news.goldseek.com >> 10 May 2012

A tale of two stocks…and two economies
By: Clif Droke
Although IAU on Tuesday made its lowest close since the first trading day of 2012, the relative strength line didn’t go lower. This is a small improvement to be sure, but a positive step in the right direction in any case. This early sign of relative strength isn’t good enough to hang our hat on and issue a buy signal for gold, but it does suggest that given perhaps a few more weeks, the gold market could be strong enough to begin a new bull run.

news.goldseek.com >> 27 April 2012

Final high 2012 for stocks, economy
By: Clif Droke
It’s amazing sometimes how much difference a year can make on investor psychology. For most of last year investors worried incessantly about a potential “double dip” U.S. recession and the possibility of another worldwide credit crisis beginning in Europe.

news.goldseek.com >> 5 April 2012

The coming China super crisis
By: Clif Droke
The big X-factor for the stock market in the coming months will clearly be China. During periods when any of the major weekly or yearly cycles are bottoming and the market is vulnerable to a correction, there’s always a news headline event that serves as a scapegoat for the market’s weakness. Last year the scapegoat was Greece and the eurozone debt crisis. This year the void will be filled by China’s slowing economy.

news.goldseek.com >> 23 March 2012

When central banks fail
By: Clif Droke
Ben Bernanke’s smiling face on the cover of the April issue of The Atlantic is a testimony to how short America’s collective memory is. While the Fed chief is feted as the savior of the global economy thanks to his monetary policy genius, it’s apparent how quickly many have forgotten how his sluggish response to the brewing credit storm in 2006-2007 brought the U.S. to the edge of the abyss.

news.goldseek.com >> 14 March 2012

Rising fuel costs and the next Revolution
By: Clif Droke
Lost amid the hoopla after the Dow recently achieved a milestone in closing above the psychologically important 13,000 barrier is another, more significant benchmark. Gasoline prices hit a record seasonal high this week. The average price of gasoline across the country is now $3.74, the highest it’s ever been at this time of year.

news.goldseek.com >> 2 March 2012

A Golden Shakeout
By: Clif Droke
Mining shares and the precious metals were hard hit on Wednesday after Fed Chairman Bernanke appeared before Congress. Bernanke gave his view on the U.S. economic outlook during and offered a mixed message. He touted the recovery in the job market while warning that unless growth accelerated, the unemployment rate wouldn’t continue to drop.

news.goldseek.com >> 27 February 2012

Is the corporate earnings recovery a deception?
By: Clif Droke
The market has come a long way since October when the price low was established in the major stock averages. It has come even further when compared to its March 2009 bear market low. To put the market recovery into perspective, for the three years since the recovery began in ’09 until now, the S&P 500 (SPX) has gained over 100%. For the nearly two years since the July 2010 low, the SPX has gained 85%. For the six month’s since last October’s low, the SPX has gained 9%.

news.goldseek.com >> 17 February 2012

Gold and the next Great War
By: Clif Droke
Let’s turn our attention to a cycle which we’ve rarely discussed over the years. The Kress 24-year cycle is one of the components of the 120-year cycle series which is scheduled to bottom in 2014. The 24-year cycle tends to get eclipsed by the longer-term cycles like the 40-year and 60-year cycles (both of which have a major impact on equity prices and the economy). But the 24-year cycle takes on a special significance all on its own: it’s the cycle of war.

news.goldseek.com >> 12 February 2012

The return of volatility
By: Clif Droke
To say that complacency has reigned in the last few months is an understatement. Volatility as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has fallen 60% since October and 20% since the start of 2012. To put into context just how much volatility has fallen since the latest rally kicked off in October, the 10-year chart of the S&P 100 Volatility Index (VXO) is shown below. The VXO is an excellent frame of reference for the absence of widespread fear in this market in recent months. As you can see, volatility is approaching historically low levels not seen since before the credit crisis began.

news.goldseek.com >> 5 February 2012

Is the U.S. “decoupling” from the European crisis?
By: Clif Droke
Selling pressure earlier in the week gave way to strong demand for equities as concerns over the European debt crisis have been moved to the backburner. Investors have instead been focusing on the improved U.S. economic and employment picture.

news.goldseek.com >> 16 January 2012

Will gold regain its safe haven status in 2012?
By: Clif Droke
Last year was an eventful one for the gold market. The yellow metal was up 10 percent in 2011 for its 11th consecutive annual gain. But despite making an all-time high on Sept. 5 at $1,900/oz. gold finished the year down 18 percent from that high. Gold entered a bear market in late 2011 which was confirmed by gold’s closing below its historically significant 30-week moving average. This doesn’t happen very often which indicates the technical significance of the event. The last time gold violated its 30-week MA was in 2008 during the credit crisis and it hasn’t happened since then as you can see in the following chart.

news.goldseek.com >> 8 January 2012

The dueling forces of 2012
By: Clif Droke
The cyclical bull market recovery which began in March 2009 was powerful in its first year, moderately strong in 2010 and visibly weakened by the end of 2011. Thus we have the pattern of a recovery which is losing internal force with each passing year. The start of a New Year heralds some interesting possibilities for the coming 12 months, which we’ll discuss in this commentary.

news.goldseek.com >> 14 December 2011

Credit crisis part 2 or another reprieve?
By: Clif Droke
Recent investor disappointment is being blamed on the Federal Reserve and the fact that it didn’t announce another round of stimulus at its latest meeting. Recent market action can also be chalked up to a continuation of the lingering disappointment from last week’s EU summit meeting. Participants are upset that the European Central Bank (ECB) refuses to engage in a major bond buying program to provide liquidity and bolster investor confidence.

news.goldseek.com >> 5 December 2011

Economic Armageddon: 2012 or 2013?
By: Clif Droke
In his latest report, Samuel Kress of SineScope reviewed the 120-year cycle and broke it down into its constituent cycles. For the sake of our long time readers, I’m providing my own breakdown of the 120-year cycle and its effects on the past, present and future of the financial market and economy.

news.goldseek.com >> 28 November 2011

The war between creditors and debtors
By: Clif Droke
The news headlines have been fixated on the debt drama unfolding in Europe. It’s important that we give some thought to this since it paves the groundwork for the upcoming 120-year cycle bottom in 2014 and will increasingly play a bigger role in the financial market in 2012 and beyond.

news.goldseek.com >> 9 November 2011

Gold rebuilds the wall of worry
By: Clif Droke
Gold has come into its own since October as traders continue to hang on every word coming out of Europe. Investors have breathed a collective sign of relief in recent days as Europe’s financial ministers plan to unveil a new rescue fund next month. In the meanwhile Italy and Greece are left to deal with their own debt crises until then. Greece must provide written acceptance of bailout terms before it receives its next 8 billion euro loan installment.

news.goldseek.com >> 7 November 2011

Long-term cycles vs. short-term market potential
By: Clif Droke
At any given time the position of the weekly cycles must be taken into account when evaluating the stock market. These cycles have a greater impact on the near-term direction of the stock market than the yearly cycles unless the yearly cycles happen to be bottoming (as with the 6-year cycle bottom in late 2008). As the “hard down” phase of any cycle is the final 10% of the cycle’s duration, the 120-year cycle has been in its final “hard down” phase since 2002.

news.goldseek.com >> 31 October 2011

Is the consumer spending surge a “dance of death”?
By: Clif Droke
The latest economic headline came as a surprise to the pundits, though it actually makes perfect sense from a psychological standpoint. On Friday the Associated Press informed us of “Americans spending more with income almost flat,” per the headline. At first glance this seems almost counterintuitive, yet the sub-heading of this A.P. story put it into perspective: “Americans find tiny returns on savings and decide to spend.”

news.goldseek.com >> 24 October 2011

October Has Killed Another Bear
By: Clif Droke
October has a tendency to be a “bear killer.” That is, in years when the stock market has been in decline heading into October, the month of October more often than not reverses the decline, at least temporarily. In the years that I’ve been writing a financial newsletter this was true in the following Octobers: 1998, 1999, 2001, 2002 and 2005.

news.goldseek.com >> 21 October 2011

Why the recession forecasters are wrong (for now)
By: Clif Droke
Speculation over the direction of the economy continues to take center stage. With the presidential election coming up in 2012, the economy will undoubtedly be the central issue on the campaign trail and will receive even more attention than it has up until now. Many analysts have made waves lately in forecasting a “double dip” recession, with at least a couple of high profile analysts claiming the recession has already arrived.

news.goldseek.com >> 7 October 2011

Can a global stimulus stop deflation?
By: Clif Droke
With the long-term bull market in gold and mining stocks in full swing, there exist several fantastic opportunities for capturing profits and maximizing gains in the precious metals arena. Yet a common complaint is that small-to-medium sized traders have a hard time knowing when to buy and when to take profits. It doesn’t matter when so many pundits dispense conflicting advice in the financial media. This amounts to “analysis into paralysis” and results in the typical investor being unable to “pull the trigger” on a trade when the right time comes to buy.

news.goldseek.com >> 2 October 2011

The Stock Market Smells Deflation
By: Clif Droke
In previous commentaries we’ve talked about how the 6-year cycle is scheduled to peak around Oct. 1. That now appears to be all but certain following the last few trading sessions. Although the cycle has a 1-2 week standard deviation (plus or minus), it appears that it peaked on scheduled last week and that the stock market has lost the last remaining cyclical support it had throughout most of September.

news.goldseek.com >> 23 September 2011

Crisis High 2011 and the Next Credit Crash
By: Clif Droke
The year 2011 is in many ways a Year of Destiny. The year-to-date has seen revolutions in the mid East, natural disasters in the U.S. and globally, a debt crisis in Europe and the potential of another economic recession in the U.S. On the financial front the year 2011 has also brought on the beginnings of a new bear market which should carry us into the fateful year 2014 when the dominant long-term 120-year cycle bottoms.

news.goldseek.com >> 19 September 2011

Another Round of Consumer Price Increases on the Way
By: Clif Droke
The ongoing economic depression has the middle class behind the proverbial eight ball. Not only has it resulted in the deflation of housing values but the stimulus efforts of the last two years have resulted in increased retail prices. This is one of the important signs that the depression has a lot longer to run, for until we see a substantial drop in consumer prices deflation’s work isn’t done.

news.goldseek.com >> 12 September 2011

In A Year of Massive Change, Gold’s Status Remains Unchanged
By: Clif Droke
The year 2011 has been a tumultuous one for market participants and non-participants alike. In just the last few months we’ve witnessed record extremes in the weather in the U.S., revolutions in the mid East region and exceptionally high levels of volatility in global financial markets.

news.goldseek.com >> 30 August 2011

The 6-year Cycle Peak Is Near
By: Clif Droke
In just a few weeks the Kress 6-year cycle will peak. What transpires in the financial market in the weeks and months following this important event will be partly determined by the reactive policies of the central bank. But in the longer-term scheme of things, even the Fed is powerless to stop the events that will increase in intensity beginning next year and into the year 2014.

news.goldseek.com >> 18 August 2011

Economists refuse to recognize the New Great Depression
By: Clif Droke
The recent financial slump has caused economists to take stock of the possibility of a “double dip” recession. Most of them, however, won’t admit that the economic contraction which began in late 2007 is still underway and, worse still, has a few more years to run according to the Kress cycles. In this commentary we’ll address this issue and have a look at where the cycles are leading the financial market and the economy.

news.goldseek.com >> 5 August 2011

Gold and Market Volatility
By: Clif Droke
The one constant this year has been market volatility. Stock market volatility, including for the mining stocks, has waxed and waned throughout 2011 but has been recurrent more this year than in the previous two years. After a brief period of dormancy, volatility has once again been on the rise. We’ll discuss the implications of this volatility increase for stocks as well as the gold price in this report.

news.goldseek.com >> 1 August 2011

The Next Leg of the Housing Bear Market Has Begun
By: Clif Droke
Now that the latest round of quantitative easing (QE) has ended, it’s time to take stock of whether inflation or deflation is likely to gain the upper hand going forward. The Fed’s monetary stimulus efforts of the last three years have done nothing to help what is arguably the biggest symptom of long-term deflation, namely the housing market. It’s important to recall that the final “hard down” portion of the 60-year cycle of inflation/deflation cycle began with a collapse of real estate prices. The real estate bear market has been the chief evidence of deflation in the U.S. for the housing market prior to the crash represented the biggest form of savings for most Americans.

news.goldseek.com >> 27 July 2011

Another Testament to Gold’s Long-Term Value
By: Clif Droke
Recently a news item was brought to my attention which underscores the long-term significance of gold as an investment. A 500-year-old treasure has been discovered in a Hindu temple with approximately $20 billion. The treasure consists mainly of gold and precious stones.

news.goldseek.com >> 21 July 2011

The Debt Crisis and the War Cycle
By: Clif Droke and Richard Hoskins
Many books have been written in recent years on the problems facing us due to our nation’s enormous debt. Indeed, many more could be written before the full scope of the debt problem and its consequences have been exhausted. One of the best books I’ve read which describes the debt problem in its simplest and most fundamental terms was written by one Richard Hoskins, entitled War Cycles/Peace Cycles.

news.goldseek.com >> 17 July 2011

How Gold Performs In Deflation
By: Clif Droke
Despite the undue attention that has been paid to the chimera of inflation this year, it should be clear by now that deflation is the far greater structural problem. One clue that deflation, not inflation, is the main issue can be seen in the biggest form of savings and investment among the U.S. middle class, namely real estate.

news.goldseek.com >> 13 July 2011

A Long Wave Expert Shares His “Big Picture” Outlook
By: Clif Droke and David Knox Barker
Barker recently shares with me his thoughts on what he sees ahead for the United States and the emerging markets in terms of the inflation/deflation scenario. He also discussed the debt crisis, China, and the oil price outlook among other topics of interest. What follows is the transcript of that interview.

news.goldseek.com >> 11 July 2011

Has The 120-Year Cycle Bottomed Early?
By: Clif Droke
In light of the impressive equities market rally from 2009 through 2011, some are wondering if perhaps the economic long wave has bottomed early. I recently received an email asking a question that is relevant to our discussion. He writes, “Suppose the big 120-year cycle hit a few years early, which for a cycle this long would certainly be possible. Perhaps the March 2009 low was the deflationary 120-year cycle low point, and the bull market just carries on for several more years. Is this possible?”

news.goldseek.com >> 27 June 2011

Deflation by Dictatorship
By: Clif Droke
There are two major considerations for the nation’s economic and financial health as we enter the second half of 2011. Each can be addressed in the form of a question: 1.) Will the Federal Reserve embark on a third attempt at stimulating economic recovery through money printing; and 2.) Has the cyclical bull market that began in March 2009 peaked, and further, what will happen to the financial market once the 6-year cycle peaks in October? We’ll attempt to answer both of these questions in the following commentary.

news.goldseek.com >> 17 June 2011

Clif Droke: Gold, the Investor Safe Haven du Jour
By: Clif Droke
Regardless of whether the economic-Armageddon scenario comes to fruition, there are several reasons gold will maintain its long-term bull market, which began at the turn of this century. If you believe the government will continue debasing the U.S. dollar, the gold price will benefit from this debasement policy. If, on the other hand, you believe the economic, Kondratiev winter of the 60-year cycle will accelerate in the next few years, history has proven conclusively that gold should once again be the safe haven du jour for investors seeking asset protection. Armageddon or not, gold's long-term prospects are still promising.

news.goldseek.com >> 13 June 2011

The Five Stages of the Kress Cycle Tsunami
By: Clif Droke
Forgotten in the avalanche of economic headlines in recent weeks is the fact that the housing market hit a new low. In the latest reporting month the national housing index hit a new low, falling below the previous low from April 2009. This should be prompting a nationwide debate in the press as to whether a new down leg in the housing market lies ahead. Instead, all we hear is crickets.

news.goldseek.com >> 5 June 2011

A Forward and Backward Look at the Cycles For 2011
By: Clif Droke
Let’s take a step back and examine the intermediate-term outlook for 2011 based on some observations we made earlier this year. Earlier we discussed the outlook for 2011 based on an “echo analysis” of the Kress cycles. In January, Ned Davis Research produced a chart which combined the stock market’s 1-year, 4-year and 10-year tendencies. This composite chart suggested that most of this year’s gains will occur in the first half of the year. Our own composite work based on the Kress cycle “echo” phenomenon also suggested that the stock market could make a significant peak in the April-May time frame and that most of the market’s gains would be made in the first half of 2011.

news.goldseek.com >> 27 May 2011

A Look at the Coming 6-Year Cycle Peak
By: Clif Droke
The year 2011 to date has seen its share of ups and downs in the financial market, yet nothing like the volatility of 2010 has made its appearance. With an important long-term yearly cycle scheduled to peak in just a few months, this would be a good time to look ahead as we try to discern what the balance of the year will bring.

news.goldseek.com >> 9 May 2011

A Policy-Driven Silver Crash
By: Clif Droke
Silver has once again stolen the investment market spotlight. Margin requirements for silver trading rose 84 percent last week, which prompted a major sell-off. Silver posted its worst four-day drop since 1980 and was down more than 25% after the CME Group raised the costs for investors to trade the metal four consecutive times within a week.

news.goldseek.com >> 2 May 2011

Another sign QE2 is undermining the economic recovery
By: Clif Droke
It has long been my position that the peaking of the 6-year cycle scheduled for around the beginning of October this year will likely see the end of the recovery. The Fed ultimately won’t be able to halt the underlying forces of long-wave deflation but it can have a short-term impact on mitigating deflation, which is what we’re witnessing now in the commodities market. Unfortunately the short-term impact is also creating a potentially catastrophic distortion on retail prices that will ultimately inflict severe economic damage before deflation makes its presence known once again.

news.goldseek.com >> 25 April 2011

Silver Shorts Feel the Burn
By: Clif Droke
Even the normally level-headed market technicians who write for the popular financial blogs apparently fell for the bearish rumor on silver last week. One writer for the popular Seeking Alpha web site called for a 20% correction in the silver price. He based this forecast on the fact that the silver price was dramatically over-extended from the 200-day moving average. The lesson here again is that’s extremely dangerous to short an established uptrend based on scanty technical evidence. Unless there is an extremely compelling (and hopefully non-publicized) reason for doing so, the best policy is to refrain from selling short in a bull market.

news.goldseek.com >> 5 April 2011

A Look at Gold’s Long-Term Outlook
By: Clif Droke
Let’s step back for a moment and take a look at the big picture. Although the primary focus of traders should be on the short-term technical outlook for gold, silver and mining stocks, it’s good to have a good idea of where the precious metals are likely headed in the 3-4 year out look.

news.goldseek.com >> 30 March 2011

Another Bubble That Breaks the World?
By: Clif Droke
In 1931 a financial writer named Garet Garrett wrote the now classic book, “A Bubble That Broke the World.” Garrett’s contention was that the Great Crash of 1929 was made possible by the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Eighty years later another Fed-induced crisis is forming which, if allowed to continue, threatens to again break the back of the U.S. economy.

news.goldseek.com >> 21 March 2011

Why Deflation Will Torpedo the Economic Recovery
By: Clif Droke
The rising price of food and fuel is garnering more and more attention in the economic news headlines. There’s a good reason for this since a continued increase in the oil price could easily upset the economic recovery and send the U.S. economy tumbling back into recession. It could also have an adverse impact on the financial market and not surprisingly, analysts are already beginning to draw parallels between today’s stock market and the one of 2008, which was hurt by (among other things) a record high oil price.

news.goldseek.com >> 10 March 2011

The Coming Global Commodities Crisis
By: Clif Droke
The last few weeks has seen a startling rise in fuel and food prices. This has been a key contributor to the political and economic instability overseas; it’s also paving the way for an even bigger crisis for the U.S. and the world economy by 2012.

news.goldseek.com >> 8 March 2011

Who’s Going to Regulate the Regulators?
By: Clif Droke
The single most dominant theme among political commentators is the belief that government should do something – anything – to fix the financial system. Regardless of party affiliation, there is a near universal agreement that government should be charged with the task of regulating the financial realm in order to prevent another catastrophe.

news.goldseek.com >> 2 March 2011

A No-Win Situation for the Fed
By: Clif Droke
A situation is developing the global markets which threatens to undo the recovery of the past two years. The price spikes in fuel and especially agriculture prices is the Achilles’ heel of the recovery and may well serve as its death knell before the year is through.

news.goldseek.com >> 15 February 2011

Crisis High 2011
By: Clif Droke
After two years of issuing “sell” ratings on equities and making bearish pronouncements on the year-ahead economic outlook, Wall Street has finally turned bullish again. Recent analyst polls reveal the consensus outlook for 2011 is for another year of double-digit stock market gains. Even stalwart bears are starting to sound a more optimistic note on the prospects for continued economic recovery in 2011 and beyond.

news.goldseek.com >> 2 February 2011

A Resumption of the Housing Decline In 2011
By: Clif Droke
An oft-repeated maxim is that real estate is one of the best long-term investments. For the better part of the last 60 years or so this certainly held true. In a typical “long wave” or 60-year Kress cycle, real estate benefits almost from the start of the inflationary leg of the long wave and prices tend to increase even after the 60-year cycle of inflation/deflation peaks, and real estate prices can continue to increase in the ensuing dis-inflationary years of the cycle. It’s mainly during the final “hard down” part of the cycle -- which is defined as the final 8-12% of the cycle -- that the real estate market struggles under the weight of deflation.

news.goldseek.com >> 28 January 2011

Is The Fed Taking The Recovery Too Far, Too Fast?
By: Clif Droke
The latest round of economic numbers continues to impress Wall Street and is keeping hopes of a continued economic recovery alive. Many observers question, however, if perhaps the Fed is taking the recovery too far, too fast.

news.goldseek.com >> 19 January 2011

An Economic Recovery unto Death
By: Clif Droke
In the Bible there is a reference to a “sin unto death.” In the realm of U.S. economic policy a situation is developing that could easily lead to a “death” of the current recovery. Ironically, this brewing economic destruction is springing from the same policies that are responsible for the recovery (call it a “recovery unto death”). These policies are supposed to lead the U.S. out of recession and into a “new tomorrow” but as we’ll discuss here, the end result is likely to be something far short of what policy leaders envision.

news.goldseek.com >> 13 January 2011

Possibilities for 2011
By: Clif Droke
Wall Street seems particularly giddy entering the New Year, and for good reason: the stock market has had its best two-year performance since 1932. Retail investors are also beginning to shed their bear suits and slowly embrace a bullish posture. For the month of December 2010, a total of $14.9 billion moved out of bond funds while stock funds saw a $5.5 billion net inflow.

news.goldseek.com >> 31 December 2010

Wall Street’s Push to Bring Back the Public
By: Clif Droke
Investors have been liquidating bonds in the last few weeks which begs the question why. Are investors liquidating bonds in order to move cash back into stocks and other risk assets? Or is that money going under the mattress? On that score a recent news article provides a most interesting backdrop to this question.

news.goldseek.com >> 13 December 2010

Inflation, Deflation And The Year Ahead
By: Clif Droke
The inflation versus deflation debate has raged for years but since the credit crisis the debate has become highly politicized. If the credit crisis taught us anything it is that the risk of deflation far outweighs that of inflation. Yet there is an entrenched view emerging in political circles that is actively opposed to the government’s attempts at re-inflating the economy following the deflationary collapse of 2008.

news.goldseek.com >> 6 December 2010

Yields: The Dominant Theme for 2011
By: Clif Droke
After the bottom of the 4-year cycle in September the stock market began what has been described, in the words of Samuel J. Kress, “the final cyclical bull market of the post-World War 2 expansionary era.” The months ahead could well be the last chance for individuals to prepare for the coming “winter” phase of the deflationary 60-year cycle which enters its final “hard down” phase in 2012 and bottoms in 2014.

news.goldseek.com >> 23 November 2010

A Different Kind of Deflation
By: Clif Droke
There’s a wealth of wisdom to be found in ancient Chinese proverbs. Not uncommonly one can find answers to the most complex problems today by reading the simple yet elegant epigrams found in any collection of ancient sayings.

news.goldseek.com >> 7 November 2010

The Jessie Livermore Stock Market
By: Clif Droke
The legend and romance surrounding the famed stock plunger Jessie Livermore has long held a fascination among traders. Livermore has become somewhat of a cult in recent years and there are several books that purport to reveal his secrets for making a fortune in the stock market. None of them can hold a candle to the book which Livermore himself commissioned (written by journalist Edwin LeFevre) entitled Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.

news.goldseek.com >> 2 November 2010

The Best Way to Participate in Long-Term Gold Bull Market
By: Clif Droke
The gold price recently made a new high amid widespread concern over weakness in the U.S. dollar. The gold rally has been driven by strong global demand among investors seeking a safe haven. Demand has been driven mainly by uncertainty over the economic outlook, as investors continue to recover from the fallout of the financial crisis two years ago.

news.goldseek.com >> 31 October 2010

America’s Long Wave Versus the Global Long Wave
By: Clif Droke
The stock market has always been a dynamic affair but until the turn of the century 10 years ago, there were always a few tried-and-true relationships you could always count on. For instance, in the 20th century it was almost always true that if the broad market as reflected by the Dow or the S&P was rallying and the gold and oil stocks were also rallying, the rise in the broad market was viewed as suspect and in most cases would soon reverse. It was said that “What’s good for gold/oil is bad for stocks.” Then along came the bull market of 2003-2007, which completely blew that relationship out of the water

news.goldseek.com >> 22 October 2010

The Quantitative Easing Guessing Game
By: Clif Droke
The headline discussion in the financial press of late has been about the recently announced quantitative easing program that the Federal Reserve has said it will undertake in order to further stimulate the economy. Financial commentators have bled their pens dry in speculating what impact the so-called “QE2” will have on stock and commodity prices.

news.goldseek.com >> 6 October 2010

Does A Dollar Crash Loom?
By: Clif Droke
Even if you’re not one who tracks currency values, you just knew the dollar was on the ropes again if you bothered to check your mail box. Whenever the dollar shows any sustained weakness the newsletter publishers will send out bulk mail advertisements with sensational headlines like, “Dollar Crash Looms!” or “The Dollar Will Soon Be Devalued and Replaced.” After receiving two such mailings on the same day last week, it was obvious to me what the investor sentiment was like on the greenback.

news.goldseek.com >> 27 September 2010

The Global Economy and the 4-Year Cycle
By: Clif Droke
One of the biggest fears underscoring the financial market since the 2008 credit crisis has been global economic growth. Investors have worried that a global economic slowdown would all but derail what little economic momentum the U.S. has experienced since the recovery started in March 2009.

news.goldseek.com >> 23 September 2010

A Look at the Stock Market Cycles
By: Clif Droke
Now that we’re only two weeks or less away from the 4-year cycle bottom, it’s time to start thinking about the year-ahead outlook and what the coming months may bring. This year has been a rough one in patches due in no little measure to the influence to the 4-year down cycle.

news.goldseek.com >> 15 September 2010

Silver Steals Some Thunder From Gold
By: Clif Droke
Throughout the last few weeks of summer there has been a slow, steady migration into silver as an investment. Investor worries over the state of the global economy have helped silver gain traction in the face of a low-volume stock market this summer. The white metal has built some fairly strong forward momentum this summer as a secondary safe haven among investors who desire the protection of precious metals without the heftier price tag of the yellow metal.

news.goldseek.com >> 13 September 2010

Is Gold Getting Too Much Media Attention?
By: Clif Droke
After a brief decline in July, gold once again finds itself in the investment spotlight as investors seeking safety from the turbulence of the bottoming 4-year cycle turn to gold. In its latest close, the gold price according to the 100 oz. COMEX index closed at $1,248.50 just below and within reach of its previous high of $1,260.

news.goldseek.com >> 31 August 2010

Prelude to Meltdown: An interview with Bert Dohmen
By: Clif Droke and Bert Dohmen
On August 27, I spoke with Bert concerning his forecast of the credit crisis, the likelihood of another financial crisis, the bond market “bubble” and the outlook for gold. His answers were as always refreshing and full of insight. Following is a transcript of that interview.

news.goldseek.com >> 26 August 2010

A Look At the Upcoming 4-Year Cycle
By: Clif Droke
Many observers have been wondering if the upcoming 4-year cycle bottom in a few weeks will exert a negative impact on stock prices when the previous 4-year cycle bottom in 2006 barely registered. You may recall that the period from August through December of 2006 saw a stellar performance from the market that left many market technicians perplexed as to why the 4-year cycle bottom left no discernible impact on stock prices at that time.

news.goldseek.com >> 15 August 2010

Gold and Financial Crisis
By: Clif Droke
At what point does a market crash translate to a lengthy bear market and/or an economic recession? This question was taken up by a celebrated historian of the early 20th century, one Otto C. Lightner.

news.goldseek.com >> 6 August 2010

A Closer Look at the “Death Cross”
By: Clif Droke
Market technicians sometimes let their imaginations carry them away. Because of the dry, tedious nature of the business, they sometimes exaggerate the importance of a technical signal by drawing to attention to what would otherwise be a non-event.

news.goldseek.com >> 2 August 2010

How To Conquer "Volatile Volatility"
By: Clif Droke
The stock market since the May “flash crash” and early July cycle low has been a trading range affair characterized by alternations between high and low volatility levels, or what pundits have taken to calling “volatile volatility.” As Steven Sears in his Barron’s column of July 26 pointed out, “The back-and-forth action is just the latest reminder that volatile volatility is a central fact of the 2010 market.” After being spoiled by last year’s extremely low volatility market, participants are shell-shocked at the heightened levels of volatility in recent months.

news.goldseek.com >> 25 July 2010

Making Sense of the Economic Puzzle
By: Clif Droke
You can tell a lot about the state of the economy by simply looking at the covers of national news magazines. Or perhaps a better way of saying it is that you can get a good sense of how most Americans perceive the state of the economy by perusing the mainstream magazines.

news.goldseek.com >> 18 July 2010

Last Bull Standing 2011
By: Clif Droke
One of the most important contributions made in the science of market analysis is the series of equity market rhythms known as the Kress Cycles. The one who discovered these cycles, Samuel J. “Bud” Kress, has done for cycle theory what virtually no one else been able to accomplish, namely discovering a series of inter-related “hard” cycles that are all harmonically related and which provide an accurate context from which to view the past, present and future financial and economic climate.

news.goldseek.com >> 12 July 2010

Deflation Becomes the Dominant Economic Trend
By: Clif Droke
One of the abiding fears since the government stimulus effort began in earnest last year has been the fear that runaway inflation will once again rear its ugly head. Legions of market commentators have predicted the return of inflation in spite of the deflationary environment we find ourselves in.

news.goldseek.com >> 6 July 2010

The Double-Edged Sword of Financial Fear
By: Clif Droke
Worries over the fragility of the economic recovery continues to haunt investors and dominate the new headlines. The latest headlines point to a widespread expectation of a double-dip recession by later this year. The latest round of worries are focused on potential European debt troubles, soft unemployment numbers and the latest round of U.S. economic numbers that proved to be disappointing to investors.

news.goldseek.com >> 21 June 2010

Consumer Deleveraging: The New “Wall Of Worry”
By: Clif Droke
Everywhere one turns it seems that fear lurks just behind the corner, just waiting to pounce. Every day we’re bombarded by fear in the news headlines, be it from a financial, economic or geopolitical perspective. Nowhere is this more apparent than the current fear campaign over the U.S. debt situation, specifically, consumer deleveraging.

news.goldseek.com >> 13 June 2010

Is There Really A Debt Crisis?
By: Clif Droke
One of the most debated topics today concerns the level of debt as it concerns consumers, corporations and governments. Government debt has commanded a particularly large share of the limelight in recent weeks. Among those who are concerned that debt levels have reached "crisis" proportions, there's seems to be a consensus that the debt balloon has reached well night the bursting point, and further, we have reached the point of no return when it comes to the servicing of the debt.

news.goldseek.com >> 4 June 2010

A Look at Some Stock Market "Echoes"
By: Clif Droke
I'd like to return to a theme we were discussing last week concerning our expectations for this year's upcoming 4-year cycle bottom. We touched on this in a recent commentary and we'll discuss it some more here.

news.goldseek.com >> 24 May 2010

Panics Versus Crashes (It Makes All The Difference!)
By: Clif Droke
Much has been written about the so-called “flash crash” that occurred on Thursday, May 6, which saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average lose nearly 1,000 points intraday. But did this sell-off fall under the category of a crash or a panic? The difference between the two events is significant and will usually determine whether the stock market bounces back or continues to free fall.

news.goldseek.com >> 7 May 2010

Will China's Bubble Implode and Bring the U.S. Down with It?
By: Clif Droke
China could be the single-most important factor in trying to solve the global financial crisis. Clif Droke, editor of the Momentum Strategies Report, looks at questions surrounding China's near-term future and the momentous impact on our own financial futures in this exclusive article for The Gold Report.

news.goldseek.com >> 3 May 2010

Is It 1998 All Over Again?
By: Clif Droke
When I saw Thursday's WSJ headline concerning Spain, I was struck with the thought that I had seen this scenario played out sometime in the past. After a little pondering, it finally occurred to me that the variables we're seeing set up right now are, in some ways, similar to the situation we saw in the spring of 1998.

news.goldseek.com >> 26 April 2010

George Soros and the Next Financial Crisis
By: Clif Droke
Speculation has been rife in the financial press lately about the possibility of another financial market meltdown. It seems that investors are waiting for the proverbial “other shoe” to drop as worries continue to mount over the sustainability of the financial market recovery that began over one year ago.

news.goldseek.com >> 15 April 2010

An Interview with a Long Wave Master (Part 2)
By: Clif Droke
The fact that people are even talking about a global New Deal is a sign that the psychology has radically changed. The socialists are excited because they think we’re headed in that direction, but I think they’re in for a major disappointment. I think we’re heading for a shift [in psychology] to a degree larger than the previous shift in political psychology. I sincerely believe the Tea Party movement is an early manifestation of this emerging shift, which I believe will be toward the Great Republic.

news.goldseek.com >> 9 April 2010

An Interview with a Long Wave Master
By: Clif Droke
David Knox Barker is one of the leading authorities on the economic long wave, otherwise known as the Kondratieff Wave (a.k.a. “K Wave”). Barker has had an impressive career both as a financial market writer and long wave analyst, as well as being an entrepreneur in the field of emerging nanotechnology. Back in the late 1980s and ‘90s, Barker was known for his insightful and accurate views on the U.S. economy and financial markets via his “K Wave Report” newsletter.

news.goldseek.com >> 4 April 2010

Critical Juncture for Housing Market, Gold
By: Clif Droke
So much for real estate, now what about the market for gold? Much like the housing market, gold has also arrived at somewhat of a critical juncture. Investors seemed to be asleep on the precious metals and one gets the sense that the market is ripe for a surprise “spring rally.”

news.goldseek.com >> 28 March 2010

America and the Next Major War
By: Clif Droke
In the current phase of relative peace and stability we now enjoy, many are questioning when the next major war may occur and speculation is rampant as to major participants involved. Our concern here is strictly of a financial nature, however, and a discussion of the geopolitical and military variables involved in the escalation of war is beyond the scope of this commentary.

news.goldseek.com >> 21 March 2010

Trading Range Madness
By: Clif Droke
One of the most salient observations that can be made in the financial market is the tendency of market averages to enter lengthy trading range after a prolonged uptrend or downtrend. This temporarily directionless trend of prices, or consolidation, within a range creates a psychological discomfort among investors that at times is quite palpable.

news.goldseek.com >> 10 March 2010

The End of the Recovery?
By: Clif Droke
I received an interesting e-mail the other day that sheds some light on the current state of investor psychology. He writes, “I hear from a hedge fund and analyst friend that most major cycle work tops out from this coming week thru April and [he says] it’s THE top...

news.goldseek.com >> 22 February 2010

Economic Recovery and the Price of Gold
By: Clif Droke
What a difference a month makes! It was only a month ago a leading financial publication came out with the story, "U.S. economy still hemorrhaging jobs despite stimulus." The press was all over the employment data and concluded that the stimulus had utterly failed. They were of course making the classic mistake of treating the employment numbers as coincident indicators, when in fact employment is the ultimate lagging indicator.

news.goldseek.com >> 12 February 2010

Will Silver Outperform Gold In 2010?
By: Clif Droke
In a recent issue of Barron’s addressed the question of silver possibly having another outperformance in the coming year. The article asks, “Will the poor man’s gold shine in 2010?” The opinion piece (“Gold Isn’t All That Glitters,” by Allen Sykora) drew attention to the other white metals, platinum and palladium, and made a case for a strong recovery in global demand for these metals along with silver in the year ahead.

news.goldseek.com >> 5 February 2010

Market Manipulation in the Balance
By: Clif Droke
Our recent commentary on the subject of market manipulation elicited a wide range of feedback, pro and con. Some respondents agreed with my assertion that, assuming the existence of market manipulation, it doesn’t preclude one’s ability to successfully navigate financial markets with a reliable technical discipline. Others expressed the view that manipulation and government/central bank interference in the market make it untenable for small traders to be participants.

news.goldseek.com >> 29 January 2010

The China Controversy and the Stock Market
By: Clif Droke
The news spotlight recently was stolen by Google, the Internet search engine giant. A statement issued by Google a couple of weeks ago was greeted by dismay on Wall Street as shares retreated in response to the company’s announcement that it no longer supports China’s censoring of searches that take place on the Google platform. China has defended its extensive censorship after Google threatened to withdraw from the country.

news.goldseek.com >> 24 January 2010

Lessons from the Panic of 1907
By: Clif Droke
In their timely look at the panic of 1907, Robert Bruner and Sean Carr focus attention on what they believe to be the underlying causes of the ’07 stock market crash and recession, drawing parallels between it and the credit crisis of more recent times. Their book, “The Panic of 1907: Lessons Learned from the Market’s Perfect Storm,” is now available in soft cover published by John Wiley & Sons (2007).

news.goldseek.com >> 18 January 2010

What Crash History Tells Us to Expect For 2010
By: Clif Droke
Many have wondered why the 10-year cycle peak in late September/early October didn’t produce a more meaningful correction in the broad market. Instead, the 10-year cycle peak produced only a marginal six percent pullback in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) instead of the much deeper one usually associated with the 10-year peak.

news.goldseek.com >> 11 January 2010

Is The Stock Market Rigged?
By: Clif Droke
I received an interesting comment from my previous commentary, “Prospects for Economic Recovery in 2010.” The basis of my claim that 2010 will witness some economic recovery was the “6-9 Month Rule” of Dow Theory fame. Simply stated, this rule says that a 6-to-9 month stock market recovery that follows a market decline and economic recession bodes well for an economic turnaround.

news.goldseek.com >> 4 January 2010

Prospects for Economic Recovery In 2010
By: Clif Droke
With the commencement of a New Year comes the usual barrage of analyst predictions for what the year ahead will look like. This is the time when economists present their year-ahead forecasts and when investors anxiously contemplate what the next 12 months will hold in store for them.

news.goldseek.com >> 14 December 2009

The Cult of Non-Participation Revisited
By: Clif Droke
Over the last few years we’ve made reference to the “cult” of non-participation. By this I mean the relative lack of retail investor interest in the stock market compared to the former decade. In tonight’s report we’ll look at why this trend of non-participation may be soon coming to an end.

news.goldseek.com >> 22 November 2009

Gold: A “Channel Buster” or a Runaway Parabola?
By: Clif Droke
The uptrend in gold is now approaching the moment of truth. The gold price is nearly 5% above the upper boundary of the uptrend channel breakout point and approaching the point where it must either pull back to test support at the channel boundary (previous resistance, new support) or else we’ll have a “channel buster failure” on our hands.

news.goldseek.com >> 6 November 2009

Gold at Both Ends of the Economic K Wave
By: Clif Droke
Now that the 10-year cycle has peaked, fear will become the dominant emotion in the financial marketplace in the years ahead. Risk aversion is on the rise since the credit crisis and investors must look to those assets which tend to benefit from fear. Gold is of course the chief beneficiary of fear and has the added feature of being a hedge against a hyper-deflationary environment. Hyper deflation will be the order of the day in 2012-2014 when the final leg of the 60-year cycle descends.

news.goldseek.com >> 1 November 2009

Are China Bulls Being Prepared For Slaughter?
By: Clif Droke
After the apparently success of its stimulus program, China’s remarkable economic recovery has many observers forecasting an even brighter future for the emerging powerhouse. China’s 2008-2009 economic rebound and rising appetite for commodities has made many bullish converts. A close look at some important indicators, however, calls that optimism into question…

news.goldseek.com >> 25 October 2009

The War over the Dollar versus Gold
By: Clif Droke
A fierce war of words has erupted in recent weeks between the two major camps in monetary circles. The first camp – the gold bulls/dollar bears – have been loudly voicing their twin belief that the gold price is poised to skyrocket while the dollar price is perched for a collapse. The other side – the gold bears/dollar bulls – are making the counter claim the gold price is setting up for a crash.

news.goldseek.com >> 11 October 2009

A Look at Producer Expectations for Gold, Base Metals Prices
By: Clif Droke
The XAU Gold Silver Index closed 1.38% higher on Thursday, Oct. 8, at 177.22. The Gold Bugs Index (HUI) was 1.43% higher at 449.61. October gold closed 1.14% higher at $1,056. December silver was 1.80% higher at $17.81. Gold is at an all-time high and the XAU index has recently achieved a new recovery high for the year.

news.goldseek.com >> 27 September 2009

The Great China Conundrum
By: Clif Droke
Probably the biggest “X-factor” in the ongoing effort at reviving the global economy is China. China is seen by many as the world’s emerging industrial powerhouse and its relationship with the United States is considered to be crucial for its own development, as well as for the strength of the world economy. With the U.S. in the role as the world’s premier consumer and China considered to be the major industrial player, all eyes are on the respective economies of these two great nations.

news.goldseek.com >> 18 September 2009

Clif's Notes: Grand Supercycle Favors Gold & Silver
By: The Gold Report and Clif Droke
A serious student of equity market cycles and stock charts, market technician Clif Droke pulls no punches about the fact that the 120-year Grand Supercycle bodes ill as it approaches its end. Although his analyses of charts and cycles suggest some bright days on the near-term horizon, they also foretell depressing darkness by the middle of the next decade.

news.goldseek.com >> 10 September 2009

Gold, Stocks and the 10-Year Cycle Peak
By: Clif Droke
Talk is now circulating in financial quarters of a new “mini-bubble” in the making. Apparently the unbounded rise in the stock market is reviving fears of another collapse like the one suffered last year.

news.goldseek.com >> 23 August 2009

The Power of the 10-Year Cycle
By: Clif Droke
Here we are again approaching another 10-year cycle peak. The last such peak was in 1999 while the most recent 10-year cycle bottom was in 2004. We wrote extensively on both episodes at the time and the 10-year cycle is one of our favorites. It’s what I like to call the “slam dunk” cycle since among all the yearly Kress cycles, the 10-year cycle at its peak and bottom phase can almost always be used for profitable trading/investing almost by itself.

news.goldseek.com >> 3 August 2009

The Great Missed Opportunity of 2009
By: Clif Droke
When the books have been written on 2009, the prevailing story will undoubtedly be one of lost opportunity. Countless numbers of investors caught up in the tangled web of pessimistic headlines failed to pull the trigger on what is turning out to be one of the best market recovery years of our lifetime.

news.goldseek.com >> 27 July 2009

The Dangers of Drinking From the Horse Trough
By: Clif Droke
One of the most talked about themes of the past few weeks was the supposedly bearish “head and shoulders” pattern in the daily chart of the S&P 500 Index. The financial press drew investors’ attention to this pattern in the most alarmist tones they could muster. A plethora of market technicians were trotted out each day to remind one and all that this “H&S top” was a precursor of a major decline, if not an outright collapse.

news.goldseek.com >> 20 July 2009

It Doesn’t Pay To Fall Asleep In a Recovery
By: Clif Droke
The vast majority of retail investors have “fallen asleep” on the broad market recovery since March. The sleepy character of market psychology has become even more pronounced in just the last few weeks as the market spent some time consolidating its gains. In that period of time we’ve seen quite a few analysts turn bearish on the market, which is usually a big mistake in a year when the dominant yearly Kress cycle is up.

news.goldseek.com >> 7 July 2009

Inflation, Sentiment and the Kress Cycles
By: Clif Droke
Despite a 40% market recovery and an abatement of the credit crisis, a climate of high fear abounds among market participants. Investor sentiment polls continue to show an excess of bears over bulls as few believe that a recovery can be sustained.

news.goldseek.com >> 29 June 2009

Bernanke on the Great Depression
By: Clif Droke
A major result of last year’s credit storm is a lingering sense of dread and foreboding among investors. Many are waiting for the proverbial “other shoe to drop” as the memories of last year’s crisis, and its attendant economic effects, are still fresh in mind.

news.goldseek.com >> 1 June 2009

Retroflation Revisited
By: Clif Droke
Back in 2001-2002 I used the term “retroflation” in a series of newsletters and articles to describe what I saw as a battle between the forces of inflation and deflation. The Kress 30-year cycle had peaked in late 1999 and with it the 1990s bull market in stocks. The U.S. was in the throes of economic recession and tech stocks were in freefall. Yet the Kress cycles called for a major bottom in late 2002 with the 6-year/12-year cycle bottoming and the Fed was already beginning to aggressive cut interest rates, showing that it was serious about re-inflating the economy.

news.goldseek.com >> 17 May 2009

The “Silent Rally” In Gold
By: Clif Droke
Gold’s latest rally is a microcosm of what I expect for 2009. The rally to date has been a “silent” one in that it hasn’t been overly exciting or suggestive of major inflation. Many traders have slept on this one despite being fairly profitable for us so far. But it does denote recovery and also perhaps reflects lingering concerns over the stability of the financial system, a carryover from last year’s severe bear market.

news.goldseek.com >> 6 May 2009

Why 2009 Is Turning Out To Be a Repeat of 1975
By: Clif Droke
The impressive recovery in the S&P 500 index to date has been brought to us courtesy of a massive shift in the market’s internal rate of change. This was characterized by the extreme diminution of stocks making the new 52-week lows list on the NYSE since the early March bottom.

news.goldseek.com >> 14 April 2009

Leading Economic Indicators Point to Improvement
By: Clif Droke
Since the start of the new millennium and new century, many of the old truisms that applied to economic forecasting are no longer relevant. So many things have changed in the last nine years that a new set of economic “rules” is in order.

news.goldseek.com >> 5 April 2009

Why Retail Investors Are Starving Themselves to Death
By: Clif Droke
Since the market bottomed and the new cyclical recovery bull market began, retail investors have gone on a collective buyer’s strike. Call it a “hunger strike” if you will. The retail crowd is effectively starving itself by missing out on some remarkable recoveries in recent weeks and will most likely continue to miss out on these opportunity until they simply can’t take it anymore. In other words, a classic repetition of the idealized market cycle is setting up perfectly.

news.goldseek.com >> 18 March 2009

Market Bottom and the Bookstore Indicator
By: Clif Droke
It’s hard to be positive about the stock market when all around us gloom prevails. Visiting a local Barnes & Noble recently made me conscious of just how gloomy everyone is feeling these days. While there I made a list of some of the titles in the financial section. Finding a book these days with a bullish theme – or even a non-emotional, level-headed theme –is like trying to find a needle in a haystack.

news.goldseek.com >> 9 March 2009

One Last Bubble Remains to Be Popped
By: Clif Droke
The problem plaguing the market heretofore has been two-fold: a lack of buyers on the retail side and deleveraging on the institutional side of the aisle. In an all-out liquidation market cycles, support levels and technical indicators are of little to no use until the panic subsides and a level-headed approach prevails.

news.goldseek.com >> 17 February 2009

Base Building Considerations for Stocks and Commodities
By: Clif Droke
The most salient feature of the markets at this juncture is the number of interim bases that have been building in several major sectors, including copper and other economically sensitive groups. In this commentary we’ll examine the bottoms currently being established for stocks and one of the key supports for the continued recovery in the precious metals mining sector, namely copper and copper mining shares.

news.goldseek.com >> 8 February 2009

A Confidence Crisis, Not a Money Crisis
By: Clif Droke
The crisis we keep hearing so much about, which formally began in 2007 and intensified in 2008, was at root a crisis in confidence. True, the credit crisis had its origins in the tight money policy of the Federal Reserve beginning in 2004 and continuing into 2007. So there was definitely a money/credit aspect to the crisis. But more than any single factor – and this has been especially true in the past few months – the crisis has been more about shattered confidence than a dearth of liquidity.

news.goldseek.com >> 27 January 2009

An Interview With A Cycle Master, Part 2
By: Clif Droke
Following our previous interview in August, Kress was kind enough grant me another interview concerning his cycle work and investment/economic outlook for the U.S. in the foreseeable future. He also shared his longer-term outlook for gold and commodities.

news.goldseek.com >> 5 January 2009

A Bouncing Baby Bull
By: Clif Droke
The old man of 2008 has yielded his place to the baby New Year and with it a changing of the guard. Not only has 2009 brought a fresh new start with a clean slate, but also a new series of Kress cycles.

news.goldseek.com >> 29 December 2008

Recession: A Reason To Rejoice
By: Clif Droke
What would normally be a time of happiness and cheer this holiday season has become instead an occasion of gloom and foreboding for many. At every turn we hear dire predictions of pending calamities to befall the economy in 2009. Prophecies of another Great Crash like the one of 1929 are repeated with such frequency that they are now believed by one and all.

news.goldseek.com >> 17 December 2008

Blood in the Streets All Over the Place
By: Clif Droke
As the bear market ends and a new cyclical bull market begins with the bottoming of the 6-year cycle, we continue see the lagging effects of this year’s seismic volatility on almost a daily basis. For although the stock market price low has almost certainly been made and the 6-year cycle is starting to assert itself on the upside, more and more investors have capitulated to the emotional exhaustion the previous months have subjected them to.