get the "price per oz." in the ground. You need: number of shares fully diluted x share price to get the market cap. Then, you need an estimate of the oz. in the ground. Usually, I've been finding the oz. in the ground resource estimates right off the company webpages, and I get the number of shares by looking for it burried in the financial statements like the quarterlies or annual reports, which are also usually right on the company webpages. Have fun this week!
specialising in exploration and production of silver.
Silver at the Munni Munni Joint Venture in the West Pilbara region of Western Australia
"Though we have reserves and could conceivably mine them, it frankly makes no sense to do so at current prices. ... The end of the silver bear will bring a number of the now-dormant small companies back to life..."
Malachite Resources NL MAR.AX
Silver Buckle Mines Inc (SBUM.PK)
Fischer-Watt Gold Co Inc (FWGO.OB)
George Beattie, 208-664-6757
Silver Mountain Lead Mines Inc (SMLM.PK)
Silver Butte Mining SIBM.PK
(mine abandoned in 1996, copper/zinc waste water?)
oxus will spin off: Khandiza is a high-grade zinc, silver, copper and lead deposit located in the Sariasia region of southeast Uzbekistan.
Silver Bowl --not yet public?
Articles like this one, that present opportunities like these, can tend to move the markets in these stocks. So, be careful when buying. If you place any market orders at the open for any of these small stocks, you might end up buying at prices that are significantly higher than you intended. Limit orders might be better, but then, you run the risk of your order not being filled if the stock price exceeds your limit. And bid / ask spreads such as 15% on small cap silver stocks are not unusual. Markets can especially be moved given the wide readership of the internet. I've seen markets moved even by small private newsletters such as lemetropolecafe.com and silver-investor.com (I subscribe to both). Some of these stocks can move up 15%, 30%, 50% or even over 100% in a single day. Thus, valuations can change very, very quickly. So, be careful, and re-check the numbers if the prices move up. Do your own math.
Also note, the majority of these companies have an emphasis on silver. Most silver is produced as a by product of other mining, like lead or zinc or copper mining. Those companies that primarily produce other minerals are not featured in this report. This also helps to explain and prove, that silver is undervalued. If silver miners cannot mine silver profitably, and this report shows that to be true, then something is wrong with the silver price. It must go higher.
Final Disclaimer: I have not received any compensation from any company for writing up my weekly report on "Silver Stocks--Comparative Valuations". Within the report, I declared my ownership of each company that I own. To repeat, I own shares of the following 10 silver stocks: CZN.TO, MNMM.OB, SRLM.PK, CEV.V, CDU.V, NPG.V, CFTN.PK, GNG.V, EXR.V, SVL.V. I do not engage in short selling. I reserve the right to buy or sell any stock at any time. GoldSeek.com has ownership in Vista Gold and Silver Standard at the time of publication and did not receive compensation for publishing this report.
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