news.goldseek.com >> 5 November 2009
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news.goldseek.com >> 5 November 2009 |
The Case For Juniors
By: Clive Maund
This article has been provoked by a reader who told me he wasn't interested in my site because it is weighted towards "penny stocks" which he considers as "being suitable only for gamblers". The purpose of this article is to sweep away misconceptions and to make crystal clear the enormous advantage of intelligent penny stock investing over normal "respectable" investing in higher priced stocks.
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news.goldseek.com >> 26 October 2009 |
DOLLAR ALERT - REVENGE of the GREENBACK...
By: Clive Maund
The dollar is at a crossroads and there are two probable scenarios. One is a final plunge following the recent grinding decline to an intermediate low that is followed by an intermediate reversal. The other is that it suddenly breaks out upside from the severe downtrend it has been stuck in since early March and rallies strongly, strongly because it is likely to be juiced by a sudden wave of panic short-covering.
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news.goldseek.com >> 6 October 2009 |
GOLD: BREAKOUT ALERT - POWERFUL UPTREND IMMINENT - target and trajectory...
By: Clive Maund
The impending gold breakout has been so long in the making that it has engendered a "we'll believe it when we see it" mentality amongst most market participants. What this means of course is that most will miss out on the big easy gains that will accrue during the dynamic phase of the next major uptrend and will turn up late at the party, as usual. We ourselves have had lingering doubts engendered in large part by the perceived risk of a dollar rally, but these doubts are now dissipating for reasons that will be set below.
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news.goldseek.com >> 5 October 2009 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Gold is behaving well technically and is, thus far, on course to break out to new highs soon. On its 3-year chart we can see how the upside breakout from the Triangle led to a run at the highs, where it stalled out and reversed as it arrived near the highs in an overbought condition and with its COT figures at an extreme level.
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news.goldseek.com >> 25 September 2009 |
DEATH of the AMERICAN EMPIRE...
By: Clive Maund
The general public, who never understood the global financial crisis in the first place, have been hoodwinked into thinking it’s over. It’s not. None of the underlying structural abnormalities, distortions and excesses within the global financial system have been addressed and rectified, because to do so in a meaningful way would involve allowing a constructive depression to purge the system of dross and parasitic elements (like much of government itself) in what would amount to a teardown and rebuild.
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news.goldseek.com >> 21 September 2009 |
GOLD AT THE CROSSROADS - analysis with reference to dollar and COT...
By: Clive Maund
In this article we are going to review in a dispassionate manner what gold has and hasn’t achieved in recent weeks and make deductions about the outlook. September is by far the strongest month for gold on a seasonal basis and this year has been no exception.
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news.goldseek.com >> 13 September 2009 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Investors will much more readily forgive a market commentator who is bullish and wrong than one who is bearish and wrong. This explains why, with gold tantalizingly close to breaking out to new highs, bearish or cautious articles on the yellow metal are few and far between.
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news.goldseek.com >> 8 September 2009 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Gold has broken out of its large Symmetrical Triangle to the upside, and is now in position for "the big one" - the breakout above the wall of resistance approaching last year's highs in the $1030 area. However, those who are expecting it to accomplish this immediately are likely to be disappointed as its short-term overbought status and especially silver's critically overbought condition and very high Commercial short position are pointing to an imminent reaction, although this reaction should present a great buying opportunity ahead of the major breakout.
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news.goldseek.com >> 23 August 2009 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
UPSIDE BREAKOUT ALERT: gold is now believed to be very close to an upside breakout to new highs, a development that should lead to a rapid advance towards the $1300 area, and it should be noted that this scenario will not be negated by a brief sharp drop that may be aimed at wrong-footing a lot of traders.
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news.goldseek.com >> 17 August 2009 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Gold's bulls and bears have fought each other to a standstill so that an eerie calm now exists in the gold market, rather like the period in Europe known as the Phony War which was an early stage of the 2nd World War, where despite having declared war on each other, the major powers did not engage in significant military operations. Just as this phase was the "calm before the storm" it is clear from an examination of the gold chart that this time of tranquillity is about to end - that much we can be fairly sure about.
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news.goldseek.com >> 9 August 2009 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Gold's technicals have been looking very promising in the recent past, but there have been two worrying developments over the past couple of weeks which suggest that we may be about to see a vicious shakeout rather than the breakout to new highs that so many are anticipating.
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news.goldseek.com >> 27 July 2009 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
The chances of gold breaking out to new highs in the near future are rapidly diminishing as the heavy hitters who have always prevailed up to this point are dramatically ramping up their short positions. Our COT chart shows a big increase in Commercial short positions just over the week up to last Tuesday to levels that in the past have preceded major reactions in gold.
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news.goldseek.com >> 13 July 2009 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
The Summer* doldrums are upon us with many investors more interested in the weather forecast than the markets. Although the Summer vacation period is often a time of drift in the markets for obvious reasons, there are exceptions like August 07, when the sub-prime crisis erupted, forcing many brokers to put down their champagne glasses and make a hasty retreat from the beach - and the lighter trading volumes at this time of year make it even easier for big money to steamroller the little guy.
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news.goldseek.com >> 21 June 2009 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Gold broke down and went into decline, as predicted in the last update posted early this month. At that time our maximum downside target was the strong support in the $880 area, but now there are strong signs that the decline has either run its course, or is close to having done so, and that a breakout to new highs may be close at hand.
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news.goldseek.com >> 7 June 2009 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Gold did embark on a new intermediate uptrend as predicted in the last Gold Market update posted towards the end of April, however, the uptrend was not as strong as expected and it failed to break out to new dollar highs and is now starting to weaken again without mounting a serious challenge of the highs first. This is bearish for the short to medium-term.
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news.goldseek.com >> 26 May 2009 |
If you are long the broad US stockmarket - PREPARE TO GET BURIED
By: Clive Maund
Fundamentally the rally in the broad stockmarket from early in March is viewed as being the result of a combination of media hype, wishful thinking and short covering, but there may be more to it than that - it would appear that a sizeable proportion of the TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program) funds not thus far deployed have been used to drive up the stockmarkets in order to create a positive environment for the banks to issue secondary shares and thus raise equity.
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news.goldseek.com >> 18 May 2009 |
Inflation or deflation - GOLD WILL BE KING...
By: Clive Maund
From August 2007 when the world passed the tipping point it has been in the grip of massive deflationary forces that have already ravaged portfolios and pension plans and resulted in millions losing their jobs. This deflationary implosion had become structurally inevitable and it was only ever a question of when, rather than if, it occurred.
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news.goldseek.com >> 10 May 2009 |
When The Rose Tinted Glasses Fall Off...
By: Clive Maund
We are going to start this article with a premise, which is that the bond market and the dollar are much more important to the powers that be in the US than the stockmarket. Two months ago the stockmarket was plumbing new lows and the end of the world was nigh. Now, instead, you walk down Wall St and everything is smelling of roses. Unfortunately, however, there is a massive storm threatening to break that will necessitate the immediate sacrifice of the stockmarket, and especially those mugs who have been taken in by the recovery hype being doled out by the media and have been buying the market in the recent past.
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news.goldseek.com >> 26 April 2009 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Last week gold rallied away from the danger zone, leaving behind a fine small Double bottom on its chart, and it is now shaping up to begin a strong run. On the 6-month chart we can see that gold honored the support described as being of key importance in the last update, rallying away from its early April low and its 200-day moving average to approach the return line of the downtrend channel shown. This is positive action that has created a cushion for those long gold.
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news.goldseek.com >> 19 April 2009 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Both gold and silver have suffered technical deterioration over the past week with the result that they are now close to aborting the short to medium-term bullish scenario that was set out in the last update. Meanwhile, large Precious Metals shares are on the point of breaking down from their shallow uptrends in force from December - January after further losses this past week.
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news.goldseek.com >> 12 April 2009 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Why can't folks break the habit of being so pessimistic at market bottoms? Not that we're complaining, if they did that would be one less thing that we'd have to go on. With people writing in to say that gold is going to $800, or $700, things are definitely looking up.
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news.goldseek.com >> 27 March 2009 |
Can the Zimbabwean School of Economics SAVE THE WORLD??...
By: Clive Maund
The bearmarket rally in the broad US stockmarket is thought to have about run its course, although it could run as far as 900 on the S&P500 for reasons set out below. The rally had its origins in extremes of negative sentiment before it started, so that once it got underway it was fuelled by short covering and media hype, especially the Obama optimism effect.
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news.goldseek.com >> 23 March 2009 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Last week a very dangerous precedent was set when the Fed announced that it is going to start overtly intervening to backstop the ailing Treasury market. The market's verdict on this announcement was immediate and unequivocal. While Treasuries rallied sharply as one might expect, the dollar cratered and gold staged a dramatic turnaround to close sharply higher.
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news.goldseek.com >> 19 March 2009 |
Gold to Soar
By: Clive Maund
You may have heard the old saying that "the Market is the news", and it is true. You don't have to look for explanations regarding yesterday's response by the markets to the Fed's announcement that it will buy $300 billion of Treasuries, you only have to look at the reaction of the markets. The dollar index tanked by nearly 3% - it's biggest drop for over 2 decades. That alone tells you all that you need to know.
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news.goldseek.com >> 8 March 2009 |
Copper and Oil Provide Early Warning of an End to the Global Economic Crisis…
By: Clive Maund
Something truly remarkable happened last week that has major implications for the global economic crisis - despite all the doom and gloom and the broad stockmarket continuing to make new lows, copper broke out upside from a 3-month long base pattern. Why is this so important?
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news.goldseek.com >> 1 March 2009 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Gold ran at its highs of last March, before reacting back heavily, as expected and predicted in the last update. The 1-year chart makes very clear why it has reacted back so. It hit the upper return line of a steep uptrend channel in a very overbought condition as shown by the RSI and slow stochastic on this chart, and various other oscillators that are not shown.
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news.goldseek.com >> 22 February 2009 |
MARKETWATCH - Precious Metals stocks stalemate about to end...
By: Clive Maund
Alot of subscribers have been perplexed by the relatively miserable, laggardly performance of Precious Metals stocks in recent days as gold and silver have soared, especially against various major world currencies. This is one thing which is easy to explain - they have been held in check by a massive wall of overhanging supply that dates back to the extensive trading around the current price for much of 2006 and 2007, which we have looked at earlier on the 4-year chart for the HUI index.
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news.goldseek.com >> 16 February 2009 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
While gold has made progress since the last update, it has not not broken out to new highs against the dollar as expected, because the dollar has held up. Nevertheless it has made satisfactory progress and has made new highs against many other currencies.
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news.goldseek.com >> 8 February 2009 |
COPPER - Upside Breakout Imminent, Implications for Commodities...
By: Clive Maund
Although copper may seem like a sideshow it is actually very important, for it is a barometer of changes in the world economy. In retrospect it is easy to see on its long-term chart below that its refusal to break higher for several years from what turned out to be a major top area was a warning that all was not well with the world economy.
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news.goldseek.com >> 5 February 2009 |
WHY JUNIORS?, WHY NOW? - analysis of the Canadian CDNX index...
By: Clive Maund
For over 18 months most junior mining stocks have put in an absolutely terrible performance. The chart for the CDNX index, which best represents junior gold miners as it is made of about 500 stocks most of which are mining stocks, makes this abundantly clear - and many investors in the sector will not of course need reminding of this.
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news.goldseek.com >> 26 January 2009 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Gold is now in position to break out to new dollar highs and embark on a very powerful run. It is not its action on Friday which gives rise to this positive view, although that was certainly impressive enough, but the extremely bearish action in the dollar last week, which suggests that it is on the verge of a breakdown and savage decline.
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news.goldseek.com >> 20 January 2009 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
The question now of course, particularly after the strong gains on Friday, is whether the reaction in the Precious Metals sector has run its course. Before attempting to answer this question it is worth stepping back to make some general observations about gold and the grave financial crisis gripping the world.
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news.goldseek.com >> 4 January 2009 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
We've been here before haven't we? Gold has been in a rising trend for some considerable time, taking it to trendline or resistance targets, and then "wham!" it gets whacked back down again. Certainly the long-term outlook for gold is excellent, especially given the strong and increasing demand for physical, but over the short to medium-term it now looks set to get taken down again.
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news.goldseek.com >> 23 December 2008 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
The way things look it will soon be impossible - or very difficult and expensive - to obtain physical gold and silver. The first major wave of physical buying has bought up all of the coins and small bar gold and silver available on the market, with the result that if you want any, you must pay a large premium. Right now, the second wave is underway, with astute investors forcing the Comex to deliver, which is having the effect of drawing down their warehouse stocks at a rapid rate.
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news.goldseek.com >> 16 December 2008 |
Bye bye dollar, bye bye Treasuries...
By: Clive Maund
Over the past several days the dollar has gone into a severe decline, and this drop does not look like a reaction within an ongoing uptrend, as was the case in September, for as we can see on the 6-month chart it follows the development of a Head-and-Shoulders top area, a distribution pattern that took nearly 2 months to form. It looks like the dollar has broken down from an important reversal pattern.