news.goldseek.com >> 21 June 2009

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Gold broke down and went into decline, as predicted in the last update posted early this month. At that time our maximum downside target was the strong support in the $880 area, but now there are strong signs that the decline has either run its course, or is close to having done so, and that a breakout to new highs may be close at hand.

news.goldseek.com >> 7 June 2009

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Gold did embark on a new intermediate uptrend as predicted in the last Gold Market update posted towards the end of April, however, the uptrend was not as strong as expected and it failed to break out to new dollar highs and is now starting to weaken again without mounting a serious challenge of the highs first. This is bearish for the short to medium-term.

news.goldseek.com >> 26 May 2009

If you are long the broad US stockmarket - PREPARE TO GET BURIED
By: Clive Maund
Fundamentally the rally in the broad stockmarket from early in March is viewed as being the result of a combination of media hype, wishful thinking and short covering, but there may be more to it than that - it would appear that a sizeable proportion of the TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program) funds not thus far deployed have been used to drive up the stockmarkets in order to create a positive environment for the banks to issue secondary shares and thus raise equity.

news.goldseek.com >> 18 May 2009

Inflation or deflation - GOLD WILL BE KING...
By: Clive Maund
From August 2007 when the world passed the tipping point it has been in the grip of massive deflationary forces that have already ravaged portfolios and pension plans and resulted in millions losing their jobs. This deflationary implosion had become structurally inevitable and it was only ever a question of when, rather than if, it occurred.

news.goldseek.com >> 10 May 2009

When The Rose Tinted Glasses Fall Off...
By: Clive Maund
We are going to start this article with a premise, which is that the bond market and the dollar are much more important to the powers that be in the US than the stockmarket. Two months ago the stockmarket was plumbing new lows and the end of the world was nigh. Now, instead, you walk down Wall St and everything is smelling of roses. Unfortunately, however, there is a massive storm threatening to break that will necessitate the immediate sacrifice of the stockmarket, and especially those mugs who have been taken in by the recovery hype being doled out by the media and have been buying the market in the recent past.

news.goldseek.com >> 26 April 2009

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Last week gold rallied away from the danger zone, leaving behind a fine small Double bottom on its chart, and it is now shaping up to begin a strong run. On the 6-month chart we can see that gold honored the support described as being of key importance in the last update, rallying away from its early April low and its 200-day moving average to approach the return line of the downtrend channel shown. This is positive action that has created a cushion for those long gold.

news.goldseek.com >> 19 April 2009

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Both gold and silver have suffered technical deterioration over the past week with the result that they are now close to aborting the short to medium-term bullish scenario that was set out in the last update. Meanwhile, large Precious Metals shares are on the point of breaking down from their shallow uptrends in force from December - January after further losses this past week.

news.goldseek.com >> 12 April 2009

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Why can't folks break the habit of being so pessimistic at market bottoms? Not that we're complaining, if they did that would be one less thing that we'd have to go on. With people writing in to say that gold is going to $800, or $700, things are definitely looking up.

news.goldseek.com >> 27 March 2009

Can the Zimbabwean School of Economics SAVE THE WORLD??...
By: Clive Maund
The bearmarket rally in the broad US stockmarket is thought to have about run its course, although it could run as far as 900 on the S&P500 for reasons set out below. The rally had its origins in extremes of negative sentiment before it started, so that once it got underway it was fuelled by short covering and media hype, especially the Obama optimism effect.

news.goldseek.com >> 23 March 2009

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Last week a very dangerous precedent was set when the Fed announced that it is going to start overtly intervening to backstop the ailing Treasury market. The market's verdict on this announcement was immediate and unequivocal. While Treasuries rallied sharply as one might expect, the dollar cratered and gold staged a dramatic turnaround to close sharply higher.

news.goldseek.com >> 19 March 2009

Gold to Soar
By: Clive Maund
You may have heard the old saying that "the Market is the news", and it is true. You don't have to look for explanations regarding yesterday's response by the markets to the Fed's announcement that it will buy $300 billion of Treasuries, you only have to look at the reaction of the markets. The dollar index tanked by nearly 3% - it's biggest drop for over 2 decades. That alone tells you all that you need to know.

news.goldseek.com >> 8 March 2009

Copper and Oil Provide Early Warning of an End to the Global Economic Crisis…
By: Clive Maund
Something truly remarkable happened last week that has major implications for the global economic crisis - despite all the doom and gloom and the broad stockmarket continuing to make new lows, copper broke out upside from a 3-month long base pattern. Why is this so important?

news.goldseek.com >> 1 March 2009

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Gold ran at its highs of last March, before reacting back heavily, as expected and predicted in the last update. The 1-year chart makes very clear why it has reacted back so. It hit the upper return line of a steep uptrend channel in a very overbought condition as shown by the RSI and slow stochastic on this chart, and various other oscillators that are not shown.

news.goldseek.com >> 22 February 2009

MARKETWATCH - Precious Metals stocks stalemate about to end...
By: Clive Maund
Alot of subscribers have been perplexed by the relatively miserable, laggardly performance of Precious Metals stocks in recent days as gold and silver have soared, especially against various major world currencies. This is one thing which is easy to explain - they have been held in check by a massive wall of overhanging supply that dates back to the extensive trading around the current price for much of 2006 and 2007, which we have looked at earlier on the 4-year chart for the HUI index.

news.goldseek.com >> 16 February 2009

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
While gold has made progress since the last update, it has not not broken out to new highs against the dollar as expected, because the dollar has held up. Nevertheless it has made satisfactory progress and has made new highs against many other currencies.

news.goldseek.com >> 8 February 2009

COPPER - Upside Breakout Imminent, Implications for Commodities...
By: Clive Maund
Although copper may seem like a sideshow it is actually very important, for it is a barometer of changes in the world economy. In retrospect it is easy to see on its long-term chart below that its refusal to break higher for several years from what turned out to be a major top area was a warning that all was not well with the world economy.

news.goldseek.com >> 5 February 2009

WHY JUNIORS?, WHY NOW? - analysis of the Canadian CDNX index...
By: Clive Maund
For over 18 months most junior mining stocks have put in an absolutely terrible performance. The chart for the CDNX index, which best represents junior gold miners as it is made of about 500 stocks most of which are mining stocks, makes this abundantly clear - and many investors in the sector will not of course need reminding of this.

news.goldseek.com >> 26 January 2009

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Gold is now in position to break out to new dollar highs and embark on a very powerful run. It is not its action on Friday which gives rise to this positive view, although that was certainly impressive enough, but the extremely bearish action in the dollar last week, which suggests that it is on the verge of a breakdown and savage decline.

news.goldseek.com >> 20 January 2009

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
The question now of course, particularly after the strong gains on Friday, is whether the reaction in the Precious Metals sector has run its course. Before attempting to answer this question it is worth stepping back to make some general observations about gold and the grave financial crisis gripping the world.

news.goldseek.com >> 4 January 2009

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
We've been here before haven't we? Gold has been in a rising trend for some considerable time, taking it to trendline or resistance targets, and then "wham!" it gets whacked back down again. Certainly the long-term outlook for gold is excellent, especially given the strong and increasing demand for physical, but over the short to medium-term it now looks set to get taken down again.

news.goldseek.com >> 23 December 2008

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
The way things look it will soon be impossible - or very difficult and expensive - to obtain physical gold and silver. The first major wave of physical buying has bought up all of the coins and small bar gold and silver available on the market, with the result that if you want any, you must pay a large premium. Right now, the second wave is underway, with astute investors forcing the Comex to deliver, which is having the effect of drawing down their warehouse stocks at a rapid rate.

news.goldseek.com >> 16 December 2008

Bye bye dollar, bye bye Treasuries...
By: Clive Maund
Over the past several days the dollar has gone into a severe decline, and this drop does not look like a reaction within an ongoing uptrend, as was the case in September, for as we can see on the 6-month chart it follows the development of a Head-and-Shoulders top area, a distribution pattern that took nearly 2 months to form. It looks like the dollar has broken down from an important reversal pattern.

news.goldseek.com >> 8 December 2008

The Great Treasury Trap
By: Clive Maund
Watching investors fleeing into the perceived safety of US Treasuries is akin to watching people board the Titanic in the movie - you know that they are doomed. This is because the United States is totally bankrupt - more than bankrupt in fact, since its debts are physically impossible to repay in any circumstances and what we are witnessing now is the cowards way out - the creation of money in whatever quantity is necessary to prevent total gridlock.

news.goldseek.com >> 26 November 2008

Paulson's favorite song: "I wish it could be Christmas every day" - well it can be thanks to the Fiat money system...
By: Clive Maund
Gold has rallied by $135 per ounce in recent days and yet the open interest has gone down showing that much of the move was created by shorts closing their positions. This will encourage more long interest to enter the market and should contribute to markedly higher prices in the coming weeks.

news.goldseek.com >> 20 November 2008

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Gold has remained in a narrowing trading range since the last update late in October, which is looking increasingly like an intermediate base area that will lead to a significant advance. In the last update a relief rally was predicted on the basis that the preceding steep downtrend had exhausted itself, and this is what we saw, although it didn't get very far.

news.goldseek.com >> 27 October 2008

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
The action in gold on Thursday and especially on Friday was bullish, as well it might be after a near vertical drop of nearly $200 in just 2 weeks. In the article At what point does gold become a full blown bearmarket? posted on the site on 23rd it was made clear that the strong support in the $700 area needed to hold, otherwise gold would join copper and silver and many other commodities in being a bearmarket, at least as far as its paper price is concerned.

news.goldseek.com >> 20 October 2008

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
The reason why commodities and stocks have been collapsing is liquidity problems and the consequent threat of deflation, and the collapse has been made far worse as a result of the extreme leveraging that had earlier been employed in the markets, which has resulted in a destructive vicious circle as each downleg triggered a fresh wave of selling as stops and margin calls kicked in.

news.goldseek.com >> 6 October 2008

Impending Economic Collapse in the U.S. and Death of Democracy
By: Clive Maund
Soon we will consider the likely impact of all this on gold and silver prices, both on the paper prices and on the prices for real physical gold and silver that you can hold in your hand, and consider the merits of gold and silver versus gold and silver stocks. Another subject we will turn our attention to is measures to improve security in conditions of anarchy or near anarchy.

news.goldseek.com >> 22 September 2008

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Although gold staged an amazingly powerful rally last Wednesday and Thursday, some are worried that the reaction on Friday, seemingly in response to the newly hatched "bailout plan" by the government and the Fed, marks the start of a slump back into obscurity as the bailout plan "works", so that last week's sharp rally turns out to have been nothing but a temporary spike. So let's make several things clear.

news.goldseek.com >> 21 September 2008

The Bailout Plan - what does it mean? - especially for gold and T Bonds.
By: Clive Maund
Many investors in the Precious Metals sector are worried that the "bailout plan" announced yesterday will resolve the crisis with the effect that things will return to normal and gold and silver will as a result go into retreat once more. Nothing could be further than the truth. There are several important observations to make regarding the "bailout plan".

news.goldseek.com >> 14 September 2008

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
A confluence of factors suggests that we have just seen the bottom in gold and silver, or if not that the bottom is very close. The last update called the bottom too early as renewed dollar strength resulted in another downleg in the metals.

news.goldseek.com >> 26 August 2008

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Gold is believed to have bottomed. It crashed the support at $850 as predicted in the last update and plunged to hit a low $8 below our target range on a closing basis. Our target range for the drop was $800 - $825, and it bottomed at $792, with an intraday low at approximately $788.

Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Silver is believed to have bottomed. On the 1-year chart we can see how the failure of the clear line of support (now strong resistance) at and above the $16 level led to a savage plunge. It crashed the next line of strong support that we had expected to hold but stabilized not far below it, the decline doubtless being arrested by the unprecedented oversold extreme that it had by this time attained.

news.goldseek.com >> 12 August 2008

Precious Metals Stocks Major Buy Alert
By: Clive Maund
Market panics are a "harvest time" for seasoned speculators who, armed with a war chest of cash, coolly watch from the sidelines as the great unwashed masses push and shove and beat their way towards the exits, gripped by blind fear that the world is coming to an end, at least as far as their investments are concerned, and that if they don't sell immediately their previously cherished holdings, they will get much less for them later and perhaps nothing.

news.goldseek.com >> 10 August 2008

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
A week of dramatic developments ended with the dollar surging to 6-month highs and silver crashing an important support level and plunging. Gold, however, did not break below its important $850 support level, although as we shall see this certainly does not mean it won't soon.

news.goldseek.com >> 27 July 2008

Gold Market Update - July 27, 2008
By: Clive Maund
While the broad stockmarket has staged a relief rally from deeply oversold in response to the Fannie and Freddie bailout and oil has tumbled over the past week or two, both as predicted, gold has suffered more collateral damage than expected from these factors resulting in quite heavy losses in the Precious Metals sector. Conspiracy theorists are arguing that gold was deliberately targeted in order to help protect the dollar at a time when it is especially vulnerable due to the European Central Bank raising rates. Whatever the truth of this the magnitude of the decline in gold was not actually that great as we will shortly see when we examine the chart, while the danger to the dollar has certainly not been mitigated - on the contrary it has gotten worse.

news.goldseek.com >> 14 July 2008

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Last week both gold and silver staged important breakouts from base areas to commence major uptrends. This is a development that we had been expecting for quite some time. On the 1-year chart for gold we can see how it first broke out from the 3-arc Fan Correction that we earlier delineated with the biggest one day rise for many years - itself a very bullish development.

news.goldseek.com >> 22 June 2008

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Although gold has remained in the doldrums since the last update, there is plenty of evidence that another strong uptrend is solely a question of when, not if. On the 1-year chart we can see that the reactive phase in force from mid-March is taking the form of 3-arc Fan Correction that is now believed to be quite close to completion.

Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Like gold, silver has been marking out a 3-arc Fan Correction following its March peak, and the chief difference between the two is that silver looks even stronger. On the 1-year chart we can see that silver has marked out a more solid looking base line of support between about $16.20 and $16.50 above its rising 200-day moving average and we can also see that it is closer to breaking out above the 3rd fanline of the fan pattern.

news.goldseek.com >> 13 June 2008

The Danger of Commodity Market Intervention
By: Clive Maund
Just a week ago gold and silver were well placed to begin a new uptrend and while they are still are, we have over the past week witnessed severe testing of - and erosion of - support at a critical level that is leading to rapidly increasing downside risk.

news.goldseek.com >> 5 June 2008

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
The reality is that the present situation is very bullish indeed. The downtrend reaction has clearly ended as our chart shows - it has run its course and fulfilled its purpose of unwinding the excesses of the previous uptrend. Having broken out from the downtrend the price has since reacted back into a zone of strong support just above its still 200-day moving average.

news.goldseek.com >> 11 May 2008

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Gold’s corrective phase is believed to be complete, meaning that it is now in position to begin another major uptrend. In the last update, which was about 5 weeks ago, we were looking for it to continue to react back to support in the $830 - $850 area above its 200-day moving average, and that is exactly what it has done.

Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
The severely overbought condition that had existed in March has more than completely unwound, as silver is now significantly oversold in the context of its larger uptrend, meaning that upside potential has been fully restored. In short the conditions are now ripe for a powerful uptrend to commence.

news.goldseek.com >> 27 April 2008

POWERFUL BULLMARKET IN US STOCKS LOOMS as the US prepares for GLOBAL HEGEMONY...
By: Clive Maund
The United States is desperately sick economically, with an economy lamed by gargantuan debt, outsourcing and rampant speculation, and yet somehow it manages to spend more on its military machine than every other country in the world combined.

news.goldseek.com >> 7 April 2008

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Even though gold may react back to the $830 - $850 area in coming weeks or over the next month or two to complete its corrective phase, the underlying forces driving its bull market remain intact, the primary one being the general massive expansion in the money supply, not just in the US but worldwide, fuelled in the US by the need to service careening deficit spending and bailout banks etc and overseas by competitive devaluation, whether officially acknowledged or not.

news.goldseek.com >> 2 April 2008

Buy with Both Hands and Feet
By: Clive Maund
Gold dropped by a hefty $33 yesterday, vindicating our near-term bearish stance, but what was remarkable was that while Precious Metals stocks dropped substantially, the drop was nowhere near commensurate with the size of the drop in gold. Regardless of the extent to which this can be attributed to the strong rise in the broad market, it was a bullish sign.

news.goldseek.com >> 30 March 2008

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Last week we got the expected relief rally in gold and silver and closed out profitable Call option trades mid-week as the rally topped out. Following the violent plunge the week before, the relative tranquility of the past week has provided an opportunity to reappraise the situation, and the implications of the plunge, which only a week ago had been thought to be just the steep initial phase of a correction that has already largely run its course, are now thought to be considerably more bearish for the intermediate term than was previously the case.

Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
For reasons set out in full in the Gold Market update we are now adopting a more cautious tack with both gold and silver than that expressed in last week‘s updates, with the steep drop in the Precious Metals over a week ago now being considered to mark the start of a deeper and more prolonged corrective phase.

news.goldseek.com >> 24 March 2008

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
The 1-year chart for gold is most interesting at this time, as it reveals that despite the ferocity of the plunge last week, gold dropped back to - but not below on a closing basis - the support of the lower intermediate uptrend channel that we had delineated some weeks back, and it also fell into a zone of strong support arising from earlier sellers around the $900 level, and closed off its lows on Friday. What this means is that gold is back in buying territory, even if we see further modest retreat in coming days/weeks that results in a trendline break.

news.goldseek.com >> 19 March 2008

The Big 3 Iron Ore stocks, BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Vale point to a commodities bust and global recession/depression
By: Clive Maund
A weakening in the price for iron ore and a nascent bear market in the big iron stocks serve as an early warning system that a recession/depression is looming. The purpose of this article is therefore to assess the condition of the world’s “big 3” iron ore stocks from which we should be able to divine the outlook for global commodity markets as a whole, and more than that, the outlook for the global economy.

news.goldseek.com >> 13 March 2008

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Since the last update a very important technical pattern has been discovered first on the silver chart and then on the gold chart, which suggests an early end to the corrective phase in gold and silver and implies that the advance in both may be about to accelerate dramatically.

Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
About a week ago in the last Silver Market update we called a SHORT-TERM top in gold and silver, and we got one. As you may recall the timeframe for the reaction was until about the 17th. Although we have seen a reaction it has thus far been modest, and now, after the extraordinary action and events of the past couple of days, it MAY be over.

news.goldseek.com >> 10 March 2008

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
In the update last weekend we were looking for a correction back across the trend channel shown on the 1-year chart below, probably to the $910 area. In the week that has followed gold has churned beneath the resistance at its inner uptrend channel return line, remaining substantially overbought.

news.goldseek.com >> 3 March 2008

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
With silver being in a critically overbought state and looking set to react very soon, we now have to “find reasons” for gold to react on its charts, since it is hardly likely that gold will continue higher while silver is reacting. Fortunately, if we look closely enough, it is not hard to find reasons for gold to react soon along with silver.

news.goldseek.com >> 15 February 2008

The Looming Treasury Bond Massacre…
By: Clive Maund
Like frightened rabbits scurrying back to the apparent safety of their hutches, investors rattled by the sub-prime shocks and the associated tremors in stockmarkets have been fleeing to the perceived safety of Treasury Bonds and Notes. The bad news is that this time the poacher knows where the rabbits are hiding and rabbit stew is on the menu tonight.

news.goldseek.com >> 27 January 2008

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
In the last update posted on the 15th January gold was expected to consolidate rather than react, but instead it got taken down temporarily by the near crash conditions that then rapidly developed across most markets. However, gold’s great strength and resilience at this time is amply demonstrated by the fact that it has since rebounded strongly and is back at its pre-panic highs - and the dramatic developments of the past week, most notably the Fed’s big rate cut, have greatly strengthened the bullish case for gold.

Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
On the long-term 8-year chart we can see that silver is now just breaking out from a massive 20-month consolidation pattern to embark on another major uptrend. If it follows a similar trajectory to the powerful 2005 - 2006 uptrend, which is actually a modest expectation given the fundamental background, then $28 - $30 may be attained within 6 months or so.

news.goldseek.com >> 21 January 2008

THE TRAGEDY OF THE US STOCKMARKET Part 2 - PPT failing, panic in Washington...
By: Clive Maund
The PPT are now in emergency session and panic has broken out behind the scenes in Washington, leading to the desperate measures announced by the administration on Friday. As this administration and the Federal Reserve no longer have a shred of credibility, the emergency measures just announced, which reek of desperation and panic, and any announced in the near future, are only likely to exacerbate the crisis.

news.goldseek.com >> 17 January 2008

The Tragedy of the US Stock Market
By: Clive Maund
The conclusion from all of this should be obvious - apart from some isolated pockets of strength you should be out of the broad stockmarket by now, and any remaining holdings should be sold, especially on any short-term rallies, which can also be shorted. A high weighting of funds should be deployed in commodities generally and especially in the Precious Metals sector. Things are likely to get really rough for the US economy in 2008, which promises to be the worst year for the US since The Great Depression.

news.goldseek.com >> 15 January 2008

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund
This is not the time to get bogged down with minor details, and thus risk losing sight of the big picture, which is that gold is now in a powerful uptrend that has a lot further to run. For this reason we will only look at long-term 8-year charts in this update.

Silver Market Update
By: Clive Maund
Silver is at last breaking out of its massive 20-month consolidation pattern. It tried to do this last November, but the attempt was premature and it slumped back into pattern. Now it is expected to succeed and the advance should accelerate noticeably going forward.

news.goldseek.com >> 3 January 2008

Gold Breakout Market Alert
By: Clive Maund
What a terrific start to the year for gold! When you see a breakout to new highs on the 1st trading day of the year like this for a commodity it normally signals further strong gains as the year continues.