news.goldseek.com >> 3 March 2017

The PM Sector "Tips Its Hand"
By: Clive Maund

It is common for commodities to drop in unison, especially metals and oil, and last night we observed that oil looks set to drop hard soon, which was given added significance by the sharp drop in Precious Metals stocks yesterday, that calls time on the recent gold and silver rally that occurred this year to date.

 news.goldseek.com >> 16 January 2017

Broad US Stockmarket update as the Inauguration of Trump Approaches
By: Clive Maund

The election of Donald Trump sparked a rally in the broad stockmarket which has continued up to the present, and according to the laws of reverse (inverse) logic that rule the markets, his inauguration as President is likely to trigger a swoon, and as we will shortly see, there are other compelling technical reasons for the market to drop back soon, and it is worth noting that selling might start kicking in before the inauguration.

 news.goldseek.com >> 19 December 2016

The War on Cash and then on Gold
By: Clive Maund

The global financial system continues to groan under the strain of the accumulated weight of trillions of dollars worth of debt and derivatives, which have built up to even more fantastic levels than those that precipitated the near collapse in 2008, thanks to the policy of solving liquidity problems near-term by creating even more debt and derivatives, Quantitative Easing being the most obvious example. However, while the majority consider the situation to be hopeless, there is actually “light at the end of the tunnel”.

 news.goldseek.com >> 1 December 2016

Trump Makes The US Stock Market Great Again
By: Clive Maund

Conclusion: the market appears to be starting out on another major upleg within the giant parallel uptrend channel shown on the 10-year chart above, on which you will also find a prospective target for this uptrend, that is a long way above current levels. If this interpretation is correct, any short-term reaction will present a buying opportunity.

 news.goldseek.com >> 20 November 2016

Gold Market Update - Probabilities
By: Clive Maund

Charts only ever indicate probabilities, not certainties. At the time of the last update, gold was setting up for another upleg within the uptrend shown on our 1-year chart below, but this was predicated upon the expected Clinton victory, so when Trump won instead, this scenario aborted. Observe how, early on election night, when the markets assumed Clinton would win, gold was up sharply, but by the end of the night it had reversed sharply on heavy turnover, and it went on to break down from the uptrend and head steeply lower towards the important support level shown, which it started to arrive at on Friday.

 news.goldseek.com >> 13 November 2016

Copper calls Gold Bottom on Trumphoria Surge...
By: Clive Maund

Let’s suppose that Trump at least partially goes ahead with his grandiose plans – what does it mean? Well, it means helicopter money, because there’s no other way to pay for it. This could indeed drive the stockmarket higher, which is what last week’s breakout may signify. However, it will also mean inflation, so gold and silver should bottom soon and turn higher. While copper may continue in a bullmarket action in it on Friday indicates temporary burnout, so it should now react.

 news.goldseek.com >> 7 November 2016

Dome Forces US Stock Market Lower
By: Clive Maund

On the 1-year chart all becomes clear, and we see why the market is now dropping away. It is being forced into retreat by the fine, large dome pattern shown now pressing down on it from above—this is what triggered the support failure early this week. Volume has been persistently heavy on this drop, which is bearish, and the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) indicator shows that there is plenty of room for it to drop further. An immediate downside target is the support shown in the 2000 area.

 news.goldseek.com >> 30 October 2016

Gold Market Update - Correction Done?
By: Clive Maund

It now looks like gold’s correction is done and its intermediate base pattern is completing, and if so then we are at an excellent entry point for many better PM stocks, which have been savagely beaten down over the past several months - a necessary correction following their outsized runup earlier in the year. On its 1-year chart we can see that gold’s corrective action from early July has brought it all the way back to its steadily rising 200-day moving average, a classic buy spot, where a potential intermediate base has formed.

 news.goldseek.com >> 9 October 2016

The Growing Threat of a Deflationary Meltdown and a Big Dollar Rally
By: Clive Maund

Last week saw a shocking plunge by gold and silver. While this is being classed in many quarters as part of a corrective phase in force since last July, and possibly the last part, the ferocity of this decline may have deeper implications, which is what we are going to look at here. The sharp break lower by gold may be telegraphing a strong advance by the dollar, and last week, as gold plunged early in the week and continued lower later in the week, the dollar pressed higher and broke above nearby resistance, which might be a prelude to an upside breakout from the 18-month long trading range in the dollar.

 news.goldseek.com >> 3 October 2016

General Commentary including Deutsche Bank, PM's and Recent Trades Review
By: Clive Maund

A major “Sword of Damocles” overhanging global stockmarkets has been the situation with Deutsche Bank, which has a monumental derivative book and whose stock has been plunging to new lows. We have largely ignored this situation up until now, on the assumption that everyone else will until the SHTF, a strategy that has until now paid off. However, we should keep in mind that this is potentially a very dangerous situation that could dwarf the Lehman debacle and send world markets into a tailspin.

 news.goldseek.com >> 19 September 2016

PM Sector Alert Ahead Of Fed - Possible Double Bottom Completing
By: Clive Maund

The purpose of this update is to point out that the PM sector correction may be completing RIGHT NOW, with sector indices at the 2nd low of a potential Double Bottom. Whether it is or not depends on the outcome of next week’s Fed meeting – if they announce a rate hike, then both the broad market and the PM sector can be expected to break sharply lower. If they don’t – if they put it off again till later, or never, then the PM sector should take off higher again. We cannot know in advance whether they will hike or not, but we can be sure that their intentions have already been telegraphed to the 1%, so that they can position themselves to profit in advance.

 news.goldseek.com >> 11 September 2016

PM Sector Downside Target on Market Rout - Strategies...
By: Clive Maund

How should holders of PM stocks handle this correction? Most important of all is realizing first off that it is only a correction, and having an idea of where it is likely to end, as set out here, should help. There are several ways to handle it depending on what type of investor or trader you. One approach is to sell holdings now, assuming the sector doesn’t open heavily down on Monday, with the aim of buying them back when GDX drops into the support zone – this approach risks being left stranded if the sector turns up from here.

 news.goldseek.com >> 5 September 2016

Gold Market Update - Going Off The Rails
By: Clive Maund

Many people are aware that the world is going to Hell, and are feeling very uneasy because they can’t see through the smog of propaganda to precisely why this is happening – after all, with progress and technological advances, life is supposed to get better for more people, right? There are two big reasons that things are going off the rails. One is the abandonment of honest money with the world being set on the road to ruin when Nixon finally finished off the gold standard in 1971.

 news.goldseek.com >> 26 August 2016

The Precious Metals Sector and the Fed
By: Clive Maund

While the Fed is almost powerless these days, as it has succeeded in "painting itself into a corner," the markets still seem to think that its utterances are important and react, sometimes violently, to its apparent stance, or implied stance. For this reason we have to treat Fed statements as important, even though they really aren't. Today we have the Fed making pronouncements and the markets can be expected to gyrate around and react as usual.

 news.goldseek.com >> 15 August 2016

The Dollar Index and Helicopter Money
By: Clive Maund

We have already figured out that, faced with the choice between doing “helicopter money” and allowing a deflationary implosion to occur, those in power will elect the former, because it buys them more time by keeping the system limping along for longer, and we have now arrived at the stage where it will be one or other. The market has already figured it out too, which is why gold and silver have started a new bullmarket.

 news.goldseek.com >> 7 August 2016

Gold Market Update - Correction Imminent
By: Clive Maund

Because it is now “politically incorrect” to be bearish on gold, it makes it more likely that a sizeable correction will occur soon, and there are a number of technical indicators at extremes suggesting that a correction is imminent, which we will look at in this update. We’ll start by looking at gold’s latest charts beginning with the 3-month. On this chart we see that gold made only very limited gains following its Brexit vote surge, and it has just failed at resistance at its early July high, with a sizeable down day on Friday, so that it is now stuck in a rectangular trading range, which could be either a continuation pattern or an intermediate top.

 news.goldseek.com >> 15 July 2016

The Broad Market, Helicopters and Gold
By: Clive Maund

There has been a stunning post Brexit turnaround in the markets. Far from leading to chaos, the markets have taken it in their stride, and are now rising in anticipation of “helicopter money”. Helicopter money is basically unlimited global liquidity intended to head off a liquidity crunch and keep the game going as long as possible – this is the next and ultimate stage in the fiat endgame. The starting point for this is Japan, but it will quickly become global, and legal constraints can simply be brushed aside – if laws prohibit it, they can be changed.

 news.goldseek.com >> 11 July 2016

Gold Market Update - Set To React
By: Clive Maund

Over the longer-term the prospects for both gold and silver are very bright indeed, because of the inexorable global trend towards hyperinflation, driven by the stark reality that there is now no way back for the Keynesian extremists who have created the present shambles. Given the current debt structure, any serious attempt to “apply the brakes” will result in a total implosion and collapse of the system, which will disappear into a neutron star like black hole.

 news.goldseek.com >> 26 June 2016

Elites and Markets Roiled As Britain Rids Itself of the Parasites
By: Clive Maund

Woke up to stunning news this morning – sorry, I don’t stay up watching election results – that Britain has voted by a narrow but clear majority to leave the EU. I had feared that the British electorate would be cowed into submission by the barrage of pro-Europe propaganda and scaremongering, like the Scots were at the time of the Scottish independence referendum, but they weren’t, or at least sufficient of them weren’t to assure a positive result. Nevertheless, 48% still voted to stay in, which shows you how many gullible idiots there are out there – they are either that or in some way they are benefitting from the EU, by getting handouts etc.

 news.goldseek.com >> 23 June 2016

The Brexit Vote and the Markets
By: Clive Maund

With the Brexit vote imminent we can expect to see big volatility in markets immediately following it, and possibly even before it, if the market thinks it has got wind of the outcome ahead of the final count. If Britain votes to leave the European Union, the presumption is that the euro will drop hard, because this would be a big prominent nail in the coffin of the failing Union, and because the dollar index is about 57% comprised of the euro, we can expect it to soar. If Britain votes to stay in, the outcome is less clear, since Britain staying in will not solve the mounting problems of the EU.

 news.goldseek.com >> 19 June 2016

Gold Market Update: short to medium-term outlook deteriorated substantially last week
By: Clive Maund

A final important point is that if the Brexit vote results in Britain leaving the EU, it could potentially unleash a financial tsunami that sees markets crash and gold, silver and other commodities taken down as the dollar soars. It is impossible to say which way this vote will go. The ordinary voting public are being subjected to heavy and relentless and also carefully contrived propaganda by the mainstream media, who are controlled by the elites who are obviously pro the European Union and it remains to be seen whether they can be herded like sheep into voting in the desired manner, as the Scots were, when they succumbed to scaremongering about the consequences of becoming independent.

 news.goldseek.com >> 5 June 2016

OIL update - has the advance finally run out of steam?...
By: Clive Maund

It still looks like oil is topping out here at about the $50 level after its substantial recovery uptrend from its February low. While we cannot be sure until it breaks down from its uptrend, the chances of its doing so soon look high for various reasons. One is that the current intermediate uptrend has been going on for a long time now and has resulted in a persistent overbought condition. Another is that it is quite some way above its 200-day moving average, which although it has turned up, is still only rising gently.

 news.goldseek.com >> 1 May 2016

Gold Market Update - Paradoxical Situation
By: Clive Maund

The situation is paradoxical – gold and silver have broken out upside despite already extreme COT readings, yet the dollar has still not broken down. This setup continues to warrant caution, yet if the dollar should break down from its potential top area and drop hard, gold and silver will go into a vertical meltup – and here we should not forget the tight physical supply situation. In the last update we expected gold and silver to drop due to the COTs extremes, but they have done the opposite resulting in even greater extremes, which in silver’s case are “off the scale”.

 news.goldseek.com >> 18 April 2016

Gold Market Update - COT Horror Story
By: Clive Maund

The latest gold COTs are out and they are an absolute horror story, with Commercial short and Large Spec long positions having ramped up to multi-year extremes, which we can take to mean that the dollar is not going to crash its support in the 93 area and will instead rally. While PM stocks have broken higher, gold has stubbornly refused to and has been dropping back in recent days to complete the Right Shoulder of what is believed to be a Head-and-Shoulders top, as we can see on its 6-month chart below.

 news.goldseek.com >> 3 April 2016

Canadians Switch out of Canadian Dollars into US Dollars Now!!
By: Clive Maund

As a Brit I well understand the deep admiration the Canadians have for their powerful neighbors south of the border, even if it is not always expressed. The good news in this update is that now is the time to “put your money where your mouth is” when it comes to admiring the Yanks, by changing your Canadian dollars immediately into US dollars, the prime reason being that the Canadian looks set to drop after a big rally from mid-January, while the US dollar looks set to surprise by rallying away from the danger zone of the support around 93 on the dollar index.

 news.goldseek.com >> 21 March 2016

Gold Market Update - Dollar Soon to Turn Up
By: Clive Maund

The conclusion therefore is that the dollar is going to turn up here, or very soon, and that commodities are going to get smacked back down again, especially copper, gold and silver, and oil. Gold in particular is very vulnerable after it recent frothiness and wild excitement among goldbugs.

 news.goldseek.com >> 14 March 2016

Gold and Silver COT Update - Get 30,000 Coffins Ready...
By: Clive Maund

Conclusion: gold and silver Commercial shorts are at “nosebleed” levels calling for a smash soon, which might be precipitated by the Fed next week. Copper, after looking bullish for weeks, suddenly looks vulnerable, with Commercials rapidly liquidating nearly all their remaining longs. The broad stockmarket COTs are ever more bullish, suggesting that the Small Specs, who have been piling on the shorts, are going to be slaughtered. Oh, and by the way, my mistake, 40,000 coffins.

 news.goldseek.com >> 6 March 2016

PM Sector update - Not a Flag or Pennant But a Top - New Longs About To Be Fleeced
By: Clive Maund

Many analysts and writers have described the pattern forming in the past couple of weeks in gold as a “bull Flag or Pennant” with some appearing to be “playing to the gallery” – i.e. telling their audience what they want to hear, which is that gold will continue to go up. I, on the other hand, decided that the triangle that had formed was not a continuation pattern, but a top, and said so about a week ago. So, as you will readily understand, I was not looking good when gold seemingly broke out upside on Thursday, and came in for considerable flak. However, on Friday there were some dramatic developments across the sector which look set to vindicate my stance.

 news.goldseek.com >> 28 February 2016

Silver breaks Lower - Gold and PM Stocks Set to Plunge
By: Clive Maund

In the latest Gold and Silver Market updates, posted last weekend, the view was expressed that an intermediate top was forming gold and silver, not a bull Flag as some were suggesting, and the latest COT data not only confirms this view, but suggests that a severe drop is imminent, and it already started in silver on Friday. Fortunately we exited most of our long positions in the sector, many at a handsome profit, over the past 2 weeks, having spotted the danger.

 news.goldseek.com >> 21 February 2016

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

We have been wondering over the past week whether gold and silver have been starting to mark out bull Flags or whether they are instead at intermediate tops. That question is answered for us by the latest COTs which reveal that Commercial short positions have exploded in recent weeks, particularly in silver, where they are now at “nosebleed levels”. We therefore now expect a correction, which could be quite heavy – so Curb your Enthusiasm, people. When it happens don’t be fooled into thinking that the bearmarket is back on and Goldman is right. Instead take the opportunity to back up the truck and load up on PM sectors investments, many of which have risen too far too fast in recent weeks.

 news.goldseek.com >> 7 February 2016

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

Conclusion: the outlook for gold is brightening rapidly. Many observers are expecting it to do now what it has always done in recent years, when it has risen up to challenge its falling moving averages near to the top of its major downtrend channel, which is to do an about face and drop back down again, probably to new lows. This time however there is good chance that it will break out of its downtrend and possibly go into “meltup” mode, along with silver and Precious Metals stocks – especially PM stocks, which are horribly undervalued.

 news.goldseek.com >> 1 February 2016

Elites set to wipe out shorts before next downwave
By: Clive Maund

The recovery rally in the US stockmarket that we have been expecting for a week or two started on Friday with a robust advance that gathered strength into the close. The trigger was Japan’s announcement that it is going into NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy) in a big way, which means that as they slip deeper into the abyss of bankruptcy they are going to resort to robbing savers. This is real “endgame stuff” – another milestone on the road to ruin, and it looks like it was the result of the Japanese attendees at Davos being taken to one side and given their “marching orders”.

 news.goldseek.com >> 29 January 2016

The Curious Case of Copper
By: Clive Maund

I recently watched a movie called The Curious Case of Benjamin Button which some of you may have seen. In this film the lead role, played by Brad Pitt, is born as a decrepit old man and gets steadily younger until he eventually died of old age as a baby. To say that it’s ridiculous is the understatement of the millennium. Yet many people come away from watching this film thinking “How wonderful, if we all kept getting younger!” As a contrarian I instead found myself wondering about the catastrophic effect on the cosmetics industry, as the market for anti-aging creams would collapse.

 news.goldseek.com >> 24 January 2016

Charting the Crash - How Far Will The Bounce Get?
By: Clive Maund

Last week the market plunged to arrive at the last ditch support level in the 1800 – 1850 zone on the SPX500 index that we had earlier defined as marking the lower boundary of the giant Head-and-Shoulders top. Once this level is breached, the full-on crash starts. Because it arrived at this support level in an even more oversold state than it was at the depths of the plunge last August, and because Smart Money has become bullish, it made it unlikely that it would break down and crash just yet, and sure enough the market has started to bounce, which means that the danger has probably abated, for now.

 news.goldseek.com >> 10 January 2016

Market Crash – Last Week Was The 2nd And Final Warning
By: Clive Maund

Many were talking about the market crashing last week and the mainstream financial press were waxing hysterical, but as we will now see the crash hasn’t even started yet. If the press got like that last week, imagine what they will be like when it really does crash – last week was just a “warmup”, the 2nd and final warning, the 1st warning was the plunge last August.

 news.goldseek.com >> 4 January 2016

The Incredible Commodities - Stocks Divergence and What It Portends
By: Clive Maund

As we approach the end of the year we are going to review one of the most extraordinary divergences that we have witnessed in modern times. This is very important because once you grasp the magnitude of this divergence and what it implies, you will be able to position yourself to firstly avoid harm and secondly capitalize on a reversion to the mean of this divergence, which, because it is so extreme, looks inevitable.

 news.goldseek.com >> 20 December 2015

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

Gold’s technical picture is actually little changed from the last update posted on the 6th, apart from its having made marginal new lows late last week. What has changed is that we have since seen the Fed raise interest rates for the first time in many years, and the Junk Bond market has started to seriously fall apart.

 news.goldseek.com >> 13 December 2015

The Great Train Wreck of 2016
By: Clive Maund

Today we are going to review irrefutable evidence that a slow motion train wreck is already well underway across global markets, that will end with the last wagons on the train, the SPX500 index and the Dow Jones Industrials, disappearing into the abyss right after their immediate predecessors.

 news.goldseek.com >> 6 December 2015

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

Conclusion: gold broke out convincingly on Friday to start an intermediate uptrend that will result in worthwhile gains from here for a wide range of investments across the sector. While the bearmarket may reassert itself later, latest gold COTs are so bullish that we may have seen the final low – it may be over. We will know if it succeeds in breaking out of the Falling Wedge shown on the 7-year chart.

 news.goldseek.com >> 2 December 2015

Latest Gold COTs Most Bullish For 14 Years, And Call for a Sizeable Tradeable Rally Soon
By: Clive Maund

There is no need to mince words or beat around the bush with this update. The latest COTs for gold released yesterday showed another marked improvement so that they are now strongly and unequivocally bullish – in fact they are at their most positive since late 2001, that’s 14 years. We are not going to waste our time trying to figure out the reason or reasons for this, but possibly this situation suggests that the Fed is not going to raise rates this month as widely expected. If they don’t, the dollar, which has wafted back to its highs on this expectation, will drop and the PM sector will rally.

 news.goldseek.com >> 22 November 2015

PM Sector Big Green Light and Low Risk Entry Setup
By: Clive Maund

Logically, one would expect massive expansion or growth in the factors listed above to be bullish for gold and silver, which should hold their value in real terms, and many PM sector investors banking on such logic have as we know been ruined, so why have gold and silver dropped for 4 years now? The reason is that they have been abandoned by hot money pursuing speculative bubbles that, on opportunity cost grounds, have proved to be more fertile territory for amassing speculative gains than gold and silver. Given that the underlying bullish factors for gold and money have not disappeared over the past 4 years, and on the contrary have actually intensified, it should be clear that what has been labeled a bearmarket in gold and silver is actually a gigantic correction within an ongoing epochal bullmarket.

 news.goldseek.com >> 8 November 2015

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

The predictions made in the recent past for the dollar to rally and gold and silver to drop have proven to be correct. Gold has now dropped for 8 days in a row as we can see on its 3-month chart below, which common sense dictates is increasing the chances of a bounce soon, especially as Commercial short positions eased significantly last week and gold is arriving at a support level in an oversold condition. Gold is oversold relative to its moving averages, which are in bearish alignment.

 news.goldseek.com >> 1 November 2015

Why the Super Bearish PM COTs Portend a Plunging Euro
By: Clive Maund

It was ironic that when Dr Watson complained to his companion Sherlock Homes that he had a stomach ache, Holmes clarified the situation at once by saying “Alimentary, my dear Watson”. More generally, the legendary sleuth of Victorian London would make light of his accomplishments after solving cases that baffled the police, by remarking “Elementary, my dear Watson”. Doubtless this expression was deeply irritating to his arch-enemy Moriarty.

 news.goldseek.com >> 18 October 2015

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

Gold’s cheerleaders are at it again, jumping up and down with excitement as they proclaim the birth of a new bullmarket, and herding their flocks into the sector, when they have barely recovered from the last fleecing. There are 3 factors that we are going to look at which suggest that this latest rally is just another false dawn. One is the unbroken downtrends in gold and silver, the next is the unfavorable alignment of their moving averages, and finally their latest COTs, which call for caution – especially silver’s which is downright bearish.

 news.goldseek.com >> 5 October 2015

Fiat Endgame - More QE, NIRP, Bail-Ins and Pensions Plunder
By: Clive Maund

What all this implies then is that gold is either at or very close to a major bottom here, and furthermore if this is the case, then the Precious Metals sector, which is now extraordinarily undervalued relative to gold, has huge upside potential from its current dismally low levels. This is a reason that we went for the sector on Thursday when it was hard down on an important support level affording a low risk entry setup, and we will be devoting more and more attention to it on the site going forward.

 news.goldseek.com >> 29 September 2015

Junk Bond Market Imminent Collapse Threatens (Unwelcome) Big Rate Rises
By: Clive Maund

Everyone is so focused on looking at the Fed and whether or not it decides to raise rates by a puny 0.25%, that they are completely overlooking the fact that it is the market’s role to set interest rates, and if the Fed is not up to the job, then the markets will eventually take over and do it in a manner that is likely to involve rises vastly greater than a mere 0.25%, which given the current fragile and extremely unstable debt structure, can be expected to have catastrophic consequences.

 news.goldseek.com >> 20 September 2015

S&P500 Index Update - End Run Smash Looks Imminent
By: Clive Maund

The market didn’t waste any time “getting on with it” yesterday after the bearish action on the day of the Fed announcement. It fell, and hard. We are going to look at this carefully because what appears to be starting is a devastating “end run around the line” smash – if so a brutal plunge is just around the corner.

 news.goldseek.com >> 18 September 2015

After the long dark night, the Sun starts to rise on Commodities
By: Clive Maund

Commodities and Emerging Markets have been crushed over the past 15 months by the dollar’s strong rally. It therefore follows that if the dollar starts down again, they are going to rally, and this will happen regardless of the state of economies. The dollar should start down again if the Fed fails to raise interest rates tomorrow, and maybe even if they do, as the ensuing chain of interest rate rises cannot extend far because of the magnitude of debt.

 news.goldseek.com >> 13 September 2015

PM Sector Very Low Risk Rading Setup at Possible Sector Bottom
By: Clive Maund

It looks like we are really going to see some fireworks late this coming week, right after the Fed make their much anticipated announcement about whether or not they will raise interest rates. They had better get on with it and do their miniscule rate rise this time, because if they don’t and start making bleating noises again about doing it at some point in the future, their already tenuous credibility will vanish.

 news.goldseek.com >> 7 September 2015

Bulls set to be Tasered again by Imminent Severe Downleg
By: Clive Maund

The stockmarket is toxic! It’s very important that you don’t get seduced by the old siren song of Wall St about “buying the dip” and other nonsense like “being selective”. While these strategies have worked up to now, they won’t any longer, because we are now in a bearmarket, and furthermore it looks like we are on the verge of another plunge.

 news.goldseek.com >> 30 August 2015

Red Alert for 2nd Crash Downwave
By: Clive Maund

We are believed to be at an excellent juncture right now to short the broad stockmarket (or buy bear ETFs and Puts). As we know, we did just that before the dramatic plunge early last week, and are now “sitting pretty”. Now is the time to add to positions, or if you haven’t any and are looking for the right shorting opportunity, this is it.

 news.goldseek.com >> 26 August 2015

China Shanghai Composite Update
By: Clive Maund

The Chinese market is of interest to us not because we necessarily want to trade it, but because of its effect on other world markets. Its heavy drop on Monday morning contributed to the rout on Wall St later in the day. The Chinese economy is a massive Ponzi scheme that is threatening to implode, with grave implications for the world economy.

 news.goldseek.com >> 23 August 2015

Black Monday...
By: Clive Maund

We are now in the “full on” market crash phase predicted and earlier prepared for on clivemaund.com many weeks in advance – it comes as no surprise to us whatsoever. The purpose of this update is to consider what is likely to happen over the next few days and especially tomorrow, Monday. When a market tips into a crash on a Friday, what typically happens is that the thousands or even millions of investors who believed the mainstream media and didn’t see it coming spend the weekend “stewing” over their investments – and many of them decide to bail out come Monday.

 news.goldseek.com >> 21 August 2015

Full On Crash Alert For Major World Markets...
By: Clive Maund

There are various reasons, both fundamental and technical, to believe that a market crash is almost upon us. This crash will affect virtually all world markets, including and especially the big Western Markets which have thus far escaped the devastation already afflicting the developing markets. Here we are going to focus on US markets, but they will all get taken down – European markets including the UK, and Far Eastern markets such as Hong Kong and Japan.

 news.goldseek.com >> 18 August 2015

Junk Bonds Call For Market Crash...
By: Clive Maund

We have looked at plenty enough evidence in recent weeks that a crash is looming for US markets, and now we are going to take a look at another important piece of evidence that we haven’t previously considered – the Junk Bond market. When confidence deteriorates Junk Bonds get sold off. A reason for this is that Junk Bond Holders are low on the list of creditors who can expect to be paid off in the event of corporate default, hence the name. They yield more because they carry more risk, so when risk threatens to rise or rises, savvy holders want out.

 news.goldseek.com >> 17 August 2015

Why The PM Sector Is Now A Contrarian’s Dream
By: Clive Maund

In this update we are only going to look at one chart, because I don’t want to dilute its impact by including anything else. There are many other charts supportive of a positive outlook for the Precious Metals sector going forward, which we will look at separately.

 news.goldseek.com >> 9 August 2015

The NASDAQ's Days Are Numbered Too...
By: Clive Maund

When you attend the funeral of a dearly departed friend or relative it is appropriate to show due respect by wearing black. Similarly, in this update on the Tech Sector, which will very soon be on its deathbed, it is appropriate that we show due propriety and respect for the seriousness of the situation by presenting our analysis on somber black charts.

 news.goldseek.com >> 2 August 2015

Preparing for the Crash - S&P500 index analysis - INVERSE ETFs & PUTS TIMING...
By: Clive Maund

In this update on the broad market S&P500 index we are going to look at no less than 5 charts for it, covering different timeframes, the reason for this is that there are different points to make on each of these charts. Before looking at the charts for the S&P500 index we are going to review first a range of charts, including the latest charts for Margin Debt and NYSE available cash. These charts provide the direst warning imaginable of impending trouble.

 news.goldseek.com >> 26 July 2015

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

Gold cracked support and plunged to new lows since the last update, which came as no surprise to us. So what now? We are seeing signs that a recovery rally is about to begin, but it probably won’t get all that far before a new downleg gets underway that sees gold make new lows again. It’s not just gold prices that are suffering – the entire commodity complex is in ragged retreat, with steep falls also in copper and oil. Why is this? The reason is that the gathering forces of deflation are starting to wreak havoc, and they are not going to be stopped by more QE – even if they print another $10 trillion to throw at the problem.

 news.goldseek.com >> 20 July 2015

The Big Deflationary Downwave Quick Reference Guide...
By: Clive Maund

We are believed to be on the verge of another deflationary downwave, similar to or more severe than the one which drove the dollar spike – and commodity slump – between July of last year and March, and caused by an intensification of the debt crisis, with increasing capital flight out of Europe and into dollar assets as the EU crumbles. More QE will not save the situation, as it is already discredited and will have no more effect than trying to inflate a tire or rubber boat that has a big hole in it.

 news.goldseek.com >> 14 July 2015

The Humiliation and Subjugation of Greece
By: Clive Maund

Europe is a fascinating place, but not as interesting as it was before the European Union came into existence. Older travellers may recall the fun of going from one European country to another, with each having its own currency and banknotes which you could scrutinize with interest as you relaxed at various cafes or restaurants. The national stereotypes could still easily be found – Frenchmen on bicycles dressed in blue and white striped shirts and black berets pedaling around selling strings of onions, and refusing to speak English on principle even when they understood it, or spending their time productively on four hour lunches or womanizing.

 news.goldseek.com >> 12 July 2015

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

The situation is paradoxical – the charts of just about everything are positioned for a plunge – or a turnaround and limited recovery, which reflects the fact that markets are waiting on some sort of resolution of the standoff with Greece, either Greece walking away, a Grexit, or a fudge solution where Greece accepts defeat and is denied debt relief or it is obfuscated sufficiently for the markets to buy it and this may involve another “can kicking” exercise. While the charts for many commodities look scary, including gold and silver, their COTs now look bullish, which suggests that the fudge solution will be the outcome.

 news.goldseek.com >> 9 July 2015

China Crisis - Hyperoversold Condition Calls for Bounce - Target...
By: Clive Maund

It’s a shame more Chinese investors didn’t get to read our timely warning of an impending mega-smash in the Chinese stockmarket – it would have been worth the cost of a subscription TO AVOID LOSING THEIR LIFE’S SAVINGS. It was mentioned as an aside yesterday’s update on the oil sector, in which we took huge profits in United States Oil Fund Puts, that the Chinese market was massively oversold and now exhibiting extreme technical compression and thus starting to look attractive for a rebound, and we will now proceed to see exactly why that is on the charts for the Shanghai Composite Index.

 news.goldseek.com >> 5 July 2015

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

Conclusion: gold and silver look like they are consolidating within their downtrends ahead of another sharp drop, which is expected to synchronize with another dollar upleg. Over the longer-term, and contrary to general expectations, a mega bullmarket is expected to be ignited by a new cycle of rising rates, as in the late 70’s, which will devastate the inflated bond and stockmarkets.

 news.goldseek.com >> 28 June 2015

China Crackup - The Final Trap Looms...
By: Clive Maund

What was predicted for China has started to happen with the dramatic failure of its parabolic uptrend just over a week ago leading to a plunge. The update China Crash was posted when all indicators were at “nosebleed” levels late in April, right after which the third steepest fanline shown on our 1-year chart for the Shanghai Composite Index below was breached. Somewhat amazingly, that overbought peak late in April was not the final top – it rose even higher into early-mid June, but after that, just over a week ago, it finally broke below the parabola and started to cave in.

 news.goldseek.com >> 15 June 2015

Bond Bombshell...
By: Clive Maund

DEFLATION RULES! – because periodic recessions, necessary to rebalance the economy after periods of growth, cannot be put off forever by the short-term expedient of printing money. The result of such corrupt and evasive practices is that the deflationary forces build up to catastrophic and overwhelming proportions leading to economic collapse and depression. This is the point that we have arrived at now. Why can’t governments keep the game going indefinitely by printing more and more money?

 news.goldseek.com >> 9 June 2015

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

Although the longer-term bullish case for gold could scarcely be stronger, over the short to medium-term the picture continues weak, with it looking vulnerable to breaking down into another downleg to the $1000 area and perhaps lower. In the last update you may recall that there was some optimism expressed that it might perk up on the dollar topping out, but such has not proved to be the case – instead it has performed miserably and now looks set to drop more steeply to new lows.

 news.goldseek.com >> 4 May 2015

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

Conclusion: the long mid-bullmarket correction in force from the 2011 highs is approaching or at its conclusion, although gold could drop to $1000 before it’s done. However further losses are looking less likely as the dollar has broken down from its parabolic uptrend and is vulnerable to a severe decline, after a short-term rally to relieve the current oversold condition. The long-term outlook for gold and silver is a massive parabolic ramp similar to, but much greater in magnitude to that which occurred in the 1970’s, taking gold eventually to $5000 or higher.

 news.goldseek.com >> 17 April 2015

US Stock Markets Update – Getting Scarier By The Day…
By: Clive Maund

The Fed has been goosing the market for years now with QE and heavy intervention every time it looks like it’s going to drop at the behest of their masters on Wall St, creating massive distortions, which means that if they lose control for whatever reason this whole thing will blow up in their faces. The biggest threat to this enormous Ponzi scheme will be a self-feeding dollar collapse involving a reversal of capital flows, that only a significant rise in rates could halt. The closing up of the giant bearish Rising Wedge shows that we could be very close to this happening.

 news.goldseek.com >> 12 April 2015

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

Although gold has rallied as expected in the last update, the advance has been modest and now it appears to be weakening again, and with its latest COTs showing a marked deterioration and the dollar maintaining its parabolic acceleration, it looks set to drop back along with silver. The long-term uptrend remains down.

 news.goldseek.com >> 22 March 2015

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

The immediate outlook for gold has improved dramatically following the dollar’s topping action of recent days after the Fed was rumbled, and the vast improvement in the COT structure of the past 2 weeks. While the negative outlook set out in the last update could yet come to pass in the event of a deflationary implosion – and remains a risk until gold breaks out of the downtrend shown here on our 8-year chart – latest COTs certainly suggest that the risk has been averted for now.

 news.goldseek.com >> 9 March 2015

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

Gold did almost exactly what we expected in the last update, it bounced from oversold off the support at $1190 - $1200, only to break sharply to new lows on Friday, crushed by the strength of the dollar. We got with the plot and are doing fine with bear ETFs, one of which rose by 22% on Friday alone. The dollar is remarkably strong especially given that its COTs and sentiment readings are already bearish by normal standards, so what is going on? - and where is the dollar headed?

 news.goldseek.com >> 6 March 2015

Preparing for the Crash as Earnings Crumble and Buybacks Exhaust Themselves
By: Clive Maund

As you know I am primarily a chart analyst, so when I come across fundamental analysis that really gets to the bottom of what is going on I like to share it with you. It is of the utmost importance that such analysis and the info therein is either not known to the market at large or its significance is not appreciated – by the time most fundamental information becomes known it is too late – it has already been factored into prices, which is a big reason for using charts.

 news.goldseek.com >> 23 February 2015

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

Conclusion: although a short-term bounce looks likely for the sector as it is oversold on short-term oscillators, medium-term a potentially quite sharp drop looks likely, that could even take gold to new lows. There is some danger of a destructive final C-wave that takes the gold price down to finally bottom in the zone of strong support in the $900 - $1000.

 news.goldseek.com >> 3 February 2015

THE GOLDEN AGE OF QE and the FIAT ENDGAME...
By: Clive Maund

As you are doubtless aware we are living in a new paradigm – the age of global QE has arrived. Amongst the major power blocs it started with the US, spread to Japan, which adopted it with a particular gusto, after suffering from deflation for decades, and just has been taken up by Europe in a big way, after waiting for half its young people in many constituent countries to become unemployed due to the ravages of deflation. Smaller countries will have to join in or their currencies will soar and they will become uncompetitive.

 news.goldseek.com >> 19 January 2015

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

Nothing has been done to address the structural inadequecies and distortions that lead to the 2008 financial crisis – instead our leaders have resorted to the procrastination made possible by turning to drugs, specifically Quantitative Easing, which has enabled them to clamp interest rates at 0 to prevent the already unserviceable debt load from compounding out of sight. Spearheaded by the US, this money printing policy has now become standard practice around the world, with Europe and Japan following suit in a big way.

 news.goldseek.com >> 30 December 2014

IT COULD NOT LOOK BETTER FOR THE PM SECTOR GOING INTO 2015...
By: Clive Maund

In this article we are going to look at compelling evidence that the Precious Metals sector is either at or very close to a major bottom, and see why the chances are high that the sector will rally strongly in the New Year. You have all heard the old adages about “buying low and selling high” and how the time to buy is when there is “blood running in the streets”. Never have these adages been more applicable than they are now to the Precious Metals sector, where even the most diehard bulls have had enough and thrown in the towel.

 news.goldseek.com >> 15 December 2014

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

If we lived in a normal word of fiscal propriety, the falling oil price would be viewed as something to celebrate, as it reduces costs across the board, and should theoretically boost the economy, but we live in an abnormal debt-wracked world where instead fears are surfacing that the plunging oil price will trigger a series of cascading loan defaults that have the potential to collapse the system – already world stockmarkets are buckling.

 news.goldseek.com >> 3 December 2014

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

Yesterday was an extraordinary day in the Precious Metals markets, with a good chance that it signals the reversal from the brutal 3-year plus bearmarket that so many have waited so long to see. The day started with gold and silver plunging on the news that the Swiss voted against backing their currency with gold, but later in the day they rallied strongly on heavy turnover to close with giant reversal candlesticks on their charts. Regardless of the reasons for this bizarre behavior, technically this action looks very positive, and this is written with the awareness that gold has reacted back this morning on dollar strength.

 news.goldseek.com >> 2 November 2014

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

Gold finally crashed key support at last year’s lows on Friday, which was a very bearish development that has opened up the prospect of an immediate severe decline at least to the strong support in the $1,000 area. Such a decline will have grave consequences for the Precious Metals mining industry, whose costs have risen sharply in recent years, and is expected to lead to a massive wave of company failures, as many who have been “hanging on by their fingernails” finally lose the fight and disappear over the cliff.

 news.goldseek.com >> 2 October 2014

HONG KONG - the Western Elites get to work on CHINA'S "ACHILLES HEEL"...
By: Clive Maund

Hong Kong, which was returned to China by Britain after the expiration of a 99-year lease, has long been regarded as a sort of capitalist jewel in China’s crown, but now it seems to be becoming a “thorn in its side”. One has to wonder why, after 17 years, the students of Hong Kong have suddenly decided to confront the Chinese government over the issue of democracy. They have made it plain that they are not prepared to accept the dictates of central government – and the general law of the land in which they live.

 news.goldseek.com >> 29 September 2014

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

Some of you may remember those gold ingot vending machines that started to pop up at airports and other places several years ago, which were of course a sign of a top. If they are still there they have probably been reconfigured to dispense cans of coke and candy, and if so it’s a positive sign for gold.

 news.goldseek.com >> 18 September 2014

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

The Pope just observed that the situation in the world today amounts to a Third World War – he’s right and although he didn’t point the finger, we know what it’s all about – the maintenance and imposition of the dollar as the dominant world currency, by diplomacy or by force as deemed necessary. We will come to these geopolitical considerations later as they of course have huge implications for the dollar and thus for Precious Metals.

 news.goldseek.com >> 2 September 2014

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

Gold and silver are at a critical juncture – either they break down to new lows soon or a major new uptrend is about to start. Which is it? – while we cannot be 100% sure either way, we can certainly attempt to figure which way they are likely to break.

 news.goldseek.com >> 26 August 2014

Will the US succeed in breaking Russia to maintain dollar hegemony?...
By: Clive Maund

In Why they are making an enemy of Russia? we looked at two of the key reasons why the US is making an enemy of Russia, namely the promotion of conflict by the powerful Defense industry lobby in order to keep its order books full, and the value of conjuring up an external enemy as a hate figure for the masses, in order to take the heat off the government. In this article we are going to look at what is arguably an even bigger reason, that was largely omitted in the earlier article, which is that Russia, in alliance with China, is threatening to bring an end to the dollar as the global reserve currency, which would mean the end of the American empire.

 news.goldseek.com >> 3 August 2014

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

We called the exact top in gold to the day in the last update 3 weeks ago, as it has since reacted back. Now the picture is more messy, with conflicting indications, but let’s see what we can make of it. There was no update for these 3 weeks as we were waiting for this decline to run its course (no point in working for the sake of it).

 news.goldseek.com >> 13 July 2014

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

Whilst acknowledging that “this time it could be different” we have no choice but to call gold and silver lower on the basis of their latest extraordinary COT charts, which reveal that the normally wrong Large specs are already “betting the farm” on this rally. Let’s start by looking at the latest 6-month chart for gold. On this chart we can see that following its big up day in mid-June gold has only managed to creep about $20 higher.

 news.goldseek.com >> 29 June 2014

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

The latest COTs are indicating another false start for the Precious Metals sector. There was a very big jump in Commercial short positions in gold last week, but an astounding jump in Commercial short positions in silver, that is believed to be unprecedented. With both already at a high level as a result, it looks like we are in for a rerun of what happened after mid-March.

 news.goldseek.com >> 19 June 2014

GDXJ Signals that MAJOR BREAKOUT and STRONG PM SECTOR ADVANCE IMMINENT...
By: Clive Maund

Most investors or would-be investors in Precious Metals stocks are so soured by the seemingly interminable bearmarket in the sector, that has gone on for 3 years now and been made even worse by its having unfolded against the background of a rising stockmarket, that they won’t see the major opportunity now being presented, even when it’s as plain as the nose on your face, which it is. This is a bit sad really, because huge profits look set to be reaped by those buying the sector now.

 news.goldseek.com >> 9 June 2014

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

On the 14-year log chart the retreat from the 2011 highs still looks like a correction within an ongoing major uptrend – which is not an unreasonable interpretation given that they have not stopped printing money. Gold looks like it has been basing over the past year above its long-term uptrend line, and at this point it looks like the support level at last year’s lows at about $1180 will hold, although there are reasons why we could see near-term weakness towards this support that we will consider shortly.

 news.goldseek.com >> 28 April 2014

GOLD and the UKRAINE...
By: Clive Maund

In this article we are going to look at what is going on in the Ukraine, because it has major implications well beyond its borders, and could have a significant impact on the price of gold and silver. We will examine this situation in a calm, detached and objective manner, as if we were visitors from another planet with no bias or stake in any outcome.

 news.goldseek.com >> 21 April 2014

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

In the context of the magnitude of the rally from the December lows that preceded it, gold’s reaction from its March highs, see 1-year chart below, seems like a reasonable correction, although there have been some factors indicating that this is not a normal healthy reaction, such as the high downside volume, particularly in stocks.

 news.goldseek.com >> 16 March 2014

Monster Silver Rally Brewing
By: Clive Maund

On silver’s 1-year chart we can see that a fine large Double Bottom is completing. We already had the breakout on good volume from the 2nd trough of this Double Bottom in the middle of February, and it was this event that has (rightly) caused traders to pile into silver, although the price hasn’t moved much – yet. The better silver stocks, on the other hand, are already on fire, because the “writing is on the wall”. Right now the price is consolidating following the breakout in a fine tight Flag formation, from which upside breakout looks imminent.

 news.goldseek.com >> 24 February 2014

GDXJ Signals Imminent Breakout into Major PM Sector Uptrend
By: Clive Maund

A lot of investors are going to miss out on the huge bullmarket advance in the Precious Metals sector that is just starting as this is written, because they are frightened of the impact of the broad market on the sector, but as we will see, the sector itself is signaling that it is going up, big time.

 news.goldseek.com >> 16 February 2014

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

Gold broke out decisively last week from its downtrend dating back to last August, a development that was confirmed by a dramatic high volume breakout by silver on Friday. On its 8-month chart we can see that gold broke out both from its downtrend and also from a Head-and-Shoulders bottom. It even managed to close above its 200-day moving average on Friday, although the fact that this average is still falling coupled with an overbought reading on its RSI indicator may lead to gold consolidating a little before it makes further gains.

 news.goldseek.com >> 2 February 2014

Precious Metals Sector New Uptrend - Juniors to Lead the Charge
By: Clive Maund

We sold our Precious Metals sector holdings on Monday 27th January, which we had bought just a few weeks earlier, in order to sidestep a possible reaction. The reason for this was that both gold and silver had arrived at important trendline resistance and some of our juniors had become critically overbought after strong gains. Were we correct to sell at that point, in view of the building major uptrend across the sector?

 news.goldseek.com >> 26 January 2014

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

Gold’s technical picture has improved since the last bullish update just over a month ago, but it has still not broken out the intermediate downtrend that started back last August, which we can see drawn on the 8-month chart shown below.