news.goldseek.com >> 6 November 2009
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news.goldseek.com >> 6 November 2009 |
Gold at Both Ends of the Economic K Wave
By: Clif Droke
Now that the 10-year cycle has peaked, fear will become the dominant emotion in the financial marketplace in the years ahead. Risk aversion is on the rise since the credit crisis and investors must look to those assets which tend to benefit from fear. Gold is of course the chief beneficiary of fear and has the added feature of being a hedge against a hyper-deflationary environment. Hyper deflation will be the order of the day in 2012-2014 when the final leg of the 60-year cycle descends.
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news.goldseek.com >> 1 November 2009 |
Are China Bulls Being Prepared For Slaughter?
By: Clif Droke
After the apparently success of its stimulus program, China’s remarkable economic recovery has many observers forecasting an even brighter future for the emerging powerhouse. China’s 2008-2009 economic rebound and rising appetite for commodities has made many bullish converts. A close look at some important indicators, however, calls that optimism into question…
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news.goldseek.com >> 25 October 2009 |
The War over the Dollar versus Gold
By: Clif Droke
A fierce war of words has erupted in recent weeks between the two major camps in monetary circles. The first camp – the gold bulls/dollar bears – have been loudly voicing their twin belief that the gold price is poised to skyrocket while the dollar price is perched for a collapse. The other side – the gold bears/dollar bulls – are making the counter claim the gold price is setting up for a crash.
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news.goldseek.com >> 11 October 2009 |
A Look at Producer Expectations for Gold, Base Metals Prices
By: Clif Droke
The XAU Gold Silver Index closed 1.38% higher on Thursday, Oct. 8, at 177.22. The Gold Bugs Index (HUI) was 1.43% higher at 449.61. October gold closed 1.14% higher at $1,056. December silver was 1.80% higher at $17.81. Gold is at an all-time high and the XAU index has recently achieved a new recovery high for the year.
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news.goldseek.com >> 27 September 2009 |
The Great China Conundrum
By: Clif Droke
Probably the biggest “X-factor” in the ongoing effort at reviving the global economy is China. China is seen by many as the world’s emerging industrial powerhouse and its relationship with the United States is considered to be crucial for its own development, as well as for the strength of the world economy. With the U.S. in the role as the world’s premier consumer and China considered to be the major industrial player, all eyes are on the respective economies of these two great nations.
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news.goldseek.com >> 18 September 2009 |
Clif's Notes: Grand Supercycle Favors Gold & Silver
By: The Gold Report and Clif Droke
A serious student of equity market cycles and stock charts, market technician Clif Droke pulls no punches about the fact that the 120-year Grand Supercycle bodes ill as it approaches its end. Although his analyses of charts and cycles suggest some bright days on the near-term horizon, they also foretell depressing darkness by the middle of the next decade.
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news.goldseek.com >> 10 September 2009 |
Gold, Stocks and the 10-Year Cycle Peak
By: Clif Droke
Talk is now circulating in financial quarters of a new “mini-bubble” in the making. Apparently the unbounded rise in the stock market is reviving fears of another collapse like the one suffered last year.
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news.goldseek.com >> 23 August 2009 |
The Power of the 10-Year Cycle
By: Clif Droke
Here we are again approaching another 10-year cycle peak. The last such peak was in 1999 while the most recent 10-year cycle bottom was in 2004. We wrote extensively on both episodes at the time and the 10-year cycle is one of our favorites. It’s what I like to call the “slam dunk” cycle since among all the yearly Kress cycles, the 10-year cycle at its peak and bottom phase can almost always be used for profitable trading/investing almost by itself.
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news.goldseek.com >> 3 August 2009 |
The Great Missed Opportunity of 2009
By: Clif Droke
When the books have been written on 2009, the prevailing story will undoubtedly be one of lost opportunity. Countless numbers of investors caught up in the tangled web of pessimistic headlines failed to pull the trigger on what is turning out to be one of the best market recovery years of our lifetime.
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news.goldseek.com >> 27 July 2009 |
The Dangers of Drinking From the Horse Trough
By: Clif Droke
One of the most talked about themes of the past few weeks was the supposedly bearish “head and shoulders” pattern in the daily chart of the S&P 500 Index. The financial press drew investors’ attention to this pattern in the most alarmist tones they could muster. A plethora of market technicians were trotted out each day to remind one and all that this “H&S top” was a precursor of a major decline, if not an outright collapse.
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news.goldseek.com >> 20 July 2009 |
It Doesn’t Pay To Fall Asleep In a Recovery
By: Clif Droke
The vast majority of retail investors have “fallen asleep” on the broad market recovery since March. The sleepy character of market psychology has become even more pronounced in just the last few weeks as the market spent some time consolidating its gains. In that period of time we’ve seen quite a few analysts turn bearish on the market, which is usually a big mistake in a year when the dominant yearly Kress cycle is up.
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news.goldseek.com >> 7 July 2009 |
Inflation, Sentiment and the Kress Cycles
By: Clif Droke
Despite a 40% market recovery and an abatement of the credit crisis, a climate of high fear abounds among market participants. Investor sentiment polls continue to show an excess of bears over bulls as few believe that a recovery can be sustained.
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news.goldseek.com >> 29 June 2009 |
Bernanke on the Great Depression
By: Clif Droke
A major result of last year’s credit storm is a lingering sense of dread and foreboding among investors. Many are waiting for the proverbial “other shoe to drop” as the memories of last year’s crisis, and its attendant economic effects, are still fresh in mind.
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news.goldseek.com >> 1 June 2009 |
Retroflation Revisited
By: Clif Droke
Back in 2001-2002 I used the term “retroflation” in a series of newsletters and articles to describe what I saw as a battle between the forces of inflation and deflation. The Kress 30-year cycle had peaked in late 1999 and with it the 1990s bull market in stocks. The U.S. was in the throes of economic recession and tech stocks were in freefall. Yet the Kress cycles called for a major bottom in late 2002 with the 6-year/12-year cycle bottoming and the Fed was already beginning to aggressive cut interest rates, showing that it was serious about re-inflating the economy.
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news.goldseek.com >> 17 May 2009 |
The “Silent Rally” In Gold
By: Clif Droke
Gold’s latest rally is a microcosm of what I expect for 2009. The rally to date has been a “silent” one in that it hasn’t been overly exciting or suggestive of major inflation. Many traders have slept on this one despite being fairly profitable for us so far. But it does denote recovery and also perhaps reflects lingering concerns over the stability of the financial system, a carryover from last year’s severe bear market.
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news.goldseek.com >> 6 May 2009 |
Why 2009 Is Turning Out To Be a Repeat of 1975
By: Clif Droke
The impressive recovery in the S&P 500 index to date has been brought to us courtesy of a massive shift in the market’s internal rate of change. This was characterized by the extreme diminution of stocks making the new 52-week lows list on the NYSE since the early March bottom.
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news.goldseek.com >> 14 April 2009 |
Leading Economic Indicators Point to Improvement
By: Clif Droke
Since the start of the new millennium and new century, many of the old truisms that applied to economic forecasting are no longer relevant. So many things have changed in the last nine years that a new set of economic “rules” is in order.
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news.goldseek.com >> 5 April 2009 |
Why Retail Investors Are Starving Themselves to Death
By: Clif Droke
Since the market bottomed and the new cyclical recovery bull market began, retail investors have gone on a collective buyer’s strike. Call it a “hunger strike” if you will. The retail crowd is effectively starving itself by missing out on some remarkable recoveries in recent weeks and will most likely continue to miss out on these opportunity until they simply can’t take it anymore. In other words, a classic repetition of the idealized market cycle is setting up perfectly.
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news.goldseek.com >> 18 March 2009 |
Market Bottom and the Bookstore Indicator
By: Clif Droke
It’s hard to be positive about the stock market when all around us gloom prevails. Visiting a local Barnes & Noble recently made me conscious of just how gloomy everyone is feeling these days. While there I made a list of some of the titles in the financial section. Finding a book these days with a bullish theme – or even a non-emotional, level-headed theme –is like trying to find a needle in a haystack.
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news.goldseek.com >> 9 March 2009 |
One Last Bubble Remains to Be Popped
By: Clif Droke
The problem plaguing the market heretofore has been two-fold: a lack of buyers on the retail side and deleveraging on the institutional side of the aisle. In an all-out liquidation market cycles, support levels and technical indicators are of little to no use until the panic subsides and a level-headed approach prevails.
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news.goldseek.com >> 17 February 2009 |
Base Building Considerations for Stocks and Commodities
By: Clif Droke
The most salient feature of the markets at this juncture is the number of interim bases that have been building in several major sectors, including copper and other economically sensitive groups. In this commentary we’ll examine the bottoms currently being established for stocks and one of the key supports for the continued recovery in the precious metals mining sector, namely copper and copper mining shares.
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news.goldseek.com >> 8 February 2009 |
A Confidence Crisis, Not a Money Crisis
By: Clif Droke
The crisis we keep hearing so much about, which formally began in 2007 and intensified in 2008, was at root a crisis in confidence. True, the credit crisis had its origins in the tight money policy of the Federal Reserve beginning in 2004 and continuing into 2007. So there was definitely a money/credit aspect to the crisis. But more than any single factor – and this has been especially true in the past few months – the crisis has been more about shattered confidence than a dearth of liquidity.
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news.goldseek.com >> 27 January 2009 |
An Interview With A Cycle Master, Part 2
By: Clif Droke
Following our previous interview in August, Kress was kind enough grant me another interview concerning his cycle work and investment/economic outlook for the U.S. in the foreseeable future. He also shared his longer-term outlook for gold and commodities.
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news.goldseek.com >> 5 January 2009 |
A Bouncing Baby Bull
By: Clif Droke
The old man of 2008 has yielded his place to the baby New Year and with it a changing of the guard. Not only has 2009 brought a fresh new start with a clean slate, but also a new series of Kress cycles.
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news.goldseek.com >> 29 December 2008 |
Recession: A Reason To Rejoice
By: Clif Droke
What would normally be a time of happiness and cheer this holiday season has become instead an occasion of gloom and foreboding for many. At every turn we hear dire predictions of pending calamities to befall the economy in 2009. Prophecies of another Great Crash like the one of 1929 are repeated with such frequency that they are now believed by one and all.
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news.goldseek.com >> 17 December 2008 |
Blood in the Streets All Over the Place
By: Clif Droke
As the bear market ends and a new cyclical bull market begins with the bottoming of the 6-year cycle, we continue see the lagging effects of this year’s seismic volatility on almost a daily basis. For although the stock market price low has almost certainly been made and the 6-year cycle is starting to assert itself on the upside, more and more investors have capitulated to the emotional exhaustion the previous months have subjected them to.