news.goldseek.com >> 11 May 2008
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news.goldseek.com >> 11 May 2008 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Gold’s corrective phase is believed to be complete, meaning that it is now in position to begin another major uptrend. In the last update, which was about 5 weeks ago, we were looking for it to continue to react back to support in the $830 - $850 area above its 200-day moving average, and that is exactly what it has done.
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
The severely overbought condition that had existed in March has more than completely unwound, as silver is now significantly oversold in the context of its larger uptrend, meaning that upside potential has been fully restored. In short the conditions are now ripe for a powerful uptrend to commence.
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news.goldseek.com >> 27 April 2008 |
POWERFUL BULLMARKET IN US STOCKS LOOMS as the US prepares for GLOBAL HEGEMONY...
By: Clive Maund
The United States is desperately sick economically, with an economy lamed by gargantuan debt, outsourcing and rampant speculation, and yet somehow it manages to spend more on its military machine than every other country in the world combined.
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news.goldseek.com >> 7 April 2008 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Even though gold may react back to the $830 - $850 area in coming weeks or over the next month or two to complete its corrective phase, the underlying forces driving its bull market remain intact, the primary one being the general massive expansion in the money supply, not just in the US but worldwide, fuelled in the US by the need to service careening deficit spending and bailout banks etc and overseas by competitive devaluation, whether officially acknowledged or not.
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news.goldseek.com >> 2 April 2008 |
Buy with Both Hands and Feet
By: Clive Maund
Gold dropped by a hefty $33 yesterday, vindicating our near-term bearish stance, but what was remarkable was that while Precious Metals stocks dropped substantially, the drop was nowhere near commensurate with the size of the drop in gold. Regardless of the extent to which this can be attributed to the strong rise in the broad market, it was a bullish sign.
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news.goldseek.com >> 30 March 2008 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Last week we got the expected relief rally in gold and silver and closed out profitable Call option trades mid-week as the rally topped out. Following the violent plunge the week before, the relative tranquility of the past week has provided an opportunity to reappraise the situation, and the implications of the plunge, which only a week ago had been thought to be just the steep initial phase of a correction that has already largely run its course, are now thought to be considerably more bearish for the intermediate term than was previously the case.
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
For reasons set out in full in the Gold Market update we are now adopting a more cautious tack with both gold and silver than that expressed in last week‘s updates, with the steep drop in the Precious Metals over a week ago now being considered to mark the start of a deeper and more prolonged corrective phase.
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news.goldseek.com >> 24 March 2008 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
The 1-year chart for gold is most interesting at this time, as it reveals that despite the ferocity of the plunge last week, gold dropped back to - but not below on a closing basis - the support of the lower intermediate uptrend channel that we had delineated some weeks back, and it also fell into a zone of strong support arising from earlier sellers around the $900 level, and closed off its lows on Friday. What this means is that gold is back in buying territory, even if we see further modest retreat in coming days/weeks that results in a trendline break.
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news.goldseek.com >> 19 March 2008 |
The Big 3 Iron Ore stocks, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale point to a commodities bust and global recession/depression
By: Clive Maund
A weakening in the price for iron ore and a nascent bear market in the big iron stocks serve as an early warning system that a recession/depression is looming. The purpose of this article is therefore to assess the condition of the world’s “big 3” iron ore stocks from which we should be able to divine the outlook for global commodity markets as a whole, and more than that, the outlook for the global economy.
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news.goldseek.com >> 13 March 2008 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Since the last update a very important technical pattern has been discovered first on the silver chart and then on the gold chart, which suggests an early end to the corrective phase in gold and silver and implies that the advance in both may be about to accelerate dramatically.
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
About a week ago in the last Silver Market update we called a SHORT-TERM top in gold and silver, and we got one. As you may recall the timeframe for the reaction was until about the 17th. Although we have seen a reaction it has thus far been modest, and now, after the extraordinary action and events of the past couple of days, it MAY be over.
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news.goldseek.com >> 10 March 2008 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
In the update last weekend we were looking for a correction back across the trend channel shown on the 1-year chart below, probably to the $910 area. In the week that has followed gold has churned beneath the resistance at its inner uptrend channel return line, remaining substantially overbought.
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news.goldseek.com >> 3 March 2008 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
With silver being in a critically overbought state and looking set to react very soon, we now have to “find reasons” for gold to react on its charts, since it is hardly likely that gold will continue higher while silver is reacting. Fortunately, if we look closely enough, it is not hard to find reasons for gold to react soon along with silver.
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news.goldseek.com >> 15 February 2008 |
The Looming Treasury Bond Massacre…
By: Clive Maund
Like frightened rabbits scurrying back to the apparent safety of their hutches, investors rattled by the sub-prime shocks and the associated tremors in stockmarkets have been fleeing to the perceived safety of Treasury Bonds and Notes. The bad news is that this time the poacher knows where the rabbits are hiding and rabbit stew is on the menu tonight.
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news.goldseek.com >> 27 January 2008 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
In the last update posted on the 15th January gold was expected to consolidate rather than react, but instead it got taken down temporarily by the near crash conditions that then rapidly developed across most markets. However, gold’s great strength and resilience at this time is amply demonstrated by the fact that it has since rebounded strongly and is back at its pre-panic highs - and the dramatic developments of the past week, most notably the Fed’s big rate cut, have greatly strengthened the bullish case for gold.
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
On the long-term 8-year chart we can see that silver is now just breaking out from a massive 20-month consolidation pattern to embark on another major uptrend. If it follows a similar trajectory to the powerful 2005 - 2006 uptrend, which is actually a modest expectation given the fundamental background, then $28 - $30 may be attained within 6 months or so.
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news.goldseek.com >> 21 January 2008 |
THE TRAGEDY OF THE US STOCKMARKET Part 2 - PPT failing, panic in Washington...
By: Clive Maund
The PPT are now in emergency session and panic has broken out behind the scenes in Washington, leading to the desperate measures announced by the administration on Friday. As this administration and the Federal Reserve no longer have a shred of credibility, the emergency measures just announced, which reek of desperation and panic, and any announced in the near future, are only likely to exacerbate the crisis.
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news.goldseek.com >> 17 January 2008 |
The Tragedy of the US Stock Market
By: Clive Maund
The conclusion from all of this should be obvious - apart from some isolated pockets of strength you should be out of the broad stockmarket by now, and any remaining holdings should be sold, especially on any short-term rallies, which can also be shorted. A high weighting of funds should be deployed in commodities generally and especially in the Precious Metals sector. Things are likely to get really rough for the US economy in 2008, which promises to be the worst year for the US since The Great Depression.
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news.goldseek.com >> 15 January 2008 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
This is not the time to get bogged down with minor details, and thus risk losing sight of the big picture, which is that gold is now in a powerful uptrend that has a lot further to run. For this reason we will only look at long-term 8-year charts in this update.
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Silver is at last breaking out of its massive 20-month consolidation pattern. It tried to do this last November, but the attempt was premature and it slumped back into pattern. Now it is expected to succeed and the advance should accelerate noticeably going forward.
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news.goldseek.com >> 3 January 2008 |
Gold Breakout Market Alert
By: Clive Maund
What a terrific start to the year for gold! When you see a breakout to new highs on the 1st trading day of the year like this for a commodity it normally signals further strong gains as the year continues.
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news.goldseek.com >> 17 December 2007 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
We don’t normally look at fundamentals in these Gold Market updates, but it is worth stopping for a moment to consider the implications of the latest stroke of genius announced last week by the Fed in its desperate attempts to prevent a credit crunch, as it has important implications for the price of gold.
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
In the last Silver Market update on 2nd December it was stated that if dollar strength continued as expected, silver could drop below the support zone centered on $14 and head lower towards the next support level in the $13.25 - $13.50 area. Since that time it has held up above the $14 support zone, but it dropped quite sharply late last week on renewed dollar strength and at the time of writing on Sunday 16th it has just broken below this support.
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news.goldseek.com >> 13 December 2007 |
NO WAY BACK - the horrible US economic morass
By: Clive Maund
Like a petulant child raging around because it got one candy when it expected two, the market threw a tantrum yesterday when it only got a quarter of a percent rate cut yesterday when it was hoping for more - but what good would it have done if rates had been cut by half a percent, or even a full one percent?
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news.goldseek.com >> 3 December 2007 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
The first and most important point to make is that the strong advance by gold throughout September and October and into early November involved a breakout from a consolidation pattern lasting approximately 15 months, and is regarded as the FIRST UPLEG of a major uptrend. This being so the current retreat is viewed as a reaction, not a top, so the only question is how far it runs before gold takes off again to the upside.
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Silver’s attempt early last month to break out above its highs of last year is not regarded as a failed breakout, but rather as a preliminary breakout. The reaction since that time has completely neutralized the overbought condition and brought Stochastics back close to their normal oversold limit, as shown on the 6-month chart presented here, and brought it back to a zone of support at the top of the late September - early October trading range, so that the reactive phase is now believed to be close to complete.
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news.goldseek.com >> 14 November 2007 |
GOLD - HARBINGER OF A GLOBAL RECESSION: At long last the fat lady sings
By: Nigel H Maund
There is a well known expression, related to classical opera, which goes something like this: "It isn't over until the fat lady sings". This relates to the most famous arias sung by sopranos prior to them dying by various means, often suicidal, at the close of Italian operas. The analogy to the main theme of this short essay could hardly be more appropriate.
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
For various reasons, fundamental and technical, the outlook for the dollar remains awful, and therefore any countertrend relief rally in the dollar is not expected to get far. On the 6-month dollar index chart shown, we can see that it could rally back to towards resistance in the vicinity of its steeply falling 50-day moving average, however, given all the negatives (and this does take contrarianism into account), it is thought unlikely that it will get beyond about 77, so it probably did about one third of its countertrend rally already yesterday.
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
“Thought I’d broken out didn’t you? - GOTCHA!!” Actually, silver is in the process of breaking out, and a reaction back into pattern was inevitable if gold hit the skids. With the picture for silver now looking at least as bullish longer term the reaction of the past two days is viewed as providing a buying opportunity.
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news.goldseek.com >> 4 November 2007 |
The "Child's Guide to Technical Analysis" looks at silver...
By: Clive Maund
On the long-term chart we can see that silver is in a fine, strong, long-term uptrend that should soon force an upside breakout above the clear line of resistance approaching the $15 level, leading to another substantial advance that will likely be similar in scale and duration to the powerful run up from September 2005 through May of last year.
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news.goldseek.com >> 24 October 2007 |
The Sham U.S Bull Market
By: Clive Maund
When the S&P500 index broke to new highs at the end of May and again in recent weeks there was a great media fanfare. In this brief article, which is actually directed at that select band of readers who are more interested in reality than illusion, we are going to examine this “remarkable accomplishment” to see just how remarkable it really was.
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news.goldseek.com >> 21 October 2007 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Gold’s situation now bears a striking resemblance to the period from September through November 2005, which was followed by an almost uninterrupted advance that resulted in near 60% gains.
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
It is important not to be fooled by the fact that silver hasn’t yet broken out to new highs, unlike gold, and to interpret this as a sign of weakness, for the current setup in silver is very bullish, even if it reacts back significantly short-term as now looks likely.
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news.goldseek.com >> 8 October 2007 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
We have been bullish on the broad stockmarket on the site, but short to medium-term bearish on gold and silver in the recent past and by extension gold and silver stocks, due principally to the distribution patterns that have formed in the metals and their increasingly bearish COT structure, especially gold. However, there is an inconsistency here that is becoming increasingly obvious and has led to a re-evaluation over the past couple of days.
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
We succeeded in sidestepping a hefty reaction in silver early last week, but while gold has already made good most of its losses of early last week, silver has not - yet, and long positions can therefore be reinstated at a better price, although some traders may prefer to wait for the "triple breakout" referred to in the Gold Market update before going long.
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news.goldseek.com >> 1 October 2007 |
The Broad Market
By: Clive Maund
We now have an extraordinarily bullish setup for the broad stockmarket, which as we will soon see is considerably amplified by the latest Commitment of Traders data, that is unprecedented in the writer’s experience, and startling.
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news.goldseek.com >> 30 September 2007 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
The way to be popular in this business it to tell people what they want to hear, which is that gold and silver are going up, up, up. However, if your priority is to assist people in making money or at least avoid losing it, then being popular has to be a secondary consideration.
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Even though recent action in silver has been very positive, with it finally breaking free from the shackles of its “Distribution Dome”, short-term it looks set to react significantly in sympathy with gold, a scenario that is made a lot more likely by last week’s sharp increase in the Commercials’ short positions. The long-term outlook remains strongly bullish, so if the expected short-term reaction occurs it will be viewed as presenting another buying opportunity.
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news.goldseek.com >> 4 September 2007 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
GOLD UPSIDE BREAKOUT ALERT! Gold is now in position to break above last year’s highs and embark on a major uptrend. On the 2-year chart we can see how, just by virtue of tracking sideways in a narrow range in recent weeks, it is getting clear of the resistance in the vicinity of the Distribution Dome, which of course signals that the distribution phase in the dome pattern is over - those who wanted to sell have done so.
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
At first glance the silver chart looks terrible, with last month’s dramatic breakdown below an important support level causing its moving averages to roll over and momentum to break to an 11-month low, and appears to confirm a Double Top with last year’s highs, with the price accelerating away to the downside. So the pullback of the past couple of weeks towards what is now resistance is understandably regarded by many disenchanted bulls as an opportunity to quit in disgust at a slightly better price. However, as we shall see, there is now strong evidence that the August plunge was a final capitulative flushout...
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news.goldseek.com >> 22 August 2007 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Gold held up remarkably well last week given the carnage all around, with silver and Precious Metals stocks cratering, and despite the sharp drop on Thursday it did not break below critical support, unlike silver.
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Silver failed to break clear above the Distribution Dome evident on its 2-year chart and paid the price last week when it cratered. This was in marked contrast to gold, which having looked stronger than silver for some time, broke above its Dome and did not break down below important support last week. However, there have been important developments over the past couple of weeks and especially late last week that are believed to be creating a positive environment for gold and silver.
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news.goldseek.com >> 7 August 2007 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
The outlook for gold turned decidedly more bullish last week when it broke above the confines of its “Distribution Dome” for the second time in the space of as many weeks. This breakout, which is less likely to fail than the last one did, has once again put gold in position to break strongly above last year’s highs, an event made more and more likely - some would say inevitable - by the crumbling dollar.
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Gold has been outperforming silver all year to date, and although this could change anytime, there is no sign of it yet. A recent example is the fact that gold has broken clear out of the restraining “Distribution Dome” shown on its chart, whereas silver has only managed a marginal breakout above its dome pattern.
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news.goldseek.com >> 23 July 2007 |
MARKETWATCH - This Time It's For Real...
By: Clive Maund
The powerful rally by large Precious Metals (PM) stocks over the past couple of weeks is believed to be the start of a ‘breakout drive” that will vault the sector indices out of the large holding patterns that they have been stuck in for past 18 months, for these patterns date back further than the actual highs to the start of last year, ushering in a period of rapid and substantial advance.
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news.goldseek.com >> 16 July 2007 |
Dollar At The Rubicon!...
By: Clive Maund
As many of you may recall, on the site we had earlier been wary of a substantial dollar rally, which was a big reason for fearing that a Double Top may be forming in gold and silver. However, the mounting evidence of an incubating major advance in the Precious Metals and PM stocks over the past few weeks, specifically signs of substantial accumulation of the larger PM stocks and the increasingly bullish COT profile of both gold and silver, have led us nevertheless to turn strongly bullish on the sector.
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news.goldseek.com >> 12 July 2007 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
There are several factors coming together now to suggest that a powerful rally in gold is drawing near, and because they are so clear and potent, they do not require a long-winded description.
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
The technical situation for silver closely parallels that for gold and therefore most of the arguments set out in the Gold Market update are applicable to silver. In this update we will therefore confine ourselves to highlighting the important points of difference between the two metals. One important development over the past week or so for silver has been the improvement in its COT structure that has at last given a major buy signal.
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news.goldseek.com >> 26 June 2007 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
We have recently maintained a neutral/bearish stance on gold, which was not unreasonable given the way the earlier advance had petered out and been followed by weakness resulting in the failure of a long-term uptrend line that signaled a change of intermediate trend from up to neutral/down. However, the subsequent lack of downside follow through to break the price below key support at and above its long-term 200 and 200-day moving averages, combined with emerging evidence of significant accumulation of large Precious Metals stocks has justified a review and a shift in stance to neutral/bullish.
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
The silver chart looks “uglier” than the gold chart right now, and with the price rounding over beneath a “Distribution Dome”, a series of lower highs and a trendline break, the downside risk is as obvious as the Marquis de Sade’s nose. However, as with gold it is holding up thus far at a point very close to its long-term moving averages, and there are signs of accumulation in various larger stocks. So it could nevertheless break out upside.
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news.goldseek.com >> 10 June 2007 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
This Gold Market update makes grim reading - if you believe it that is. Gold had been weakening and rounding over since its late February high, and on Thursday and Friday it dropped sharply, breaking below its uptrend in force for nearly 2 years, from July 2005, for the 1st time, after deceptively rising away from it.
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
The outlook for silver at this time is remarkably similar to that for gold and for the same reason - they are both threatened by a looming substantial rise in the dollar, which if it occurs, as now looks likely, will result in both gold and silver going into retreat and leaving behind large Double Tops on their charts.
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news.goldseek.com >> 29 May 2007 |
CHINA CRASH - domino effect on US markets, and collateral effect on resource stocks...
By: Clive Maund
One of the great fears plaguing resource stock investors is what will happen if the broad market suddenly goes into the tank. This fear is quite justified as resource stocks, in particular gold and silver stocks, have generally performed poorly in comparison with the general stock market over the past year, and every time the broad market shows signs of weakness, they have dropped sharply, a good example being last Thursday.
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news.goldseek.com >> 23 May 2007 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Oil is now very close to breaking out from the large Head-and-Shoulders bottom that we had earlier identified, and from the look of the latest oil COT chart, on which the Commercials short positions have shrunk dramatically, it is close to doing so – and if it does it will be on its way to $80 minimum. Needless to say this will be inflationary, and thus bullish for Precious Metals. Should this breakout occur, it will radically improve the outlook for gold and silver.
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
While looking weaker than gold at this time, silver is expected to turn up shortly for the same reason as gold - the inflationary implications of an impending sharp rise in the oil price – the expected breakout by oil from its large Head-and-Shoulders bottom formation will project it to a minimum target at $80.
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news.goldseek.com >> 14 May 2007 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
In the last update, published on or after 16th April, we expected gold to drop back from the $690 area due to the bearish COT structure, and that is what has happened. The latest COTs are not good news for bulls, with the Commercial shorts still at a high level - high enough to preclude a significant advance in the near future, and to maintain the risk of a substantial decline.
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
The silver chart should strike fear into the hearts of silver investors. There is no Ascending Triangle on the chart (from last May’s highs), as some claim, instead the pattern is looking more and more like a large Double Top, with the second peak taking the form of a Head-and-Shoulders top. Before anyone graciously goes to the trouble of enlightening the writer about the wonderful fundamentals for silver, let me say this - don’t bother, I know about them - and so does the market, that’s the trouble, they may already be fully discounted by the market.
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news.goldseek.com >> 30 April 2007 |
America for Sale!
By: Clive Maund
Many investors have been taken by surprise by the sudden strength in the broad US stockmarkets, especially given the severe structural problems of the US economy. The breakout to new highs by the Dow Jones Industrials was predicted in a Marketwatch article on 13th April, based on volume studies. The S&P500 index has not as yet broken out to new highs, but is close to doing so and is expected to shortly. What are the reasons for this sudden strength and to what extent is it an illusion?
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news.goldseek.com >> 23 April 2007 |
Resource Stocks
By: Clive Maund
Resource Stock investors have become increasingly excited as gold, silver and oil have advanced over the past 7 weeks or so, with the usual cheerleaders advancing plausible reasons why gold and silver will soon break out to new highs. However, as we will shortly see, big money is positioning itself to fleece the little guy yet again, with the same old music playing over, as it has done countless times in the past.
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news.goldseek.com >> 18 April 2007 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
The gradual uptrend of the past 6 weeks has brought gold once again to a critical juncture. This rise has brought it up to the late February high and within $40 of last year’s highs at about $730, raising hopes that it may soon break out to a new high.
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
The silver chart looks considerably less inspiring than the gold chart at this juncture, which is perhaps not so surprising as after outperforming gold last year, it has been underperforming it so far this year. On the 10-year chart the trading range that has followed the ramp from September 2005 through April last year does not look to be of sufficient duration to support another strong advance, and the uptrend channel drawn on this chart looks unsustainably steep and for these reasons the chances of a breakdown are considered to be quite high.
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news.goldseek.com >> 1 April 2007 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
At this point, the chances of it breaking out upside are regarded as significantly higher than the chances of a breakdown, and we are therefore positioned to take advantage of the expected upside breakout. Our strategy is to be committed to the long side in gold and gold stocks and ETF’s and options, but to be ready to exit should gold break below the blue trendline by a significant margin, which at the least would be expected to lead to a prolongation of the consolidation pattern involving a significant intermediate reaction, and at worst would signify completion of a Double Top that would lead to a substantial drop.
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
The silver chart looks considerably less inspiring than the gold chart at this juncture, which is perhaps not so surprising as after outperforming gold last year, it has been underperforming it so far this year. On the 10-year chart the trading range that has followed the ramp from September 2005 through April last year does not look to be of sufficient duration to support another strong advance, and the uptrend channel drawn on this chart looks unsustainably steep and for these reasons the chances of a breakdown are considered to be quite high.
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news.goldseek.com >> 4 March 2007 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
On 21st February an article was posted titled COMMERCIALS ON THE ROPES. This article was based on the erroneous presumption that “this time round it will be different” - that the COT pattern would be broken by a surge in physical demand. Well, as subsequent events have proved, this time round it wasn’t different, it was the same as it has always been. The Commercial shorts rose to a very high level and gold’s advance was killed and it went into sharp reverse. This was a serious error of judgment that will not be repeated.
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news.goldseek.com >> 28 February 2007 |
The Ugly Reality of the US Stockmarket
By: Clive Maund
It doesn’t take a great treatise or any “rocket science” to expose the ugly and sordid reality of the true condition of the broad US stockmarket - all it takes is a few charts and a modest helping of common sense.
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news.goldseek.com >> 26 February 2007 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Gold has gone and done it - after first breaking out upside from its 3-arc Fan Correction in January, a major positive technical development celebrated in the article Gold powering up for major uptrend - SECTORWIDE BUY ALERT, last week it smashed through the ceiling of resistance at and towards $680, with subsequent solid action confirming that this was a genuine breakout.
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Although silver did not stage such an obviously important breakout as gold last week, it did nevertheless rise in tandem, and succeeded in breaking out above important resistance at its early December highs, putting it in position for “The Big One”, which will be the breakout above last year’s highs at about $15.20, which is an objective that silver, with its propensity for big moves could easily achieve in a single day from the current position.
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news.goldseek.com >> 21 February 2007 |
Commercials on the Ropes
By: Clive Maund
Some people thought I was mad posting a GOLD and SILVER BREAKOUT ALERT on www.clivemaund.com on the 19th, what with the Commercials being so heavily short gold, and with yesterday’s action I began to wonder myself, which is why it didn’t get posted on public websites on the 20th as originally planned. The reason for posting that breakout alert was that a rare technical setup exists that actually makes the Commercials’ huge short position wildly bullish.
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news.goldseek.com >> 15 February 2007 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
We have seen the breakout predicted in the last Gold Market update, although so far subsequent gains have been modest as gold continues to be restrained by the strong resistance level shown on the 1-year chart in the $655 - $680 zone. Although we have seen limited gains so far following this breakout, it was nevertheless an important technical development that is viewed as marking the start of a major uptrend which is still in its infancy.
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Silver is believed to be slowly limbering up to take out the resistance at and towards last year’s highs, an event that can be expected to lead to a major advance. However, shorter-term the picture is not so bright.
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news.goldseek.com >> 11 February 2007 |
HUI Index Set to Advance to 700 - 900...
By: Clive Maund
In this game the most important things to observe are often the simplest - many people get lost in a quicksand of detail so that they can’t see the woods for the trees, and thus end up losing sight of the big picture. So today we are going to keep it simple and to the point, which is easy because the market itself is giving us some very clear indications.
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news.goldseek.com >> 6 February 2007 |
Gold Price Manipulation - DOES IT MATTER?
By: Clive Maund
There has been more talk in recent weeks on the subject of gold price manipulation. The purpose of this article is not to attempt to go into the details of whether or not there is manipulation, or how much there is, or who is doing it or why, because all of this is has been raked over by other writers in considerable detail. The purpose of this article is to examine what difference it makes to us as investors and traders, and how best to live with it.
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news.goldseek.com >> 29 January 2007 |
Gold powering up for major uptrend - SECTORWIDE BUY ALERT
By: Clive Maund
In conclusion, this is a most auspicious picture. Gold is a flat-out buy here, as are most Precious Metals stocks. The reaction late last week is viewed as providing probably the last opportunity to buy both gold and PM stocks at favorable prices before a powerful advance gets underway, although it is quite common after a breakout above a fan line for the price to drift back and run along the top of the fan line for a while before turning higher - if this happens it will provide an opportunity to buy at even better prices.
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news.goldseek.com >> 23 January 2007 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Subtle but important changes in recent days have substantially increased the chances of upside breakouts by gold and silver. The situation is now very finely balanced with an army of traders either sat on the fence, or, depending on which way it breaks, on the wrong side of the trade. When it does break out - and it is beginning to look like it will be to the upside, there will be a stampede and an upside breakout from here could thus easily involve a $20 - $30 up day for gold.
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Subtle but important changes in recent days have substantially increased the chances of upside breakouts by gold and silver. The situation is now very finely balanced with an army of traders either sat on the fence, or, depending on which way it breaks, on the wrong side of the trade. When it does break out - and it is beginning to look like it will be to the upside, there will be a stampede and an upside breakout from here could thus easily involve a $1 - $1.50 up day for silver.
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news.goldseek.com >> 19 January 2007 |
Up, Down or Sideways? - a Strategic Review
By: Clive Maund
As an investor, what matters to you more than anything, what is of paramount importance, is determining whether what you have invested in, or are thinking of investing in, is going to go up, down or sideways. If you are long you want the market to go up, if you are short you want it to go down, and if you have written both Call and Put options, you want it to move sideways. All consideration of fundamentals is subordinate to this Prime Objective.
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news.goldseek.com >> 15 January 2007 |
Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
We have seen the severe smackdown anticipated in the last Gold Market update, although it did first manage to trip our overhead stops by a whisker before plummeting. This resulted in a breakdown from the intermediate Head-and-Shoulders top area shown on the 6-month chart. On Friday, however, it surged back above the “neckline’ of this pattern, which is close to aborting. Although Friday’s rally was certainly impressive, we are definitely not out of the woods yet, as will be readily apparent when we look at the 6-year gold chart.
Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Silver suffered a similar New Year smack down to gold, broke down from a similar intermediate Head-and-Shoulders top area, and broke back above the “neckline” of the pattern on Friday, which is as a result also close to aborting. The strength of the move on Friday indicates that we should see follow through next week, but that the advance will stall out either at the resistance in the $13.25 area, or possibly at the resistance zone in the $13.75 - $15.20 area.
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news.goldseek.com >> 11 January 2007 |
Extreme Fear
By: Clive Maund
We have traded these markets on www.clivemaund.com successfully over the past several weeks, avoiding heavy losses and making money in Put options in stocks such as Newmont Mining, and, just a few days back, or even a day or two ago, it looked like the drop would continue. But, like the first breath of wind before a storm, evidence has begun to appear that a possibly dramatic reversal to the upside may be close at hand.
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news.goldseek.com >> 7 January 2007 |
Bottom Fishers Beware
By: Clive Maund
On www.clivemaund.com we saw last week’s commodity bloodbath coming and stood aside, with warnings being issued with respect to Precious Metals stocks on the 14th December and with respect to gold and silver themselves in the Gold and Silver updates on the 30th December, which did not get posted on public websites as usual due to illness and with respect to the oil sector on 2nd January.
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news.goldseek.com >> 4 January 2007 |
Commodity Implosion
By: Clive Maund
For commodities the new trading year did not start off with a bang or a whimper, but rather with an implosion. After moving higher in a most deceptive manner in the early trade commodities across the board went into a dramatic retreat, ending the day at or close to their lows. Damage was widespread and severe, and we will now quickly review it on a range of charts. The early rally is thought to have been an orchestrated campaign to shake out shorts ahead of the big drop.