news.goldseek.com >> 4 June 2008
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news.goldseek.com >> 4 June 2008 |
Warren Buffett and the Crude Oil Crisis
By: Clif Droke
Now that the financial system has been bailed out, it remains for the beleaguered consumer to be rescued from the doldrums he currently faces. When will the consumer finally be freed from the torment that is so prevalent out there? It shouldn’t surprise you that the answer will come from today’s most talked about culprit: the price of oil.
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news.goldseek.com >> 30 May 2008 |
Revolution and Market Cycles
By: Clif Droke
The bottoming of the 120-year Master Cycle always brings about revolution. The first revolution since the founding of our nation in the 1770s was political in nature. The second revolution, when the last 120-year cycle bottomed in the 1890s, was industrial. The third revolution when the current 120-year cycle bottoms next decade will probably be a social one.
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news.goldseek.com >> 18 May 2008 |
Economic Collapse in September?
By: Clif Droke
A rumor is swirling around the Internet that an inglorious end to the U.S. economy is imminent. Unlike previous rumors to this effect, this one carries the weight of recent events in the financial realm and has many believing the rumor will come to pass.
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news.goldseek.com >> 29 April 2008 |
Will the Fed Create More Inflation in Commodities?
By: Clif Droke
Inflation has been investors’ main focus lately. A commonly held assumption is that the Fed’s aggressive lowering of interest rates will only result in more inflation and an even bigger bulge in commodities prices. Is this a necessary outcome of increased liquidity and lower rates?
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news.goldseek.com >> 28 April 2008 |
Alan Greenspan: The Age of Hubris (and the long road back)
By: Clif Droke
The problem is that when Greenspan was Fed chairman he had no policy to adhere to and that's why his monetary "policy" was all over the place. He created a tumultuous rollercoaster ride for the financial markets and the economy, amplifying the business cycle many times worse than it had to be.
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news.goldseek.com >> 24 April 2008 |
At Last, Good News Is On The Way!
By: Clif Droke
By now it should be abundantly clear to even the most recalcitrant pessimists that the stock market is well along its route to recovery. The internal momentum structure hasn’t looked this promising in weeks if not months.
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news.goldseek.com >> 16 April 2008 |
Forget the Headlines, Listen to the Bond Market!
By: Clif Droke
The collective message of the bond market is one that is being almost entirely ignored by the financial press. While millions of investors are caught up in the past, cowering under their beds waiting for the next financial bomb to drop, the bond market is screaming to all that will listen, “The worst is over – the economy will improve!”
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news.goldseek.com >> 7 April 2008 |
Now we know the real reasons for the credit “crisis”
By: Clif Droke
I’ve purposely kept my comments concerning the credit crisis at a minimum since it began dominating the daily news headline. My reasoning for this is because I knew the crisis was overblown and overstated in the press and that there had to be a very good reason for it. The only problem is I didn’t know exactly what the reason was.
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news.goldseek.com >> 2 April 2008 |
Supermarket Tabloids to the Rescue!
By: Clif Droke
As the interim bottoming process continues, the market’s undeniable message is that better days are ahead and with it will come an end to the endless stream of bad news and a better economic and financial market outlook. Are you prepared to take advantage of it?
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news.goldseek.com >> 23 March 2008 |
Out with the Bad News, in with the Good News!
By: Clif Droke
Investors have had to endure a tremendous onslaught of horrendous news that has shaken the financial sector to the core. One pundit likened the past few months to flying a hang glider in a hurricane. That’s how it has felt to all of us as bad news begat more bad news…which in turn drove the financial markets lower.
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news.goldseek.com >> 12 March 2008 |
George Soros and the Worst Financial Market Crisis in 60 Years
By: Clif Droke
The sentiment couldn’t be any more bearish right now. Everyone is talking about recession and more financial turmoil as if it’s inevitable. That by itself is an indication that the stock market has already priced in the worst and an interim bottoming process is well underway.
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news.goldseek.com >> 24 February 2008 |
Gold’s Hypnotic Price Target and the Outlook for PM Shares
By: Clif Droke
There is a lot of fear circulating around the Internet concerning gold/silver and the gold/silver stocks. As contrarians, that’s exactly what we like to see. It lets us know the prevailing trend (up) is still intact and that higher prices are likely to be seen before the next interim top is in.
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news.goldseek.com >> 18 February 2008 |
Technical or fundamental analysis: which one holds the key to interpreting the stock market?
By: Clif Droke
One of the best practitioners of technical analysis of the last 30-40 years, and one of my personal favorites, was Ralph Bloch. Bloch was for many years the chief market technician with Raymond James and was renown for his down-to-earth manner and “say it like it is” approach to the stock market.
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news.goldseek.com >> 25 January 2008 |
“Granville’s Golden Rule” Versus Conventional Wisdom
By: Clif Droke
“The obvious is obviously wrong” is so well known, yet so hardly heeded as advice. The statement is marvelous in its simplicity, yet so profound. Pity that more investors don’t remember this mantra, which might be called “Granville’s Golden Rule,” when confronted with the daily headlines of the mainstream press.
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news.goldseek.com >> 14 January 2008 |
Does Copper Lead The Way For Gold?
By: Clif Droke
Copper has a history of providing leading signals for the price of gold. Most notably, the copper price double-bottomed between 1999-2001 and refused to make a lower low during a time when the price of gold made a 20-year low. This leading signal in copper preceded the major turnaround in the yellow metal price in 2002 and beyond.
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news.goldseek.com >> 2 January 2008 |
Trends for 2008
By: Clif Droke
The year 2007 was marked by pessimism, doom and gloom, and a never-ending fusillade of fear. The mainstream press never tired of hypnotizing into believing the stock market would collapse, a downfall which never materialized.
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news.goldseek.com >> 24 December 2007 |
Two Tectonic Plates and “The Big One”
By: Clif Droke
We’ve all heard it before: The next major depression is expected to begin sometime around 2011-2012 and continue its ravaging impact until about 2014-2016. This belief has become so accepted among cycle theorists as to be almost a type of gospel.
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news.goldseek.com >> 6 December 2007 |
Leading Signals for Bonds, Stocks and Gold Stocks
By: Clif Droke
The run-up in bond prices has been mainly a function of the insane fear that has gripped investors by the throat since last June. As bond prices have risen dramatically over the last five-and-a-half months, the level of investor fear has risen in proportion to prove that this is no ordinary rally. It is the result of investors seeking safety from the financial storms that have hit them in recent months.
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news.goldseek.com >> 2 December 2007 |
Dow Theory Deception
By: Clif Droke
Like a raging inferno engulfing a dry prairie, a rumor has been sweeping the online financial community of late. The rumor concerns the recent low made by the Dow Jones Transportation Average and the supposedly bearish implication it has for the stock market in the coming weeks and months.
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news.goldseek.com >> 29 November 2007 |
Is the Bull Market Dead?
By: Clif Droke
After a rough six weeks, investors are shaking the cobwebs from their heads and reevaluating the stock market’s upside potential. What many had assumed would be a slam-dunk in the fourth quarter turned out to be painful and frustrating as the market declined all the way back to its August correction low.
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news.goldseek.com >> 22 November 2007 |
Baby Boomers, Generation X and Social Cycles
By: Clif Droke
Can the negative impact of the long-wave downswing be mitigated through interventionist economic policies? If so, then how? And what exactly causes the economic long-wave’s upswing and downswing to begin with?
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news.goldseek.com >> 4 November 2007 |
The Gold Price and War in the Mid East
By: Clif Droke
Now what about gold stocks? Here we are in the month of November, a time known for showing seasonal improvement of the mining stock sector. December-January are normally the best months of this seasonal time frame but sometimes November can be positive as well.
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news.goldseek.com >> 29 October 2007 |
Bubbles or Balloons?
By: Clif Droke
Can there ever be a bubble in the truest sense of the word in the broad market for major stocks and commodities? No, because there will always be a baseline demand for them regardless of the vagaries of investor sentiment and despite the occasional manias that may develop.
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news.goldseek.com >> 21 October 2007 |
Is Recession Unavoidable?
By: Clif Droke
Why did the Fed allow money to tighten like it did this year? Why were they seemingly intent on driving the economy to the brink of recession?
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news.goldseek.com >> 11 October 2007 |
A Vulnerable Market, Short-Term
By: Clif Droke
Earnings season is now upon us and with it comes the expectation of greater volatility as both upside and downside earnings surprises are the norm for this period. This especially holds true for the important cycle that is due to bottom later this month.
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news.goldseek.com >> 28 September 2007 |
Danger: The Return of ISB Syndrome!
By: Clif Droke
A highly infectious virus is spreading like wildfire across the Internet. It has done untold damage to the bank accounts and hard drives of millions. It leaves in its wake a path of destruction and a feeling of utter helplessness. You may, in fact, be one of its victims!
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news.goldseek.com >> 30 August 2007 |
Investors Hit by Big “Volatility Stick”
By: Clif Droke
The year 2007 has proven to be one of the most volatile years in recent memory. You’d have to go all the way back to 2003 when the last bear market ended to see a similar level of market volatility as measured by the Volatility Index (VXO).
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news.goldseek.com >> 26 August 2007 |
Deflation to the Rescue
By: Clif Droke
Time is the least common denominator of all things, including in the stock market. We’d all be lost if we couldn’t look at the clock throughout the day since time is our frame of reference for the day’s activities. So are the days of the calendar and so are the dominant equity market cycles.
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news.goldseek.com >> 19 August 2007 |
The Bears Get Sentimental on the Market
By: Clif Droke
The best news the market is offering us right now comes from the 20-day price oscillators. The XAU 20-day price oscillator has hit its lowest reading in several years and I can’t remember when I’ve seen it lower than it is now (see chart below). This shows the market is stretched like the proverbial rubber band at the breaking point and I can’t see it stretching much further without snapping back and giving us an oversold rally and probably one lasting several days.
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news.goldseek.com >> 13 August 2007 |
Psyched Out: The Media and Market Bottoms
By: Clif Droke
I received quite a few e-mails last week asking if I had changed my bullish market stance based on the price action of the past few days. My response is “why”? The bottoming activity of the last several days is almost identical to that of the bottom following the late February panic sell-off and that one ended with the S&P 500 going on to retrace its losses and then making a higher high.
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news.goldseek.com >> 3 August 2007 |
Panic in the Streets, Fear in the Air!
By: Clif Droke
Did you hear that sound last week? That was the collective sound of millions of retail traders and investors screaming in fear and running, not walking, to the nearest bomb shelter as the stock market put in its internal low. Once again the ever-growing fear of the Main Street masses has led to capitulation at what looks to be another important stock market bottom in the making.
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news.goldseek.com >> 26 July 2007 |
An Examination of the Long-Term Kress Cycles
By: Clif Droke
In this installment we’ll look at the components of the Kress yearly cycles and how they influence stock market trends over the longer-term. We’ll also look at how these cycles can help keep you on the right side of the market. Of equal importance we’ll discuss the limitations of cycle analysis which will help us avoid pitfalls that most cycle analysts seem to fall into.
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news.goldseek.com >> 23 July 2007 |
How Big Is The Oil Supply Problem?
By: Clif Droke
How big of a problem is the oil supply situation? The latest report from the International Energy Agency warns that the world will face an oil crunch in five years. IEA said that supply was falling faster than expected in major producing areas while consumption is accelerating thanks to strong economic growth in emerging countries.
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news.goldseek.com >> 19 July 2007 |
An Economic Recession?
By: Clif Droke
Turning our attention to the precious metals market, the spot gold index closed on Wednesday, July 18, at a recent rally high of $672. As we looked at last week, the 10-month rate of change indicator for gold has reached a normal, healthy reading and is reflecting a somewhat “oversold” internal condition. This is an ideal backdrop for a gold rally.
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news.goldseek.com >> 15 July 2007 |
The Outlook For Gold, Stocks And Global Inflation
By: Clif Droke
In last week’s commentary I wrote that “When bearish headlines show up on the editorial page it heightens the significance of the fear and is always bullish for stocks.” This statement was driven home by the expansion in negative and fear-laden news headlines that showed up in the leading financial papers even as the stock market made new highs this past week.
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news.goldseek.com >> 6 July 2007 |
“Bombing Support” In the Stock Market Continues
By: Clif Droke
Fear has certainly been the dominant themes of the financial markets this year. One proof of that is the record short interest across many different market sectors (including the leading indicator semiconductors). Another proof is found in the headlines of newspapers all over the country as one pessimistic and fearful headline follows another.
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news.goldseek.com >> 1 July 2007 |
Bring on the Bubbles!
By: Clif Droke
Everywhere we turn it seems we keep hearing of some bubble or another that threatens to engulf our country and hurl us headlong into a major financial catastrophe. Around every corner there lurks a bubble in the wings just waiting to be popped…and make no mistake about it, it *will* take you and your life savings with it! (At least that’s what the bubble-mongers in the financial media would have you believe.)
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news.goldseek.com >> 24 June 2007 |
Will The Bond Market Break The Camel’s Back?
By: Clif Droke
“Bond shockwaves to ripple through U.S.” was the big, bold headline that greeted readers of the Financial Times newspaper following the recent bond sell-off and corresponding rise in yields. “A sell-off in the financial markets this week could have serious implications for the whole economy, says Krishna Guha.” Pretty dramatic stuff to say the least. But that’s to be expected as the news media uses the latest financial “crisis of the week” to scare the average investor into believing financial collapse is imminent.
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news.goldseek.com >> 10 June 2007 |
The Real Reason For High Gas Prices
By: Clif Droke
A major news service ran a couple of feature stories on the Internet this week on the topic of high gas prices. Although different in the details, it was substantially similar to articles they’ve run off and on over the past two years. This particular article seems to appear whenever gas prices get so high that Americans start grumbling and passing around that chain e-mail about boycotting ExxonMobil.
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news.goldseek.com >> 5 June 2007 |
A Look At PAAS And The Silver Stock Sector
By: Clif Droke
It has been a rough past few weeks for the silver stocks, with some taking more of a hit than others. A few “name” stocks like Coeur d’Alene (CDE) have born the full brunt of the bears’ fury while other stocks have held up quite well and some have even gone on to make new highs in spite of the recent correction. We’ll take a look at some of these stocks in this report.
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news.goldseek.com >> 3 June 2007 |
Send In The Clowns By All Means!
By: Clif Droke
The bull market in stocks continues, but to hear various exponents of the bearish persuasion talk, you’d think the party was ending right now. At least that’s the impression I get reading some of their weekly rants on various Internet sites.
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news.goldseek.com >> 29 May 2007 |
The Four Cylinders of Economic Growth
By: Clif Droke
Making economic predictions has always been a popular pastime, and never so more than today. We all fancy ourselves armchair economists, and why not, with the stakes higher than ever. Our very livelihoods are to a large extent tied up in the future direction of the economy. With so much at stake now and in the year ahead, the topic of economic growth has never been more relevant.
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news.goldseek.com >> 22 May 2007 |
The Dollar Isn’t Dead Yet!
By: Clif Droke
To hear the talk from the mainstream press you’d think the dollar’s demise was imminent. Everyday is becoming a repetition of a theme that we’ve actually been hearing off and on since 2004, namely, the collapse of the U.S. dollar. But as we’ve chronicled here many times in the past, whenever the bearish factor gets a little too loud on the dollar’s weakness, a period of stability and/or strength begins. That’s exactly the point along the cycle the dollar is in now.
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news.goldseek.com >> 17 May 2007 |
Recipe for a Stock Market Crash
By: Clif Droke
Over the past few days I’ve received quite a few nervous inquiries from investors who worry about the potential for the stock market to crash sometimes between now and year end. Part of this fear is founded on what is known as the Year Seven Phenomenon, which says that the seventh year of the decade usually sees a substantial stock market decline or even a crash, a ‘la 1987 and 1997.
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news.goldseek.com >> 10 May 2007 |
Oh, the fear of it all!
By: Clif Droke
So here we are four years into the bull market and hardly a soul on Main Street has bought into it. Everywhere we see fear, worry, pessimism and a latent feeling that everything is going to unwind at any minute. How did we go from a nation of super-optimists 10 years ago to a nation of fear-laden bears today?
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news.goldseek.com >> 20 April 2007 |
Oil and the Dollar Under the Microscope
By: Clif Droke
Will the U.S. dollar experience a catastrophic collapse? Books and articles galore have been showered upon the public in which the writers purvey a coming dollar crash, a scenario which they say will destroy the U.S. economy as well as render the dollar a has-been among the major world currencies. Could such an event actually transpire in 2007?
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news.goldseek.com >> 22 March 2007 |
Stock market, natural resource recovery continues
By: Clif Droke
The market indicated its super-oversold condition to us soon after the Feb. 27 sell-off based on volume and put/call ratio indications. The bottom has since been confirmed and Wednesday witnessed the big rally day everyone has been waiting for. The market rewarded our patience on Wednesday by rallying 24 points, or 1.71%, as measured by the S&P 500 index (SPX).
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news.goldseek.com >> 15 March 2007 |
Financial Fiascos Everywhere!
By: Clif Droke
The gold and silver mining stocks as a group have pretty much performed in line with the broad market since the late February correction with quite a few relative strength out-performers among the PM stocks. There are still some attractive stocks among the gold and silvers despite the sharp correction in the XAU and HUI indices recently, and of course the actual metals have held up despite the across-the-board weakness. The dominant interim momentum indicator for the gold and silver stocks is still rising and hasn’t reversed yet, which should add to the positive outlook for the relative strength stocks within the sector.
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news.goldseek.com >> 9 March 2007 |
A Major Crash…or a Major Bottom?
By: Clif Droke
On Tuesday, Feb. 27, the stock market experienced its biggest 1-day tumble since 2001. That it created quite an impression on the minds of millions of investors is undisputed. What is disputed, though, is whether this sharp decline represented a needed correction of an ongoing intermediate-term bull market…or perhaps the start of a major bear market? The debate continues with everyone having a different take on the matter. But the market itself is giving clear and decisive readings as to which side of the argument is likely correct.
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news.goldseek.com >> 23 February 2007 |
Gold Stocks Versus Oil Stocks in the Near Term
By: Clif Droke
The AMEX Gold Bugs Index (HUI) closed 0.50% higher on Thursday, Feb. 22, to finish the day at 356.34 while the XAU was 0.16% higher at 146.05. The spot gold index closed at $379 while spot silver closed Thursday at $14.22.
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news.goldseek.com >> 16 February 2007 |
The Cult of the Bear
By: Clif Droke
A gradual procession of super bears has been quietly admitting they’ve been wrong in their bearish assessment of the stock market. As the major stock market indices continue to push to higher highs and as market internals continue to reflect a stellar market condition, even the most stubborn of bearish traders and market commentators have been forced to reconsider their positions. Slowly, and with little fanfare, they’ve been covering short positions.
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news.goldseek.com >> 7 February 2007 |
The Natural Resource Stocks in February
By: Clif Droke
Gold and silver stocks refuse to give up in spite of overhead supply from the December top and now we’re seeing even some of the move actively traded junior mines are starting to rally as the upward bias in gold stock internal momentum we’ve talked about the last several weeks makes its presence known throughout the sector.
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news.goldseek.com >> 28 January 2007 |
A Look at the Short-Term Inflationary Trends
By: Clif Droke
In reviewing the gold/silver stock sector each day we look at overbought/oversold indications based on price and volume oscillators. We also look at moving averages and support/resistance as well as seasonal/cyclical influences. But by far the most important aspect of my technical work in analyzing the gold stocks is internal momentum, namely the GS HILMO (hi-lo momentum) indicators.
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news.goldseek.com >> 22 January 2007 |
The Only Cycles That Really Matter
By: Clif Droke
Theories of periodicity (cycles) in the stock market are as intriguing as they are controversial. The subject of equity market cycles has been discussed at length over the past 60 years with precious little in the way of agreement among cyclists as to what exactly constitutes a cycle, let alone which cycles are key.
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news.goldseek.com >> 15 January 2007 |
Liquidity and the Global Bull Market of 2007
By: Clif Droke
If 2005 and 2006 were collectively known as the “Years of Fear” then 2007 will probably be known as the year that fear dissipates, at least long enough to encourage the record amounts of sidelined capital back into the equities market. Extreme fear always gives way to extreme greed and the penultimate manifestation of greed is a spike in stock prices in which the public is heavily participating. We haven’t yet arrived at that point but when we do we’ll know the next market top is nigh at hand. Until then, investors should stay bullish and remain flexible to take advantage of the many opportunities the market presents in 2007.
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news.goldseek.com >> 7 January 2007 |
Oil and gas: What’s the story for 2007?
By: Clif Droke
It’s funny how ever bull market has to have a fundamental story wrapped around it before it can be sold for public consumption. Much like a candy bar at a convenience store, a bull market in stocks or commodities is always packaged with an enticing wrapper designed to lure prospective buyers and ensure its quality to the consumer.
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news.goldseek.com >> 2 January 2007 |
Leading Indicators Tell Us What to Expect in 2007
By: Clif Droke
It has been several years since this many bullish technical and fundamental factors have conspired to point to a bull market for stocks as we approach the start of a new year. Just listing them all would fill up several reports. The diminishing supply of stocks, persistent bearish investor sentiment, increasing liquidity, record corporate cash, and record valuation are just some of the reasons why the months ahead should be bullish for stocks.