news.goldseek.com >> 17 September 2019

Look Which Precious Metal Is Beating Warren Buffett…
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

“We expect spot gold prices to trade stronger for longer, possibly breaching $2,000 an ounce and posting new cyclical highs at some point in the next year or two,” Citi analyst Aakash Doshi wrote in a note dated September 10, and reported by Bloomberg.

I agree with Citi’s projection. Last week I joined fellow goldwatchers Peter Schiff and Imaru Cassanova on Liz Claman’s Countdown to the Close, and I pointed out that gold is looking more and more attractive as central banks pursue easy money policies. When governments offer you a negative rate of return, that automatically makes gold much more appealing. What’s more, I think this easing cycle has just begun.

 news.goldseek.com >> 16 September 2019

SWOT Analysis: The U.K.’s Royal Mint Is Planning Its Own Gold ETF
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

The best performing metal this week was palladium, up 4.41 percent. Central banks continue to stock up on gold – led by Russia, the world’s top buyer for seven consecutive years. Russia’s central bank quadrupled its gold holdings in the last decade and has diversified away from U.S. assets. According to Bloomberg, the value of the nation’s gold surged 42 percent in the past year to $109.5 billion due to higher prices. Russia is also a top miner and saw its gold production rise 11 percent in the first half of 2019 from the same period last year to 142.2 tons. China is also growing its gold reserves. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has raised its bullion holdings for a ninth consecutive month, adding 5.91 tons in August, reports Bloomberg.

 news.goldseek.com >> 4 September 2019

The Power of Scarcity
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Gold and Munis Look Attractive With Limited Supply

Gold is an obvious example. The precious metal is both rare and finite, making it an ideal global currency. Although output continues to grow, the number of large, high-grade gold discoveries has been declining for decades now. Some experts, myself included, believe peak gold is already here.

Copper could soon be in the same boat. The red metal isn’t nearly as rare as gold is, but because of surging global demand, mostly for use in electric vehicles and renewable energy, it’s expected to go into deficit in 2021.

 news.goldseek.com >> 3 September 2019

SWOT Analysis: $1,600 Gold in the Next Three Months?
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

The best performing metal this week was platinum, up 8.86 percent. Platinum had its best week since 2011 as haven demand for gold expands to other precious metals. Gold rose to as much as $1,550 an ounce this week due to the escalated U.S.-China trade war. And silver is catching up. The gold/silver ratio was trading at its lowest level since April 17, which indicates that the silver price is starting to trade more like gold, but still has some room to go higher.

 news.goldseek.com >> 26 August 2019

SWOT Analysis: Inflows Into Gold ETFs Hit 1,000 Metric Tons
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

The best performing metal this week was silver, up 2.03 percent. Gold came in second place, up 1 percent. Inflows into ETFs backed by gold have hit 1,000 metric tons since holdings bottomed in early 2016. Bloomberg data shows that total known ETF holdings rose to 2,424.9 tons on Wednesday, which is the highest since 2013. Goldman Sachs predicts that the price of the yellow metal will climb to $1,600 an ounce over the next six months.

 news.goldseek.com >> 19 August 2019

SWOT Analysis: Gold Equities Have Room to Run…
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Gold equities are cheap and have room to continue running relative to the gold price, as they are lagging their historical relationship. The chart below compares the price of the senior gold miners to the price of gold 10-years ago. The miners have taken a much bigger drop than the gold price. TD Securities writes in a note that it expects a further rotation from producers down to the junior miners and eventually to the emerging producers to developers, which will be catalyzed by high profile M&A activity. Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, says that central banks are buying gold because they don’t want to own dollars with sanction, geopolitical and trade-war risks. UBS raised its gold price forecast in 2020 to $1,550 per ounce as their economists believe a U.S.-China deal is looking increasingly unlikely, reports Bloomberg.

 news.goldseek.com >> 12 August 2019

SWOT Analysis: Silver Is Catching Its Bid
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

The best performing metal this week was silver, up 4.78 percent. Silver had been somewhat detached from gold’s price changes, but now with recession odds rising, silver is catching its bid. Gold traders and analysts were bullish on their outlook for the yellow metal this week as it set a new six-year high above $1,500 per ounce. The metal saw a second straight weekly gain, fueled by uncertainty surrounding global trade tensions and monetary policy. Investors have taken notice of the rally with ETFs backed by gold growing holdings for nine straight days. Bloomberg reports that total gold held by ETFs rose 8.5 percent this year to 77.1 million ounces, the highest level in at least 12 months. SPDR Gold Shares, or the GLD, saw five straight days of inflows this week totaling a whopping $1 billion.

 news.goldseek.com >> 7 August 2019

5 Things Every Investor Should Know Right Now
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Given the considerable risks right now, is it any wonder that gold has performed so well this year? As I write this, the yellow metal is trading above $1,475, up 12.6 percent from the start of January.

Gold demand in the first half of 2019 was its best in three years, climbing to 2,181.7 tonnes, largely due to increased appetite for gold-backed ETFs as well as record buying by central banks. Bank purchases of bullion rose an incredible 47 percent year-over-year in the second quarter, pushing the total amount for the January-to-June period to its highest since central banks became net buyers of gold in 2010. Poland was the top buyer—ahead of Russia, even—with reserves growing 77 percent to 100 tonnes.

 news.goldseek.com >> 5 August 2019

SWOT Analysis: Gold Demand Hit a Three-Year High, Says the WGC
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

As the gold price continues to heat up, so too does M&A activity among gold miners. Resolute Mining Ltd. agreed to buy Toro Gold Ltd. for $274 million in cash and stock. Toro is private and operates its flagship asset in eastern Senegal. Citigroup is maintaining its third quarter average price forecast for the yellow metal at $1,425 per ounce.

Silver continues to pull in speculation from investors. The combined volume of calls and puts for silver soared to 218,000 contracts in July – the highest since November 2010. Bloomberg’s Justina Vasquez writes that silver is getting a boost, just like gold is, due to the prospect of central banks easing monetary policy. Investors are betting that silver will catch up to gold in terms of price gains.

 news.goldseek.com >> 1 August 2019

Get Ready for a Weaker U.S. Dollar… And Stronger Gold
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Unemployment in the U.S. is at a half-century low and the S&P 500 is trading at near-record highs. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve today trimmed interest rates for the first time since the financial crisis on stalled manufacturing growth and an anticipated world economic slowdown.

The easing cycle may be the catalyst gold needs to outperform the market and retrace its monster bull rally in the 2000s, according to Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone.

 news.goldseek.com >> 30 July 2019

Follow the Trend Lines, Not the Headlines
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

“Follow the trend lines, not the headlines,” President Bill Clinton once said. I’m a news junkie myself, but I guarantee you I wouldn’t be where I am today had I based every one of my investment decisions on what the talking heads tell me.

The headlines might make it feel like our lives are progressively getting worse sometimes, but the trend lines tell a different story. We’re living longer, healthier and freer lives than we were in years past.

Don’t believe me? Take a look..

 news.goldseek.com >> 29 July 2019

SWOT Analysis: $1,500 Gold by Year End?
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

JPMorgan research shows that no reserve currency lasts forever and many are questioning how long the U.S. dollar’s reign will last. Reserve currencies tend to be a reflection of markets that have the best prospects. JP Morgan sees the younger demographics and proliferating technological know-how of the Asian economic zone as having the best prospects with 50 percent of global GDP and two-thirds of global economic growth being the strongest contender. With $30 trillion in middle-class consumption growth forecast between 2015 to 2030, only $1 trillion is expected to come from Western economies. The bank sees the dollar deprecating over the medium term due to these structural reasons as well as cyclical impediments, which is why they recommend diversifying into developed markets and in Asia, as well as precious metals.

 news.goldseek.com >> 22 July 2019

Silver Seeks to Catch Up With Gold
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

The best performing metal this week was silver, up 6.40 percent on perhaps a paradigm shift as the investors poured $133 million into silver bullion ETFs on Wednesday, the single biggest inflow in six and a half years. The weekly Bloomberg survey of gold traders and analysts shows that most are bullish on the yellow metal as prices broke through a five-year high and touched $1,453 per ounce on Friday morning. Traders seem to be set on an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve this month, which is helping gold, even as some better-than-expected economic data was released on Tuesday. Turkey, which often sells its gold, saw its reserves rise by $71 million this week compared to last.

 news.goldseek.com >> 16 July 2019

Here’s What the Market Did EVERY TIME the Fed Cut Rates During an Economic Expansion
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Finally, analysts at Alpine Macro see the beginnings of gold’s “third great bull market of the post-war period.” A rate cut by the Fed could set in motion a multi-year bear market in the dollar, analysts write, which is very supportive of gold. With the recent technical break above $1,400, “new all-time highs for gold should be seen in the coming years,” the research firm writes.

SWOT Analysis: Will Gold Fall Back to $1,300?
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

According to data compiled by Bloomberg, the iShares Silver Trust had its best week in a year and hasn’t seen any outflows so far in July. Plus, the fund had its biggest monthly inflow since 2017 in June. Bloomberg’s Colin Beresford writes that silver has benefitted from haven demand as major central banks respond to weakening economic growth with a more dovish stance. The gold-to-silver ratio was at 93 this week, just shy of the high of 100 reached in February 1991.

 news.goldseek.com >> 8 July 2019

SWOT Analysis: Trump’s latest Fed picks could be positive for gold
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Some big names are backing gold this week—veteran investor Mark Mobius is one of them. As reported by Bloomberg, Mobius says that gold is set to push higher, potentially topping $1,500 an ounce, as interest rates head lower, central banks extend purchases and uncertainty surrounding geopolitics and cryptocurrencies fans demand. Strategists from Societe Generale are also looking at the yellow metal, particularly in the form of gold miners. In a note to investors, the strategists explain that gold equities tend to outperform physical gold through every cycle and have further to run. In addition, UBS raised its gold forecast to $1,450 on both trade and geopolitical risks.

 news.goldseek.com >> 5 July 2019

It’s Time We Talked About Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Instead of singling out the U.S.-China trade war as the catalyst for this potential slowdown, he criticized global monetary policy that currently favors lower interest rates and has created an imbalance relative to fiscal policy.

What banks should have done, Singer suggested, “and what they should do now, is try to restore the soundness of money. They should not be cutting rates right now. They should be calling on the congresses and parliaments around the developed world to take steps to deal with the economic slowdown in growth.”

I’ve seen Singer speak before, and he’s discussed at length that he likes gold for its diversification benefits. This is in line with fellow billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones, who recently said that gold is his favorite trade in the next 12 to 24 months.

 news.goldseek.com >> 1 July 2019

SWOT Analysis: 40% of Global Debt Now Delivers a Negative Yield
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Even as U.S. stocks remain near record highs, a growing cohort of investors say they are ready to throw in the towel, reports Bloomberg. According to the latest reading from the Conference Board’s sentiment indicator, the number of Americans expecting equities to decline over the next year jumped the most since 2007 and for the first time since January exceeds those who expect gains. In addition, consumer confidence dropped in the month of June, well below the range of consensus forecasts, reports Bloomberg. Confidence dropped 10 points to 121.5, raising a potential red flag regarding households’ willingness to drive growth beyond trend over the next several months.

 news.goldseek.com >> 25 June 2019

Gold Gets a Boost of Rocket Fuel From Negative Bond Yields
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Ladies and gentlemen, we have liftoff!

After breaking out of a five-year trading range, the price of gold surged above $1,400 an ounce last week for the first time since 2013 on expectations of a U.S. rate cut. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to around 2 percent, its lowest level since November 2016. Meanwhile, the pool of negative-yielding government bonds around the world hit a fresh record high of $13 trillion.

 news.goldseek.com >> 24 June 2019

SWOT Analysis: Central Banks Continue to Show Their Love for Gold
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Central banks continue to show their love for gold. Kazakhstan raised its gold holdings to 11.93 million ounces in May, up from 11.79 million ounces in April. Russia’s climbed from 70.2 million ounces to 70.42 in May. Turkey was also up to 16.03 million ounces in May from 15.99 in April. Additionally, Turkey saw its gold reserves rise $167 million this week from the previous week to now total $21.7 million worth of reserves, according to central bank data.

Illegal gold mining in Ghana is now being cracked down on. A veteran NASA engineer developed a software tool that is capable of identifying illegal mines from satellite photos, making it easier to find and shut down illegal operations. Refiners are also taking steps to reduce illegal mining.

 news.goldseek.com >> 19 June 2019

This Billionaire Says Gold Has Everything Going For It
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Last week was a strong one for gold, which managed to eke out its fourth straight week of positive gains. The price of the yellow metal broke above $1,350 an ounce last Friday, while gold miners, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, tested their 52-week high.

Investors sought safe haven investments on a number of geopolitical risks, including protests in Hong Kong over the now-delayed extradition bill and an attack on two oil tankers near Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s busiest sea lane through which a fifth of global oil consumption passes. After placing the blame on Tehran, President Donald Trump now faces a tough decision on how to respond, if at all.

 news.goldseek.com >> 11 June 2019

Put Your Trust in Gold
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Americans’ trust in institutions, from the federal government to banks to the news media, has been deteriorating for decades. Sixty years ago, three quarters of Americans expressed faith in the government to do the right thing “most of the time” or “just about always.” Today, only one in five people, a near-record low, believes our leaders make decisions in the country’s best interest.

The news media fares just as poorly. A new survey finds that Americans believe “fake news” is a bigger problem right now than violent crime, illegal immigration and terrorism.

Just take a look at the chart below, based on Gallup polling data going back to 1973. Whether it’s newspapers, television news or, more recently, online news, Americans’ faith is steadily eroding...

 news.goldseek.com >> 10 June 2019

SWOT Analysis: Inflows Into Gold ETFs Are Gaining Momentum
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Ecuador just made a big show of support for the nation’s mining industry. The Vice President and Minister of Energy and Non-renewable Natural Resources visited Lundin Gold’s flagship project, where 50 percent of the construction is completed. The officials also presented a new Public Mining Policy that focuses on supporting large-scale operations and investments, and eradicating illegal mining.

The focus on “weak dollar policy” continues from lawmakers. Senator Elizabeth Warren called for “actively managing” the U.S. dollar’s valuation as a part of a plan to create more American jobs. A weaker dollar has historically been positive for the price of gold. President Trump has also been critical of a strong dollar.

 news.goldseek.com >> 6 June 2019

Global Manufacturers Just Shrank for the First Time in Seven Years
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

The reason why the slowdown should be a concern for investors is because of the manufacturing sector’s outsized role in the broader U.S. economy. In the fourth quarter, manufacturers contributed some $2.38 trillion to the U.S. economy, accounting for nearly 12 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The sector also has a huge multiplier effect. For every $1 that’s spent in manufacturing, another $1.82 is created, according to the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM).

Higher consumer demand for goods and services means manufacturers require greater amounts of raw materials and natural resources. This benefits the metals and mining sector, not to mention energy, transportation and more.

 news.goldseek.com >> 4 June 2019

SWOT Analysis: Gold Traders Are on Recession Watch
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

The bond market is flashing a recession signal and it could be good for gold. Win Thin, head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, told Bloomberg that “if the U.S. goes into a recession, then the Federal Reserve cuts rates and the dollar’s yield advantage evaporates.” A weaker dollar is historically positive for gold, and the latest tariffs are another sign that the Fed could cut rates.

 news.goldseek.com >> 29 May 2019

DOUBLE WHAMMY: Fed Policy and the U.S.-China Trade War
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Higher Inflation Has Historically Meant Higher Gold Prices

The good news in all this is that higher inflation has historically been supportive of the price of gold. In the years when inflation was 3 percent or higher, annual gold returns were 15 percent on average, according to the World Gold Council (WGC).

When gold hit its all-time high of $1,900 an ounce in August 2011, consumer prices were up nearly 4 percent from the same time the previous year. The two-year Treasury yield, meanwhile, averaged only 0.21 percent, meaning the T-note was delivering a negative real yield and investors were paying the U.S. government to hang on to their money. This created a favorable climate for gold, as investors sought a safe haven asset that would at least beat inflation. Go gold!

 news.goldseek.com >> 28 May 2019

SWOT Analysis: Another Two Countries Want to Up Their Gold Intake
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Citi upgraded Newmont Goldcorp to a buy and said that it offers “superior value” versus its peers in a challenging market, reports Bloomberg. The bank also downgraded Barrick to neutral. Giant Barrick Gold Corp. is proposing it buys the shares of Acacia Mining Plc that it doesn’t already own at a discount. The proposal implies a valuation of $787 for the entirety of Acacia, which is well below current market capitalization of $832 million. Barrick’s last no premium offer for Newmont back in February was withdrawn after just 17 days, as investors thumbed their nose at the offer. Will a discounted offer win the day? Not likely.

 news.goldseek.com >> 23 May 2019

How to Unrig the Gold Market, According to GATA’s Chris Powell
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

In an earlier post, I gave you a sneak preview of my interview with Chris Powell, secretary/treasurer at Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA). For 20 years now, Chris and others at GATA have made it their mission to expose collusion by international financial institutions to control the price and supply of gold.

Below are highlights from my interview with Chris. I have to say that during much of our conversation, my jaw was on the floor. I don’t want to say much more than that! Read on, and remember to share widely.

 news.goldseek.com >> 21 May 2019

SWOT Analysis: Gold Bulls Regained the Upper Hand
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Tavi Costa, a global macro analyst at Crescat Capital LLC – one of last year’s best performing hedge funds – expects China’s debt woes to spur a rally in gold, reports Bloomberg. 2019 is shaping up to be the biggest so far for defaults in its $13 trillion bond market. In a telephone interview, Costa says that “the one pattern we found is that gold in local currency terms tends to rise significantly as a credit bust develops.” Costa calls its bullish bet on gold the “trade of the century.”

 news.goldseek.com >> 14 May 2019

These 3 Charts Will Convince Investors That Time May Be Running Out
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

So what does this mean? Besides being a strain on international relations—a tariff is essentially a tax that must be paid to the U.S. government before a shipment can clear customs. But here’s the kicker: Tariffs are typically paid not by the exporting company but by the importer. In other words, it’s U.S.-based companies that are picking up the tab—then passing the extra expense on to American consumers.

With the exception of the U.S. Treasury, which collects the tariff payments, few stand to benefit here...

 news.goldseek.com >> 13 May 2019

SWOT Analysis: China Bought Gold for Fifth Straight Month
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

China has now bought gold for the fifth straight month. The People’ Bank of China grew gold reserves to 61.1 million ounces in April, marking the biggest boost since 2016. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S, told Bloomberg that “banks buying is the underlying demand story which continues to develop from central banks seeking to de-dollarize their reserves.” Gold imports by India grew to 121 tons last month from 52.8 tons a year earlier, as prices fell and demand grew ahead of the second-biggest gold-buying day in the Hindu calendar.

 news.goldseek.com >> 6 May 2019

SWOT Analysis: A Photo Finish for Gold
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Russia’s central bank emerged as the biggest buyer of gold in April, purchasing 19.4 tons, according to data from the World Gold Council (WGC). China also bought 11.2 tons and Kazakhstan bought 5.4 tons. India is considering reducing the import tax on gold from the current 10 percent to 4 percent. Bloomberg reports that the proposal is being reviewed by the Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs.

Turkey’s central bank turned bullish on gold this week after selling last week. The nation’s central bank reserves rose $51 million from the prior week to now be worth $20.4 billion...

 news.goldseek.com >> 29 April 2019

SWOT Analysis: World Bank Sees Gold Prices Higher in 2019
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Investors who are striving to optimize their portfolios should consider taking cues from the world’s central banks, writes the Financial Express. “Informed money,” such as these banks, is the cash invested by those who have a better understanding of the market, or with access to information channels that a regular investor does not. Furthermore, Bloomberg writes that official sector gold purchases could reach 700 tons this year, “assuming the China trend continues apace and Russia at least matches its 2018 volumes.” India’s central bank is likely to join its counterparts, as the Reserve Bank of Index (RBI) may purchase 1.5 million ounces in 2019, according to Howie Lee, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp.

 news.goldseek.com >> 22 April 2019

SWOT Analysis: Venezuela Liquidated $400 Million in Gold Last Week
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Gold demand has been supported lately by the idea that global output could begin to roll over on higher operating costs and the lack of large discoveries. However, it doesn’t look as if “peak gold” has arrived just yet. Output is expected to rise to 109.6 million ounces this year, an increase of 2.1 percent more than in 2018, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. This will be “the strongest growth in the past three years, debunking commentary calling for peak gold,” analyst Christopher Galbraith told Bloomberg. Galbraith added that more than half of the increase “is projected to come from new mines that are expected to come on stream this year or have recently commissioned.”

 news.goldseek.com >> 15 April 2019

SWOT Analysis: Google Pay Is Launching Gold Buying in India
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

· Oliver Allen of Capital Economics writes that the group expects the S&P 500 to drop by roughly one-fifth in 2019 and that gold will come to the fore again as a safe haven asset. The research firm forecasts gold to rally to $1,400 per ounce by the end of the year. AO Chong of CITIC Securities cites a number of risk events that should bring gradual haven demand up for gold. The analyst says the IMF cutting global economic growth outlooks, rising geopolitical uncertainty, the downward trend of real interest rates and the continued central bank gold buying should all be positive for the yellow metal.

 news.goldseek.com >> 12 April 2019

What Ballooning Corporate Debt Means for Investors
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

I want to end by sharing some excellent news from Metals Focus. The London-based commodities research group just released the 2019 edition of its widely-read Gold Focus report, and the big news is that global gold demand will climb to its highest level in four years. The uptick is expected to be driven by an increase in jewelry fabrication, with India, China and Italy leading consumption higher.

 news.goldseek.com >> 9 April 2019

SWOT Analysis: Will Gold Rally to $1,500 This Year?
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, managing partner at Incrementum AG, says that gold is poised to rally to $1,450 to $1,500 per ounce by year end if it breaks through the $1,360 to $1,380 per ounce resistance level. Stoeferle says that one of the drivers will be demand from pension funds, high-net worth individuals and wealth managers. Bloomberg writes that Stoeferle also cities his fund’s own inflation indicator to support his bullish gold view, which is currently showing increasing momentum. Goldman Sachs is also bullish on the yellow metals as it expects a rebound in ETF holdings to continue due to late-cycle worries and negative German 10-year real rates.

 news.goldseek.com >> 1 April 2019

SWOT Analysis: Central Banks Are Buying Gold at a Record Clip
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Globally, central banks have purchased a whopping 126 tons of gold so far this quarter, the fastest rate since 1971, according to Morgan Stanley. Most of this purchasing has come from China, Russia and Turkey. Russia has been adding to its gold reserves rapidly in an effort to “de-dollarize” and break reliance on the U.S. dollar. Renaissance Capital says that gold buying in Russia has now exceeded its mine supply and the country could soon start to import the metal.

 news.goldseek.com >> 27 March 2019

Gold Mining Stocks Are Surging on Global Economic Fears
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

But will yields turn negative? I can’t say for sure, of course. What I can say is that gold and gold mining stocks have historically been a good place to be positioned when economic fears pushed down bond yields.

This is why I always recommend a 10 percent weighting in gold, with 5 percent in physical gold and the other 5 percent in high-quality gold mining stocks and funds. I like to call this the 10 Percent Golden Rule, and in the past, it’s helped investors stanch some of the losses they’ve experienced during economic pullbacks and equity bear markets.

 news.goldseek.com >> 26 March 2019

7 Market-Moving Charts Investors Need to See
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

1. Palladium in Overbought Territory

The price of palladium briefly topped $1,600 an ounce for the first time ever last week on a widening supply-demand imbalance. Markets sent the metal higher on news that Russia, the world’s number one producer of palladium, was set to ban the export of scrap metal, which would have the effect of squeezing global supply even further. This comes a week after car manufacturers signaled an increase in demand for palladium, which is used in the production of pollution-scrubbing catalytic converters.

As such, the palladium-to-gold ratio—or the measure of how many ounces of gold can be purchased with one ounce of palladium—is now at an historical high.

 news.goldseek.com >> 25 March 2019

SWOT Analysis: Hedge Funds Boosting Their Long Position on Platinum
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Citigroup is bullish on platinum because its sister metal, palladium, continues to surge. Although platinum’s volatility surged to a six-month high, the bank believes the investment case for the metal is strong. It thinks substitution will eventually occur, which would raise demand and tighten supply further. Analysts including Max Layton wrote in a March 19 report that “platinum currently appears to embed an in-the-money call option on palladium.”

 news.goldseek.com >> 18 March 2019

SWOT Analysis: Goldcorp Chairman Ian Telfer’s $12 Million Retirement
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

The gold price increase could be stymied by positive data, according to Tapan Patel, senior analyst at India’s most valuable bank, HDFC Bank. Patel said “things look to be settling down” and that “we can expect the risk appetite to come down and see investors shifting to the dollar from gold.” The bank forecasts that gold will trade between $1,240 and $1,380 an ounce this year.

 news.goldseek.com >> 15 March 2019

Gold Miners Are Finally Making Some Interesting Capital Investments
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

As was the case at the BMO Global Metals & Mining Conference a week earlier, one of the dominant thoughts on everyone’s minds was Barrick Gold’s $17.8 billion hostile takeover of its longtime rival Newmont Mining.

This Monday we learned that, after both parties spoke with top shareholders, the bid fell through. But rather than continuing to duke it out in the capital markets, the two mining giants will instead be entering into a joint venture (JV) in Nevada. The JV will combine significant deposits and mines, processing facilities and infrastructure to unlock significant synergies.

As a standalone company, the Nevada complex will be the world’s single-largest gold producing operations, according to equity research firm GMP Securities.

 news.goldseek.com >> 11 March 2019

SWOT Analysis: China Continues to Grow Its Gold Reserves
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

China grew its gold reserves for the third straight month to 60.26 million ounces, up from 59.94 million ounces in January, according to data on the People’s Bank of China website. Robin Bhar, head of metals research at Societe Generale SA said: “Ongoing efforts to diversify total reserves – away from the U. S. dollar – have prompted gold purchases by the PBOC, which we believe will continue.” Physical gold demand also picked up in major Asian hubs this week, as bullion was sold at a premium for the first time in more than three months in India, the world’s second largest consumer, according to Reuters.

 news.goldseek.com >> 8 March 2019

Can the Bull Market Run for Another 10 Years?
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

The current stock bull market, already the longest in U.S. history, turns 10 years old this month. It’s been a phenomenally profitable time to participate, especially if you’ve stuck to an investment strategy that favors dividend-paying stocks.

As you can see in the chart below, the amount of cash that S&P 500 Index companies have returned to shareholders has grown each year since 2009. In the final three months of 2018 alone, S&P companies paid out $119.8 billion, a quarterly record. Total dividends for the full year stood at $456.3 billion, up 9 percent from the previous year—another new record.

 news.goldseek.com >> 4 March 2019

SWOT Analysis: JPMorgan Is Bullish on Gold
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Turkey continues to sell its gold reserves. Central bank data from Ankara shows that reserves fell 4.5 tons month-over-month in January to 440.8 tons. At least eight tons of gold were removed from Venezuela’s central bank last week, according to unidentified government sources who did not say where the gold was going to. In 2018, 23 tons of Venezuelan gold was transported to Istanbul, and some speculate that is the same place this going is going to as well.

 news.goldseek.com >> 25 February 2019

SWOT Analysis: Will Hedge Funds Ramp Up Their Bullish Gold Bets?
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

In a note to investors this week, Morgan Stanley’s Macro Strategy Group lifted its September recommendation to be long gold, despite expectations of a weaker U.S. dollar and lower real interest rates in 2019. The research group bases its decision on two factors. One, because the price of gold has risen “materially” in recent months, it’s left little upside to Morgan Stanley’s earlier forecast of $1,350 an ounce by year’s end. And two, the target of $1,350 is “a price level gold has struggled to break on a sustained basis for the better part of five years.” If the precious metal manages to break above the target price, the analysts write, “We may need to revisit our view.”

 news.goldseek.com >> 20 February 2019

Will 2019 Be the Year of King Copper?
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

To meet surging demand, four U.S. copper projects are set to open by next year, the first to do so in decades, according to Reuters. And Ivanhoe Mines, founded by my friend Robert Friedland, is in the process of developing the Kamoa-Kakula copper deposit in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which Robert describes as the second-largest copper mine in the world.

“You’re going to need a telescope to see copper prices in 2021,” Robert told us when he visited our office last year.

 news.goldseek.com >> 19 February 2019

SWOT Analysis: Agnico Eagle Mines Is Forecasting Record Gold Output
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

China, the number one consumer of gold, added to its gold reserves for the second month in a row after a two-year dry spell. The People’s Bank of China increased its holdings to 59.94 million ounces in January, up from 59.56 in December. Russia’s gold output in 2018 rose 2.5 percent year-over-year to 314.42 tons, while silver production grew 7.2 percent to 1,119.95 tons. Russia is also taking steps to make gold investing accessible to more people. According to Bloomberg, the government is considering opening the precious metals market participation by allowing retail investors to buy bullion for their individual investment accounts.

 news.goldseek.com >> 13 February 2019

Gold Love Trade Could Set New Valentine’s Spending Record
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

But what kind of jewelry should you get your spouse or partner? You may have seen stories about how yellow gold jewelry—as opposed to white and rose gold, not to mention silver and platinum—began to fall out of favor in the 1990s, the attitude being that it was “tacky” or “old fashioned.” Personally, I don’t believe it’s ever fallen out of fashion, but we have been seeing its popularity gain additional ground lately. Look no further than Menē, the revolutionary 24-karat jewelry company that’s disrupting the industry.

Much of the renewed interest in yellow gold jewelry is thanks to Prince Harry, who presented Meghan Markle with a gold engagement ring in late 2017. Speaking to the BBC, the prince said that choosing yellow gold was a no-brainer.

 news.goldseek.com >> 12 February 2019

This AI Company Is the Future of Gold Exploration
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Over the centuries, a number of innovations have emerged that disrupted and forever changed how we explore and mine for gold and other metals. Think dynamite, or the steam engine.

Lately, however, innovation has slowed. Mining companies are in cost-cutting mode, and many producers have favored generating short-term cash flow, often to the detriment of longer-term value. In last year’s “Tracking the Trends” report, Deloitte analysts observed that “miners from 50 years ago would find little has changed if they entered today’s mines, a situation that certainly doesn’t hold true in other industries.”

 news.goldseek.com >> 11 February 2019

SWOT Analysis: Palladium Prices Have Surged Past Gold
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Central banks bought 651.1 tons of gold last year, the second highest annual total on record and up 74 percent from the year earlier, according to the World Gold Council. Goldman Sachs predicts that central banks will continue to be big purchasers of gold in 2019 due to elevated geopolitical tensions and less pressure on emerging market currencies. A model the company uses shows that central banks will purchase around 650 tons of the yellow metal this year – the same level as 2018. Many central banks could be purchasing gold on concerns that the U.S. is using the dollar to exert its dominance on the global financial system, writes the New York Times. Azerbaijan’s sovereign wealth fund is looking to nearly double its holdings of gold in 2019 to 100 tons, just after going five years without buying any prior to last year. Executive Director Shahmar Movsumov said in an interview that “we would not want to have something that is not someone else’s credit risk.”

 news.goldseek.com >> 7 February 2019

Will the China Bulls Turn Out for the Year of the Pig?
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

China and the surrounding region has experienced many changes since USCOX opened in 1994, but we believe the region continues to hold further investment opportunities. Many Asian countries possess characteristics similar to the U.S. prior to the industrial revolution: a thriving, young workforce; migration from rural to urban areas; and shifting sentiment toward consumption.


 news.goldseek.com >> 5 February 2019

Central Banks Haven’t Bought This Much Gold Since Nixon Closed the Gold Window
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Something big is happening in the gold market right now, and nowhere is that more apparent than in central banks of emerging economies. Last year was a watershed in the size of official gold purchases, as banks added an incredible 651.5 tonnes (worth some $27.7 billion) to their holdings, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). Not only is this a remarkable 74 percent change from 2017, but it’s also the most on record going back to 1971, when President Richard Nixon brought a formal end to the gold standard. In the final quarter of 2018 alone, central banks purchased as much as 195 tonnes, the most for any quarter on record, according to leading precious metal research firm GFMS.

 news.goldseek.com >> 4 February 2019

SWOT Analysis: Fastest Rate of Central Bank Gold Buying Since 1971
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released several decisions this week that could be positive for gold. As summarized by David Doyle at Macquarie Group, those changes are: being patient in market future adjustments and removing forward guidance on further rate hikes. The balance sheet normalization path is also flexible, and the Fed is willing to use the balance sheet if economic conditions warrant it. Brown Brother Harriman wrote that the Fed sent a clear signal to buy equities and sell the dollar, which is positive for gold.

 news.goldseek.com >> 1 February 2019

These Emerging Markets Could Soar If the Dollar Falls
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Last year was admittedly a tough one for emerging markets. A number of currencies were under considerable pressure, with some of them falling to record or near-record lows against the strong U.S. dollar. Global trade tensions, threats of sanctions, rising U.S. interest rates and higher oil prices—before they began to crater in October, that is—also contributed to the selloff. From its 52-week high set in January 2018, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index sunk into bear market territory by the end of October.

 news.goldseek.com >> 28 January 2019

SWOT Analysis: Gold Traders Bullish for 11th Straight Week
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

UBS analysts Giovanni Staunovo and Wayne Gordon wrote in a report this week that gold’s reaction to the stock market volatility in late 2018 has confirmed its role as a safe-haven asset. They write that gold “served investors well as a diversifier… and helped reduce portfolio swings,” and that “these qualities should remain highly relevant for investors this year as the business cycle matures further.” According to SkyBridge Capital, gold could become even more attractive in 2020, as a possible U.S. recession could lead the Fed to loosen monetary policy. Troy Gayseki, senior portfolio manager, told Bloomberg that “it is plausible that the next great monetary easing starts in later 2020, which of course would be very supportive for precious metals.”

 news.goldseek.com >> 24 January 2019

Why This Billionaire Just Bought Gold for the First Time in His Life
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Billionaire Sam Zell just announced that he bought gold for the very first time in his life because, as he puts it, “it is a good hedge.” In a recent Bloomberg interview, the Equity International founder and creator of the real estate investment trust (REIT) admitted to seeing an opportunity in gold’s increasing supply shortage.

“For the first time in my life, I bought gold because it is a good hedge,” Zell, 77, told Bloomberg. “Supply is shrinking, and that is going to have a positive impact on the price.”

He added: “The amount of capital being put into gold mines is at most nonexistent. All of the money is being used to buy up rivals.”

 news.goldseek.com >> 14 January 2019

SWOT Analysis: 10 Straight Days of Gold ETF Inflows
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

The best performing metal this week was palladium, up 1.71 percent, and now the most expensive precious metal. Gold, meanwhile, is set for its fourth weekly gain, marking its longest rally since October. Traders surveyed by Bloomberg are bullish on the yellow metal for a ninth straight week. In December, China added to its gold reserves for the first time since October 2016, according to the People’s Bank of China. Reserves now total 59.56 million ounces, or $76.331 billion. China – the world’s top producer of gold – adding to its reserves is a bullish sign for the precious metal.

 news.goldseek.com >> 8 January 2019

Is the Fed Done Hiking Rates? Watch the Price of Gold
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

King Dollar was on top in 2018, one of the few major assets to close the year in the black on steady interest rate hikes and robust economic growth in the U.S. But greenback strength is a double-edged sword, as you know. Although good for U.S. consumers, it can hamper exporters, commodities, oil, gold and more.

So will rates continue to rise in 2019? If so, the dollar will follow suit, putting additional pressure on other assets. I think there are a number of signs that the rate hike we saw in December could be the last one this cycle.

 news.goldseek.com >> 7 January 2019

Gold SWOT Analysis: Momentum Is Building
By: Frank Holmes

Merrill Lynch research analyst Michael Jalonen writes that the outlook for gold in 2019 is very promising, with the potential to reach $1,400 per ounce by the end of the year. This could happen due to U.S. twin deficits and China easing monetary policy. Barrick Gold’s new CEO says that shakeups in the gold industry are just starting.

 news.goldseek.com >> 26 September 2018

Two Big Reasons Why I Believe China Looks Attractive Right Now
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Emerging markets continue to decouple from the U.S. market, making them look attractive as a value play—particularly distressed Chinese equities. Below I’ll share with you two big reasons why I think China is well-positioned to outperform over the long term.

So far this year, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has given up about 10 percent, mostly on currency weakness and global trade fears. The S&P 500 Index, meanwhile, has advanced roughly 9 percent as a flood of passive index buying pushes valuations up and companies buy back their own stock at a record pace.

 news.goldseek.com >> 30 May 2018

Building a Better U.S. Economy
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

I often say it’s not about which party is in power but rather the policies that matter. Whether the Republicans or the Democrats control Washington isn’t the point. There are ways for investors to make money in either case, and right now, government policy favors domestic small-cap stocks that have limited exposure to overseas markets. The trend is your friend, as they say, and with respect to small-caps, that certainly seems to be the case.

 news.goldseek.com >> 29 May 2018

SWOT Analysis: Brent Crude Prices Diverge From Gold And Copper
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

The best performing metal this week was platinum, up 1.50 percent on expected Chinese demand for the metal, where demand for heavy-duty emission legislation will come into play by 2020. Bloomberg’s weekly survey showed that gold traders and analysts are divided on their outlook for bullion prices for next week. The yellow metal rose higher this week amid mounting geopolitical tensions and talks of tariffs on automobile imports.

 news.goldseek.com >> 27 December 2017

10 Charts that Show Why Gold Is Undervalued Right Now
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

With the year quickly coming to a close, it might be time to start thinking about rebalancing the gold holdings in your portfolio. That includes bullion, jewelry, gold stocks and well-managed gold funds—all of which I recommend giving a collective 10 percent weighting. Because it’s been such a strong year for stocks—they’ve advanced more than 20 percent as of today—it’s likely that most investors will need to add to their gold exposure to meet that 10 percent weighting as we head into 2018.

 news.goldseek.com >> 7 August 2017

SWOT Analysis: What’s Next for the Yellow Metal?
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

This is the second year in a row that policy changes in India may have strained gold sales, reports Bloomberg. Consumption is seen between 650 and 750 metric tons this year, compared to the annual average of around 850 tons in the previous half decade. The Indian government’s push to boost financial transparency cut consumption this year as they enacted a new consumer tax system, the article continues.

 news.goldseek.com >> 3 August 2017

Surprise! Gold Prices Have Beaten the Market So Far this Century
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Spot gold finished July up more than 2 percent, its best month since February, when it returned 3.7 percent. The yellow metal responded to a struggling U.S. dollar, which has lost more than 10 percent so far this year relative to other currencies and is currently at a 15-month low. The dollar could very well continue to slide on additional political uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump and his administration. This would mean further upside for gold and gold stocks.

 news.goldseek.com >> 31 July 2017

SWOT Analysis: Popularity Rises for Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs)
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

The best performing precious metal for the week was palladium, up 4.29 percent on hedge fund managers increasing their bullish positioning on the metal as expectations of increased usage in automotive catalyst to curb pollution. China’s purchase of bullion bars in the first half of the year rose 51 percent, reports Bloomberg, setting gold up for a sixth monthly gain in seven. China gold demand rose 545.23 tons, including gold bars to 158.40 tons. And as global gold prices retreat, China purchased more bullion from Hong Kong in June.

 news.goldseek.com >> 24 July 2017

SWOT Analysis: Silver In the Spotlight
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Scotia Mining Sales notes that as silver has gotten cheap again, particularly when looking at the widening gold-silver ratio, investors have been piling into silver ETFs (while dropping out of gold ETFs). Interestingly enough, there seems to be a bearish outlook in the futures market, where hedge funds are now holding the first net short silver position seen in two years, the group writes. The risk of higher U.S. interest rates should drive silver prices lower, is the reasoning behind this. However, if the Fed “blinks” and silver prices rebound, they will rebound quickly and violently, Scotia continues.

 news.goldseek.com >> 20 June 2017

Small-Cap Mining Stocks, Big-Time Opportunity
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Commodity prices have lately underperformed equities mostly on subdued oil demand growth, with the S&P GSCI commodity index falling about 4 percent over the last month. If we separate the index components, however, we see that precious metals have posted positive gains year-to-date along with industrial metals.

 news.goldseek.com >> 13 June 2017

Hope for the Best but Prepare for the Worst (with Gold and Munis)
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Daniel Marburger, CEO of European coin dealer CoinInvest, told Bloomberg that he had just finished working with a German customer whose bank account was charged negative interest rates. To prevent this from happening again, the customer converted his cash into gold and silver, which he sees as a more reliable store of value.

Negative rates are “definitely a driving factor and will lead to more sales and also more storage clients,” Marburger said.

 news.goldseek.com >> 12 June 2017

SWOT Analysis: Gold’s Strength Is Justified Says UBS
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Amid unease over a congressional hearing on possible links between Russia and the Trump campaign, holdings in SPDR Gold Shares (the world’s largest gold-backed ETF) climbed to the highest this year on the back of safe-haven demand, reports Bloomberg. In the two weeks through the end of May, hedge funds and other large speculators boosted their bullish bets on the precious metal by 37 percent, notes another Bloomberg article, the most since 2007 according to government data.

 news.goldseek.com >> 29 December 2016

Gold Technically Oversold, Ready for a Price Reversal
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

In more ways than one, 2016 was a roller coaster year. One need only look at gold’s performance to confirm this. After rallying more than 30 percent in the first half, the precious metal stalled in the days before the U.S. election, then retreated on a weekly basis, under pressure from a strengthening dollar and tightening monetary policy.

As you can see in the oscillator below, gold is now down more than two standard deviations from its mean, or average, dollar amount. The reason I show you this is because, in the past, this was a good time to begin accumulating, as mean reversion soon followed.

 news.goldseek.com >> 28 December 2016

Holiday Edition: Here Are the Top 6 Frank Talk Posts of 2016
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

This year has been one for the history books. Donald Trump was elected as the 45th president of the United States, gold had its best quarter in a generation, Warren Buffett decided he likes airlines again and voters in the United Kingdom elected to leave the European Union. Loyal readers of the Investor Alert newsletter and my CEO blog Frank Talk know that we covered it all, too.

As we head into the New Year, I want to share with you the six most popular Frank Talk posts of 2016. Before I do that, however, I think it’s important to note one recurring theme I write about that continues to help our investment team and shareholders better understand the movement in commodities and energy: the purchasing managers’ index (PMI).

 news.goldseek.com >> 27 December 2016

SWOT Analysis: This Could Result In a More Bullish Scenario for Gold
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

In other gold-related news from Deutsche Bank, the group assesses the value of the gold “cost curve” when it comes to providing a fair value reference for the metal. Skeptical at first, the bank now recognizes that since 2000, the 90th percentile producer has been a good indicator of the minimum weekly gold price in a given year. “Under these assumptions, the gold price in 2017 would average $1,200 an ounce, with the minimum weekly price falling to $1,060 an ounce.

 news.goldseek.com >> 22 August 2016

SWOT Analysis: Gold Demand to See Boost from Indian Wedding Season
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Gold investment in the first half of the year broke previous levels, as seen in the chart below, with both coin and bar demand, as well as ETF product demand, soaring to record levels. Gold demand will get another boost in India as wedding season starts to heat up, particularly with the metal currently trading at a $40-$50 discount in the country, reports Bloomberg. Bullion traders noted persistent buying by jewelers at domestic markets to meet festive season demand.

 news.goldseek.com >> 18 July 2016

SWOT Analysis: Why Abenomics Cynics Are Buying Gold and Selling the Yen
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

“Gold is the unprintable currency, unlike the yen,” said Itsuo Toshima, former regional manager for the World Gold Council in Tokyo. According to Bloomberg News, Abenomics skeptics are selling the yen to buy this unprintable currency – gold. Individual investors drove a 60 percent jump in sales of the precious metal in June from May at Tanaka Holdings, the operator of Japan’s largest bullion retailer.

 news.goldseek.com >> 27 June 2016

SWOT Analysis: Last Week’s Gold Moves Explained
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Despite the surge in gold prices on Friday following the U.K. vote, it was the worst performing precious metal for the week, although still up 1.43 percent. Gold backed ETFs have seen a surge in assets this year as investors have started to discount that political leaders at the central banks around the world have lost their mojo, as you can see in the chart...

 news.goldseek.com >> 20 June 2016

SWOT Analysis: Gold Has Room to Run
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

The current ratio between gold and copper is showing a “recession-era fear level,” Bloomberg reports. Gold jumped to the most expensive relative to copper since 2009 this week. The price of copper (seen as an economic bellwether), has slumped over Brexit worries, while the low interest rate outlook has fueled demand for bullion – driving the ratio between the two farther apart.

 news.goldseek.com >> 13 June 2016

Gold SWOT Analysis: 13-June, 2016
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Philippines’ new president-elect Rodrigo Duerte has come out warning mining companies to “shape up,” reports Business Insider. Duerte stated that his incoming government might rewrite laws to limit environmental degradation as a result of mining, continues the article. “I have a big problem with mining companies,” he said. “They are destroying the soil of our country.

 news.goldseek.com >> 6 June 2016

SWOT Analysis: Gold Advances After Surprising Jobs Report
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

“Gold may be embarking on a new bull run and has the scope to rise to $1,400 per ounce over the coming year,” Allocated Bullion Solutions (ABS) stated in a report on Wednesday. The group expects market weakness to persist in the short term, along with a reappraisal from the market on the path of U.S. monetary policy.

 news.goldseek.com >> 1 June 2016

Here Are the World’s Top 10 Gold Producing Mines
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Gold output across the globe hit an all-time high in 2015, climbing 1.8 percent to 3,211 tonnes. Much of this growth was led by Mexico, whose output increased double digits (18 percent) from 112 tonnes in 2014 to 133 tonnes last year. Indonesia grew 20 percent, Kazakhstan 29 percent.
This year, global production is expected to level out as project development budgets were slashed during the three-year gold bear market. But with gold prices rebounding, miners are in a good position to be much more profitable.
Read to explore and discover the world’s top 10 gold producing mines.

 news.goldseek.com >> 23 May 2016

SWOT Analysis: Following Fed Minutes, Where Will Gold Go Next?
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

In BCA’s weekly report, the research group writes “Investors are making a huge mistake in thinking that central banks are out of bullets…helicopter money is coming.” They go on to explain that once deployed, this policy will be more successful than people imagine.

 news.goldseek.com >> 16 May 2016

SWOT Analysis: The Smart Money Is Flowing Into Gold
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

The best performing precious metal for the week was gold, down just -1.15 percent on a slightly stronger dollar and better than expected U.S. retail sales. Money flows for gold are benefiting from what Bank of America is calling an “equity exodus.” The bank points out that while $7.4 billion in equity outflows have taken place over the past five weeks, $3.5 billion went into bonds and $1 billion into precious metals. In the first three months of 2016, investors snapped up gold at a record pace, and even commodities investor Dennis Gartman told CNBC that he is becoming more bullish on the yellow metal.

 news.goldseek.com >> 9 May 2016

SWOT Analysis: Will the Gold Rally Persist?
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

As we know, China recently introduced a new yuan priced gold fix. Within a week of the new fix being introduced however, Russia and China announced a new gold trading platform, reports Sputnik News. In a recent interview with Austrian Economist Sandeep Jaitly, Double Down asks him to explain the purpose of the fix and what the gold moves by Russia and China could tell us about the current fiat money system. Sandeep noted that with the demise of the London Gold Fix, which used to be set in pounds sterling and moved to only the dollar fix after World War II, has opened the door for the Chinese to be the price setter of physical gold.

 news.goldseek.com >> 2 May 2016

SWOT Analysis: Gold and Gold Miners Are Rallying
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) opted against boosting stimulus this week, in a decision that battered the U.S. dollar and gave gold a surprise lift, reports Bloomberg. The Japanese yen also reacted to the bank’s decision, surging the most since the 2010 stock-market meltdown. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged too, helping to boost the yellow metal.

 news.goldseek.com >> 25 April 2016

SWOT Analysis: Central Bank Overreach Benefits Gold
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Bank of America thinks the breakout we are witnessing in silver is for real, stating in a technical report this week that the precious metal could begin a bull move higher. Deutsche Bank agrees and believes silver could rise to $20 in near-term momentum. Silver has outperformed gold in nine of the last 10 sessions, reports Bloomberg, with the gold/silver ratio falling to the lowest since October.

 news.goldseek.com >> 18 April 2016

Why One Analyst Believes Gold Could Hit $3,000
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Based on a regression analysis holding gold as the independent variable, a negative 0.5 percent real rate level would suggest a gold price of $1,380 an ounce and a negative 1.0 real rate level would suggest a gold price of $1,546 an ounce… The potential for inflation rates to move upwards and match U.S. Treasury yields, which continue to be held down in the short-term, could create a 1970s-esque phase in real rates.

SWOT Analysis: Will the Gold/Silver Ratio Narrow Further?
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

The CME reported that it received notice from the Federal Reserve that it is authorized to open an account at the Fed which would “allow it to better safeguard cash deposited by its traders,” writes Dave Kranzler on Goldseek.com. But why is a Fed custodial account any better than one held by a big bank? Is the CME preparing for an eventual Comex default? The ratio of physical gold available for deliver is dwarfed by the size of paper contract claims on such gold.

 news.goldseek.com >> 11 April 2016

SWOT Analysis: Yellen’s Interest Rate Intentions Are Good for Gold
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Gold popped to a one-week high following Federal Reserve minutes that indicated policy makers would remain cautious on raising interest rates, reports Bloomberg. Gold speculators think the precious metal has more room to run too; while gold futures have dipped from a 13-month high, hedge funds are the most bullish in fourteen months as seen in the chart below.

 news.goldseek.com >> 5 April 2016

Gold Had Its Best Quarter in a Generation. So Where Are the Investors?
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

The last time gold had a quarter this strong, Ronald Reagan was a year into his second term as president, the Soviet Union was taking its final gasp and the U.S. was still reeling from the Challenger explosion. In the first quarter, the yellow metal rose 16.5 percent, its best three-month performance since 1986, mostly on fears of negative interest rates and other global central bank policies.

 news.goldseek.com >> 4 April 2016

SWOT Analysis: Is the Bear Market in Gold Over?
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Gold is had its best quarterly rally in 30 years, reports Bloomberg, as demand for haven assets continue to surge. The precious metal got a boost following Janet Yellen’s remarks this week stating that the Federal Reserve will proceed “cautiously” with rate hikes this year. Gold investors have also poured money into gold ETFs at the fastest pace since 2009, with negative rates in Europe boosting its appeal as seen in the chart below.

 news.goldseek.com >> 30 March 2016

Is Economic Growth in Its Final Innings?
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

The start of baseball season is still several days away, but a recent survey conducted by Bank of America Merrill Lynch found that 59 percent of U.S. fund managers believe the current stretch of economic growth is in its “final innings.” This is the highest reading since the financial crisis in 2008.

 news.goldseek.com >> 28 March 2016

SWOT Analysis: By 2020 Germany Wants Half Its Gold Reserves Back
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Germany announced this week that it wants half of its gold reserves back by the year 2020, reports Bloomberg. Bundesbank, the country’s central bank (which has gold in London and New York), has repatriated 1,400 metric tons, or 41.5 percent, of Germany’s gold reserves to Frankfurt.

 news.goldseek.com >> 21 March 2016

SWOT Analysis: Negative Interest Rates Boost Gold Demand Overseas
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Barclays thinks that the rally in commodities is overdone, and although economic data has improved, it is not enough to support current prices. With a fragile global economy still in place, the group believes that a turning point for commodities is still some way away.

 news.goldseek.com >> 14 March 2016

SWOT Analysis: Gold’s Latest Rally Could Have Durability
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

As Lawrie Williams points out however, Goldman’s call to short gold again hasn’t been the investment bank’s best move; it comments in its latest research report that it is down 5 percent on the call – with a stop loss indicated at 7 percent.

 news.goldseek.com >> 2 March 2016

Gold Is Crushing It So Far this Year
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Ironically, though, one of the latest monetary tools—negative interest rates—has been a boon to gold prices. As rates have dropped below zero in Japan, Sweden, Switzerland and elsewhere, and with speculation they could be introduced here in the U.S., many investors have moved into, or increased their exposure to, gold. The metal has historically served as a dependable store of value.

 news.goldseek.com >> 29 February 2016

SWOT Analysis: Gold Experiences First “Golden Cross” In Two Years
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

The best performing precious metal for the week was gold, by a significant margin. Gold experienced its first “golden cross” in two years, as the 50-day moving average moved above the 200-day. This week Georgette Boele from ABN Amro, who switched her gold outlook from bearish to bullish, noted that investors are now buying the metal on dips, rather than selling on rallies as they’ve done previously.

 news.goldseek.com >> 22 February 2016

SWOT Analysis: Gold Holds On as Investors Lose Faith in Central Banks
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Gold’s rally is holding steady as investors are losing faith in central banks’ ability to deal with economic challenges, reports Bloomberg. “If they’re not going to put up U.S. rates as fast as the market had been anticipating, then that’s going to send the U.S. dollar lower, “ David Lennox from Fat Prophets in Sydney said. “That will be beneficial to the gold price.” Inflows into bullion-backed ETPs this year have also topped outflows in all of 2015, as seen in the chart below.

 news.goldseek.com >> 16 February 2016

SWOT Analysis: Central Banks Continue Gobbling Up Gold
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

The Economist calls gold’s surge past $1,200 an ounce this week a “hedge against ignorance,” pointing to question marks hanging over the global economy, some of which include China’s economy, falling oil prices and the fragility of global banks. Even as gold prices fell on Friday, the metal headed for its biggest weekly jump since 2011, reports Bloomberg.

 news.goldseek.com >> 11 February 2016

3 Reasons Why this Gold Rally Is the Real Deal
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

In a recent report, HSBC suggests that we could be in the early stages of a new gold bull market, one that will “probably” usher the yellow metal back up to at least $1,500. This “forthcoming market,” says the bank, “has the potential eventually to exceed the speculative frenzy seen in 2011.”

 news.goldseek.com >> 2 February 2016

Recession on the Horizon? Look at the Big Picture
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Today the Bank of Japan (BoJ) rattled global markets on Friday by announcing its adoption of a negative interest rate policy intended to spur banks to lend and consumers to spend. The world’s third-largest economy, then, joins a handful of European countries who are experimenting with less-than-zero rates, among them Denmark, Austria, Switzerland and Sweden, which I’ve written about previously.

 news.goldseek.com >> 26 October 2015

SWOT Analysis: Investors Are Eyeing Gold Once Again
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Gold got a boost this week as China announced further interest rate cuts and the ECB re-emphasized its pledge to use all the monetary tools at its disposal to support global growth. Furthermore, Russia boosted its gold purchases by the largest amount in a year throughout the month of September, adding 34 tonnes.

 news.goldseek.com >> 25 November 2014

Solar Shines on Silver Demand
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Every solar panel contains between 15 and 20 grams of silver. At today’s prices, that’s about $20 per panel. When silver was hanging out in the mid-$30s range a couple of years ago, it was double that.

 news.goldseek.com >> 24 November 2014

Can You Handle the Stress of Losing 40 Percent in the Market?
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

If the answer to that question is no, we have a solution for your investment woes. Not many investors can handle the stress that comes with losing nearly half of their retirement funds and being forced to wait seven years to break even—only to lose another 40 percent a couple of years later.

 news.goldseek.com >> 28 October 2014

As the Eurozone Stalls, China Cuts the Red Tape
By: Frank Holmes

Consider this: of the 1.35 billion Chinese citizens, about 618 million, nearly half, have access to the Internet. Of those, 302 million, nearly half again, shop online. These numbers will continue to grow, and with them, greater investment opportunity. Name one Western European company that, in recent years, has achieved the sort of success Alibaba, Tencent or Baidu has. Not in a Piketty economy.

 news.goldseek.com >> 4 February 2014

SWOT Analysis: Gold Futures Tumble as Physical Sales in China Rise Ahead of Chinese New Year
By: Frank Holmes, U.S. Global Investors

Comex gold stocks eligible for delivery are at all-time lows, continuing to fall rapidly. J.P. Morgan withdrew a massive 321,500 ounces from its vaults last week, the largest withdrawal of physical gold ever, according to Lawrence Williams of Mineweb. Comex’s last report shows that delivery-eligible inventories are currently sitting at a very modest 70,000 ounces, or 2.2 tonnes. At the rate of current outflows, there will be no physical gold left to back the paper contracts.