LIVE Gold Prices $  | E-Mail Subscriptions | Update GoldSeek | GoldSeek Radio 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

Mene Inc. Reports Financial Results for the Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2018
By: Menē Inc.

Precious Metals Update Video: June gold contract swing lines..
By: Ira Epstein

Can Gold Rise Without a Rate Cut?
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA

Hold onto Your Wallets, All You Billionaires
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks

Asian Metals Market Update: April-23-2019
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

SWOT Analysis: Venezuela Liquidated $400 Million in Gold Last Week
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

The Annual Silver Surveys
By: Ted Butler

A Special Message at Easter from the Precious Metals Sector...
By: Clive Maund

COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - April 19, 2019
By: GoldSeek.com

Northern Vertex Posts Record Production for Moss Mine in March
By: Northern Vertex Mining Corp.

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
Gold Mining Stocks Are Surging on Global Economic Fears
By: Frank E. Holmes, Chairman/CEO/CIO of U.S. Global Investors, Inc.,

 -- Published: Wednesday, 27 March 2019 | Print  | Disqus 

1.jpg (600Ă—347)

Bond yields are crashing in major markets all around the world as fears of a global economic slowdown have prompted investors to seek shelter in low-risk government debt. Both Germany and Japan’s 10-year bond yields are back below zero, marking the first time we’ve seen German yields turn negative since October 2016. As I shared with you last week, the pool of negative-yielding bonds around the globe now stands at a post-2017 high of $9.32 trillion. Yields in Australia and New Zealand have also fallen to record lows, according to Bloomberg.

2.png (600Ă—337)

The Yield Curve Just Inverted. Time to Get Defensive?

Here in the U.S., the yield on the 10-year Treasury has fallen to a more-than-one-year low on a dovish Federal Reserve. As you no doubt know by now, late last week, one very important part of the yield curve inverted for the first time since late 2006. On Tuesday morning, the 10-year Treasury was yielding 2.43 percent, compared to 2.46 percent for the 3-month Treasury—a small but meaningful spread of negative 3 basis points.

3.png (700Ă—431)

A yield curve inversion indicates that investors are anticipating a rate cut in the near future, which itself is a possible sign that economic growth is slowing. As such, inversions have been among the most reliable forecasters of recessions—at least here in the U.S., where each of the past seven recessions were preceded by an inversion.

Gold Stocks Have Traded Inversely to Treasury Yields

Responding to this development, Morgan Stanley strategist Michael Wilson told CNBC this week that investors should “remain defensively positioned.”

One of the best defensive positions, I believe, is gold bullion and gold mining stocks, which in the past have traded inversely to yields. When yields have risen, indicating less demand for a safe haven, gold prices have sunk. And when yields have fallen, indicating a risk-off sentiment, gold prices have climbed.

Take a look below. What the chart shows is the inverse relationship between gold mining stocks and the real 10-year Treasury yield—“real” meaning inflation-adjusted. As you can see, gold stocks soared in the summer of 2016 as yields deteriorated and finally dipped below zero.

4.png (600Ă—326)

Today, yields are similarly on a downward path, boosting gold stocks. Year-to-date through March 26, the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is up more than 10 percent.

But will yields turn negative? I can’t say for sure, of course. What I can say is that gold and gold mining stocks have historically been a good place to be positioned when economic fears pushed down bond yields.

This is why I always recommend a 10 percent weighting in gold, with 5 percent in physical gold and the other 5 percent in high-quality gold mining stocks and funds. I like to call this the 10 Percent Golden Rule, and in the past, it’s helped investors stanch some of the losses they’ve experienced during economic pullbacks and equity bear markets.

Unsure about how to get started? I recently appeared on Fox Business’ “Countdown to the Closing Bell” with Liz Claman and shared with her my top three gold stock picks. In case you missed it, you can watch the replay by clicking here!

 

All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold and silver.  The index benchmark value was 500.0 at the close of trading on December 20, 2002. A basis point, or bp, is a common unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is equal to 1/100th of 1%, or 0.01% (0.0001).

U.S. Global Investors, Inc. is an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC"). This does not mean that we are sponsored, recommended, or approved by the SEC, or that our abilities or qualifications in any respect have been passed upon by the SEC or any officer of the SEC. This commentary should not be considered a solicitation or offering of any investment product. Certain materials in this commentary may contain dated information. The information provided was current at the time of publication.

 


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Wednesday, 27 March 2019 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2019



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer


Map

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.