news.goldseek.com >> 29 June 2008
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news.goldseek.com >> 29 June 2008 |
The Slow Motion Recession Re-visited
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
It was only five years ago that the central bankers of the world, and especially the Fed, was worried about deflation. Ben Bernanke was introduced to the world at large with his famous helicopter speech about how the Fed could deal with a deflationary environment. Who would have thought that what passed as humor to a group of economists would be taken so seriously by the rest of the world?
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news.goldseek.com >> 22 June 2008 |
Warren Makes a Bet
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
The Sage of Omaha made a bet that was written up in a recent Fortune magazine article. Basically, Warren Buffett bet that the S&P 500 would outperform a group of funds of hedge funds over the next ten years. A million dollars to someone's favorite charity is on the line. This week we will analyze the bet, using it as a springboard to learn about valuation and value investing.
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news.goldseek.com >> 15 June 2008 |
Whip Inflation Now
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week we look at the cost of what could be a renewed effort to Whip Inflation Now, not just here but in countries worldwide. Will Trichet in Europe raise rates even as the European economy seems to be slowing down? If you think inflation is bad in the US and Europe, take a peek at Asia. And I ask, "What will Ben do?" It should make for an interesting letter.
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news.goldseek.com >> 8 June 2008 |
When Bubbles Collide
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Today, we have to look at the unemployment numbers, and the connection between the credit crisis and the rise in oil of about $16 dollars a barrel in just two days! If there is still room, the dollar is certainly being pushed and pulled by central bankers, who are also worried about inflation. And I doubt we will have room to cover what is a very important rise in inflation in Asia. It is all connected. (And you HAVE to look at the picture of my daughter and associate Tiffani at the end of the letter. Too much fun!)
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news.goldseek.com >> 1 June 2008 |
The Problem with the Euro
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Last week I wrote that we could see a drop in the price of oil as speculators seemed to be storing oil in very large tankers and "slow steaming" them to port in a bet that prices would rise. When everyone is on the same side of the trade, the time is right for a reversal. This is especially true when there is a large potential supply sitting on the sidelines.
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news.goldseek.com >> 26 May 2008 |
Whither the Price of Oil?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Why has the price of oil risen so much in the past few months? Is it a supply and demand issue as some believe; or is it because of an out-of-control futures market driven by the proliferation of commodity index funds and rampant speculation, as everyone tries to get in on the rise in commodity prices? This is a very complex issue, with a lot of emotion attached to it.
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news.goldseek.com >> 18 May 2008 |
The Fed at the Crossroads
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Is the economy poised for a recovery, as the stock market seems to expect? Or are we in for another few more quarters of recession and/or slow growth? In this week's letter we take a look at consumer spending, inflation, and other data to see if we can find a clue or two to give us an idea of the direction of the economy.
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news.goldseek.com >> 11 May 2008 |
Why Investors Fail
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Why Investors Fail: Analyzing Risk
Investors Behaving Badly
Tails You Lose, Heads I Win
Ergodicity
Why Investors Fail
Becoming a Top 20% Investor
Investors Behaving Badly
South Africa, Laguna Beach, and Canada
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news.goldseek.com >> 4 May 2008 |
Lies and Other Statistics
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
If we are to believe the government statistics, the GDP of the US grew by 0.6% in the first quarter of this year. And unemployment actually fell. And there were only 20,000 job losses. This week we do a quick review of why the statistics can be so misleading.
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news.goldseek.com >> 27 April 2008 |
The Velocity Of Money
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
The late and great Milton Friedman told us that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. But there is an asterisk to his equation that we need to examine, namely, the velocity of money.
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news.goldseek.com >> 20 April 2008 |
The Muddle Through Question
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
A few weeks ago I asked for readers to send me questions and said I would try and answer them while I was in Switzerland. Some of them were quite good and have given me ideas for whole newsletters but will require a lot of research. But a lot of them fell into two basic camps. This week we look at a number of questions from readers about my thoughts on the Muddle Through Economy.
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news.goldseek.com >> 13 April 2008 |
Is it a Bull, Bear or Cowardly Lion Market?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Are we in a bull, a bear, or a cowardly lion market? As we will see, the answer can make a huge difference in your investment portfolio. This week I am at my Strategic Investment conference in La Jolla. About four times a year I take a break from writing the letter and bring in a guest writer. This week Thoughts from the Frontline will have the very distinguished analyst and author Vitaliy Katsenelson.
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news.goldseek.com >> 6 April 2008 |
Thoughts on the Continuing Crisis
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
There is so much that is happening each and every day as the Continuing Crisis moves slowly into month 8, so much news to follow, so many details that need to be followed up that it can get a little overwhelming. Where to begin?
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news.goldseek.com >> 30 March 2008 |
Where is the Bottom in Housing?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Existing home sales rose by 2.9% in February, the first significant rise in home sales since the housing market started to decline last year. I was in my car and listening to CNBC as commentators started to celebrate the bottom of the housing market. Since the credit crisis has its roots in the US housing market, and will require a resolution of the housing market in order for credit markets to return to whatever will look like normalcy in the future, it is of more than passing interest to get a handle on the actual state of the housing market.
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news.goldseek.com >> 24 March 2008 |
Thoughts on the Continuing Crisis
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
My essay in Outside the Box last Monday seemed to ignite a lot of response in the blogosphere. My basic contention was that the Fed had to act to facilitate the sale of Bear to prevent a meltdown in the markets. Many agreed, but others said Bear should have been left to hang, pointing out that a thorough cleansing is what is needed.
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news.goldseek.com >> 16 March 2008 |
Muddle Through and Your Long Term Returns
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
My position is that the recession will be rather long and relatively shallow, and the inevitable recovery will be longer and more drawn out than is typical, resulting in what I call The Muddle Through Economy for a period of several years. I define a Muddle Through Economy as one which grows below normal trend GDP growth of 3% for a period of time, typically in the 2% range.
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news.goldseek.com >> 9 March 2008 |
What's That Hissing Sound?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
The official number for employment suggested a loss of 63,000 jobs. But could it have been more like 200,000? And I will make a case for 2,000,000 lost jobs last month. This week we will take a look at the confusing labor-market picture in the US. We will also look at the debate over the money supply. Is the Fed increasing the money supply at a reckless rate, fueling inflation fears down the road? All this and a lot more as we look at how the recession in affecting everyone and everything, from individuals to large businesses.
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news.goldseek.com >> 2 March 2008 |
Stagflation and the Fed
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
This week's topic was inspired by a discussion I had with George Friedman of Stratfor fame last night. He was suggesting the recession would be short and steep, and I of course think it is going to be shallow and with a long, protracted, and slow Muddle Through recovery. And it all hinges on how the Fed thinks about inflation.
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news.goldseek.com >> 24 February 2008 |
The Muddle Through Fed
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
This week the Fed offered us their forecasts for 2008-10 for the economy, inflation and employment. We will look at some of the details which I think will be of interest. Then we glance at some data on the savings rate which suggests consumer spending may be in for more of a challenge than many think. There is a lot of ground to cover.
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news.goldseek.com >> 18 February 2008 |
What Would Warren Do?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Today we look at the rather disturbing developments in the municipal bond market, Warren Buffett's offer to "rescue" the tax-exempt insurers, and ponder what the resolution will be. We also look at corporate earnings, and note how they have been downgraded significantly over the last year. There is (or will be) a connection between stock market prices, valuation, the current credit crisis, and the economy. There is a lot of ground to cover.
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news.goldseek.com >> 10 February 2008 |
Consumers, Credit, and Complications
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
The evidence continues to mount that the US is in a recession. In this week's letter, we will look at the blind spot in the unemployment statistics, the continuing meltdown in the credit markets, and the simply awful service sector implosion in the ISM data, and then add a few thoughts on the housing market. There is a lot of data to cover, so this week's letter should be particularly interesting. The letter will print longer than normal, since there are lots of graphs.
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news.goldseek.com >> 3 February 2008 |
What Does a Recession Look Like?
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
What does a recession look like? How does it feel? What does it mean for your life and your investments? We explore these questions and more in this week's letter. I have been working on this letter all week, and think you will find it interesting.
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news.goldseek.com >> 27 January 2008 |
What Does the Fed Know?
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
It had been my original intention to devote this week's letter to the view from Europe, as I have been here for the last week, but events have changed that goal. The Federal Reserve made a very rare inter-meeting rate cut of 75 basis points this week, after the worldwide markets were in turmoil.
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news.goldseek.com >> 21 January 2008 |
More BLS BS
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
After a wild week in the markets, there is so much to write about, it is hard to know where to start. The headline number says jobless claims fell 20,000. That would be good news, if it were true. Sometimes you need to look behind the curtain to see how these statistics are made. As we will see, claims were actually up by 26,000.
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news.goldseek.com >> 13 January 2008 |
What Are They Thinking?
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
Today we will look at some economic reality. We tackle trade deficits, the dollar, taxes (the "Fair Tax"), how should we stimulate the economy as we slip into recession, and global trade. I think we will cover enough that I can just about guarantee to offend most of my readers at some point. But the main point I want you to take away from all this is that the simple one-line answers given at these debates might work to fool most of the voters and tell them what they want to hear, but they are not based in economic reality. While this is of more interest to US citizens, the principles apply across borders.
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news.goldseek.com >> 6 January 2008 |
Forecast 2008: Recession and Recovery
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
It's that time of year, when I throw caution to the wind and present my annual forecast issue. Jumping to the conclusion, I think a recession has begun, so the relevant question is to ask when the recovery will begin. We will look at the housing market, the continued implosion of the credit markets, and the deteriorating employment picture.
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news.goldseek.com >> 24 December 2007 |
Pop Go the Bubbles
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Investments
Pop Go the Bubbles
Lights for Myanmar, Water for Darfur
A Half A Trillion Here and There
Consumer Spending is Up? Wait, Is It Down?
The Presidential Race
Family, Christmas and Home
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news.goldseek.com >> 16 December 2007 |
Things That Go Bump in the Night
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Investments
Things That Go Bump in the Night
Foolish Investor of the Year?Really?
Breaking the Buck at Bank of America
Inflation Rears it Ugly Head
Academics at the Fed
1% Growth plus 4.3% Inflation = Stagflation
London, Switzerland, and Barcelona
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news.goldseek.com >> 9 December 2007 |
Black Swans and Endogenous Uncertainty
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
How does the risk of default in California or Thailand get spread throughout the world, causing problem in money market funds in Europe and Florida? Yes, we can trace the linkages now, but was it possible to predict the crisis beforehand? And can we use what we learn to predict and hopefully hedge ourselves from the next crisis?
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news.goldseek.com >> 2 December 2007 |
The Financial Fire Trucks Are Gathering
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
The markets rebounded strongly this week, bouncing off a 10% drop in the previous weeks. Is it a signal of renewed economic vigor? Or is it a dead cat bounce? This week we take a look at problems at the edge of the economy which threaten to derail not only the recent robust growth (at least in the statistics) but also the markets. And we start with a personal story which I think will help us understand the current situation. Stay with me here.
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news.goldseek.com >> 18 November 2007 |
How do You Spell Stagflation?
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
This week we look at inflation. Is it just over 2%, giving the Fed room to cut rates, or will it be closer to 4% by the next FOMC meeting, making a rate cut problematic? How do they get those numbers? When and how can two opposite things be true at the same time? The answer depends on how many dimensions you are living in when you are asking the question. The Fed is going to be faced with a very difficult decision at its next meeting, and there results of there deliberations will be felt by you.
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news.goldseek.com >> 11 November 2007 |
Credit Crisis to Credit Crunch
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
Just when it felt like it was safe to get back in the water, a second and potentially much meaner version of this summer's credit crisis has reappeared. This week we look at why there are more mortgage write downs coming (in a self-fulfilling prophecy) in the financial sector, how an obscure new accounting rule is shedding light on a lot of risk in the world's banking system, how this is all tied to the consumer and is part of the reason for the fall in the dollar.
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news.goldseek.com >> 4 November 2007 |
Why the Fed Will Cut Again and Again
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
The economy added 166,000 new jobs last month, almost double the average estimate. GDP for the US came in at a blowout 3.9% growth, well above trend. The Fed cut its rate by another 25 basis points, but many observers see language in the accompanying statement which they think suggests the Fed is done with cutting, at least for now, as the economy appears stronger.
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news.goldseek.com >> 28 October 2007 |
As the Subprime Turns
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
As the World Turns is a popular soap opera playing on American TV. It focuses, as do most soaps, on the lives and foibles of its characters, with plenty of dramatic flair. We are watching a different type of soap opera today which we could call "As the Subprime Turns. And the world is watching. It has plenty of drama, lots of flawed characters, a plot that is hard to understand, everyone saying it was the other guys fault and the world (literally) paying for the sins of exuberance in the US.
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news.goldseek.com >> 21 October 2007 |
Taking Out the SIV Garbage
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
This week was not pretty for stocks. It all started off with the announcement of a special 80-100 billion dollar fund orchestrated by the US Treasury to bail out something called an SIV. Then Caterpillar gave negative guidance this morning, especially on its US business and the selling began in earnest. October 19 is still not a friendly day to the stock market 20 years later.
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news.goldseek.com >> 14 October 2007 |
The GDP Equation
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
A recession is technically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This week we look at how the GDP is actually calculated to give us an idea as to the potential for a recession. We re-visit my concepts of a Slow Motion Recession and a Muddle Through Economy. We briefly look at the sliding dollar and housing, and see how it all adds up. You'll need to put your thinking caps on, but it should be interesting.
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news.goldseek.com >> 7 October 2007 |
The Slow Motion Recession
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
The market certainly seemed pleased with the new jobs number. The glass is more than half full - or is it? Fed Vice-chairman seemed to suggest that the economy was getting better and the Fed might not need to make any further rate cuts. Is it now "One (Cut) and Done?" This week we look at what employment growth tells us about the growth of the US economy, spend some more time looking at how a fall in home prices will affect consumer spending, and muse on whether the Fed is indeed done cutting.
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news.goldseek.com >> 30 September 2007 |
The Return of Muddle Through
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
The dollar reaches new lows. The housing market shows no sign of a bottom. Oil almost touches $84 before backing off. Interest rates go up after the Fed cuts. So naturally the stock market keeps climbing. But then, consumer spending came in strong, employment looks like it may be ok, inflation (at least by one measure) came in below 2%. This week we look at the question of whether you could have a continued bull market and a recession. (Maybe.) We look at the bigger picture for the dollar and interest rates and examine the ugly data from the housing sector. Inflation or deflation?
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news.goldseek.com >> 23 September 2007 |
Sea Change at the Fed
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
The term "sea change" has come to mean a profound transformation ever since Will Shakespeare used it in The Tempest. I think this week we witnessed a true sea change in central bank policy, on both sides of the Atlantic.
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news.goldseek.com >> 16 September 2007 |
The Black Swan
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
How predictable was the current turmoil in the market one year ago? Six months ago? On one level, it was not all that hard to see that that there were going to be problems in the subprime mortgage market, especially in the BBB tranches (or portions) of Mortgage Backed Securities which were rolled up together into Collateralized Debt Obligations and given AAA ratings.
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news.goldseek.com >> 9 September 2007 |
Should the Fed Cut Interest Rates?
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
The unemployment numbers came in today, and if you look under the hood of the data, it is worse than the headline loss of 4,000 jobs. Should the Fed cut the interest rates in two weeks? Will it make a difference? Are we headed into recession (as predicted here in my January 2007 forecast issue)? When do we see a bottom in the housing market? Are we there yet? We look at all this and more. It should make for an interesting letter, if I can get my jet-lagged body to cooperate.
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news.goldseek.com >> 3 September 2007 |
Hope Is Not a Strategy
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
Past is Not Prologue, and Hope Is Not a Strategy
Eliminating Negative Alpha
Our Biggest Bet is Equities - Does Cap Weighting Weigh Us Down??
Practicing What We Preach
Update - Fundamental Index(tm) Today
New Orleans, London and South Africa
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news.goldseek.com >> 19 August 2007 |
The Panic of 2007
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
End of the World or Muddle Through? This week I try to explain in simple terms the very complicated story of how we went from some bad mortgage loan practices in the US to the point of world credit markets freezing up. There is a connection between the retirement plans of Mr. and Mrs. Watanabe in Japan and the subprime problems of Mr. and Mrs. Smith in California. We find the relationship between European banks and problematic hedge funds. And finally, we try and see how we get out of this mess.
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news.goldseek.com >> 12 August 2007 |
The Fugu Ultimatum
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
This week we look at the similarities and the differences between the credit crisis that is going on today and what happened in 1998, take a quick look at the threat from China to the dollar and see what exotic fish and exotic bonds have in common. There is a lot of ground to cover, so let's jump right in.
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news.goldseek.com >> 5 August 2007 |
The Mortgage Pig in the Python
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
With the economy increasingly looking like it will slow down materially in the last half of the year, there is a drum beat for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. But how likely is a rate cut this year? We take a very different look at inflation to see if there is any room for the Fed to give a boost to the economy. We look over our shoulder at Japan and the yen carry trade and ask a heretical question: does the Fed cutting rates make any difference?
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news.goldseek.com >> 29 July 2007 |
The Subprime Virus
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
As predicted in this letter early this year, the credit markets have finally begun to tighten, as a major re-pricing of risk is underway as a direct result of the subprime markets. The subprime virus seems to be spreading, despite the view a few weeks ago that there would be no "contagion" in the rest of the credit markets. This week we look at the re-pricing of debt and take a rather positive view and explain how a bottom in the credit market is reached. As ugly as it looks on Friday afternoon, it's not all that bad yet.
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news.goldseek.com >> 22 July 2007 |
Fun in the Subprime Summer
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
This week I am already in Maine and getting ready for a weekend of fishing with my son Trey, so I am going to take off a week from writing the letter. I spoke this morning to the Maine chapter of the Chartered Financial Analysts in Portland. The question of the day was about the subprime markets, private equity and the debt markets in general. And these are the right questions, as this is the part of our economic world with the most risk.
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news.goldseek.com >> 15 July 2007 |
The Birth/Death Ratio
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
Is the economy slowing down or is it getting ready to go on a new tear? Judging by the run-up in the Dow, the answer is a major turnaround for the economy in the last half of the year, from the close-to-recession numbers of the first quarter. So, what has happened to my forecast of a slowdown or minor recession? This week we look at some hidden problems in the employment data, analyze retail sales and consumer spending, and speculate about the last half of the year.
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news.goldseek.com >> 8 July 2007 |
Where is the Real Risk in the Subprime Debacle?
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
This week we continue to look at an alphabet soup of problems: RMBSs, CDOs, Alt-A, BBB and - a new acronym to put on your radar screen - the very useful CDS. When does an AAA rating not mean an offering is ready for prime time? What type of contagion are we seeing from the Bear Stearns blow-up? I survey my friends in the hedge funds space, trying to find some evidence of cracks in the foundation, and let you know what I hear. We will again look at a wide variety of items and see if we can discern some connections.
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news.goldseek.com >> 1 July 2007 |
$250 Billion in Subprime Losses?
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
Is the subprime mortgage market collapsing before our eyes, or did we avoid a disaster as Bear Stearns stepped up to the plate with $3.2 billion to help its ailing funds? As we will see from the data, the problems in the subprime world are not over. The Fat Lady has not sung. But will the problems in this market contaminate the rest of the liquidity-driven markets? Is the party over? Not according to the high-yield markets. In this week's letter, we look at what could be the real problem in the next half of the year.
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news.goldseek.com >> 24 June 2007 |
Blame It On Stability
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
This week we look at length at an outstanding new book just hitting the bookstores by good friend Paul McCulley (of Pimco fame), called Your Financial Edge. The main themes will give me an opportunity to weave in a few thoughts about some recent data, and a lengthy telephone interview with Paul, done just before writing this week's letter, will bring us up to date on his current thinking. I think readers will take away a few good ideas, so let's jump right in.
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news.goldseek.com >> 17 June 2007 |
Be Careful What You Wish For
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
Be careful for what you wish, because you may get it, and sometimes as H. L. Mencken wrote, you get it good and hard. The collective brain deficit trust, otherwise known as the US Congress, wish for the Chinese to revalue their currency upwards. Today we look at why they may indeed get their wish and why it is not going to produce their desired results.
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news.goldseek.com >> 3 June 2007 |
A Little Discretionary Spending, Please
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
Are we on a slippery slope of a recession, or was last quarter's weak GDP a turning point? This week's travel shortened e-letter looks at recent data and re-visits some thoughts on consumer spending from friend Joe Ellis' superb book called Ahead of the Curve. This week I wrote from a rainy Edinburgh, Scotland, although this afternoon was pleasant enough, allowing me to walk around some. But on to important matters.
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news.goldseek.com >> 28 May 2007 |
The US Mortgage Market - Overexposed and Overrated
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
This week we look at the US mortgage market to see what fallout there is from the subprime mortgage woes. It is both less of a problem and/or more of a problem, depending on your perspective, as I predicted it would be last year. Score one for your analyst, which said score is needed as the stock market continues to rise in spite of my concerns in the face of a slowing economy.
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news.goldseek.com >> 20 May 2007 |
Are We There Yet?
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
I have been suggesting since last fall that the potential for a recession/serious slowdown was quite high, brought on primarily by weakness in the housing market. Today we look at why I still hold that view, as the data shows a slow leak of the housing bubble and consumer spending starting to slow as inflation eats into buying power, even though some data shows that some parts of the economy are still strong. Unlike Bernanke, who this week said that the problems in the subprime markets will not spill over into the economy, I expect the subprime mortgage predicament to infect the whole housing market and create a drag on the whole economy.
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news.goldseek.com >> 13 May 2007 |
A Most Disruptive Technology
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
This week we look at what I think will be another Black Swan with the potential to be one of the most disruptive introductions of technology in the last 20 years. In one sense, it is entirely predictable. On the other hand, it will fundamentally alter the economic equations of the telecommunications world, as well as spawn whole new enterprises and enable radical new ancillary technologies.
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news.goldseek.com >> 6 May 2007 |
Stuck in the Middle With You
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
The recent data on the economy is stronger than was expected. Does this mean that the slowdown we have seen for the past few quarters is behind us? Other data suggests the economy is weakening (witness the very slow 1.3% GDP growth last quarter). This week we look at the seeming disconnect in the data, briefly examine where the real stock market booms are happening, and re-visit the housing markets. It's a lot for what will be a quick letter (and lots of charts), as I am trying to leave town, so let's jump right in.
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news.goldseek.com >> 29 April 2007 |
The Last Bear Standing
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
This week we look at the growing disconnect between the US economy and the stock markets. One is slowing and the other is exploding to the upside. One of my mentors once said that it is the duty of the markets to prove the most-possible people wrong. So far, I am clearly in the wrong category. We will look at some explanations as to why, ponder if this can continue, and more. (I will conclude the letter I promised last week in next week's letter. There were still a few details I needed to get it ready.)
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news.goldseek.com >> 22 April 2007 |
What? Me Worry?
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
It will come as no surprise to this audience that there are a few things that worry me. I often write about problems in the markets. Subprime mortgage contagion, earnings shortfalls, a slowdown in consumer spending are all on my worry list. But I am not just your average amateur worrier. I am a professional worrier. I get paid to worry. For a professional, worrying is an art form. The amateur worrier spends way too much time worrying about events that are likely to happen. A true professional worries about the unlikely events that create the most problems. It is the things we are not worried about which can cause us the most harm.
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news.goldseek.com >> 15 April 2007 |
What Does a Dollar of Debt Get You?
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
This weekend I am in La Jolla at good friend Rob Arnott's conference. Princeton Professor Burton Malkiel, of Random Walk fame, will be one of the luminaries at the annual Research Affiliates Advisory Panel. So, with that thought in mind, this week we take a seemingly random walk through the data to see if we can discern a trend. How much debt does it take to grow GDP? You probably missed it, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics gives us data that contradicts the recent labor numbers. Why is consumer sentiment so moribund? And that recession I predicted for 2007? I have a few thoughts on that as well. It should make for an interesting letter with a lot of great charts and graphs.
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news.goldseek.com >> 1 April 2007 |
Draw the Curve, Then Plot the Data
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
This week we look at something which has far more potential to hurt the economy than subprime loans - the US Congress. We muse on inflation data and why the economy may do better than I think.
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news.goldseek.com >> 25 March 2007 |
All Subprime, All the Time
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
At the risk of being all subprime, all the time, this week we look at what I think are the real risks for the economy as a result of the subprime debacle. How can one side say it is a contained risk (and in one sense it is) and not a problem for the economy while another side says it will drag the US into a recession and thus be a drag on the world economy? The answers will give us a handle on the whole issue, as we look at how the problem developed.
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news.goldseek.com >> 18 March 2007 |
The Fingers of Housing Instability
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
This week we look at the yen carry trade, delve deeper into the mortgage lending world, and see if we can find a possible connection between them and the economy in general through something called complexity theory. As I have written for many months, I think the subprime mortgage problems are going to be the catalyst for a recession. We look at some ways that the contagion in this small part of the housing market could spread.
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news.goldseek.com >> 11 March 2007 |
China and the Hedge Fund Dragon
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
China and the Hedge Fund Dragon
The Need for More Derivatives
Cockroach Theory and the Subprime Mortgage Market
Scotland, London, Malta, and Geneva
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news.goldseek.com >> 4 March 2007 |
The End Of Complacency?
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
This week we look at the recent upspike in volatility, see if we can connect some dots with the recent slew of earnings downgrades and the problems in the subprime mortgage world, and follow the money as risk is being taken off the table. I don't "buy" the China problem, but there may be an Asian connection. Let's try and keep it simple as we try and see what's behind curtain #3 labeled "Which direction is the stock market headed?"
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news.goldseek.com >> 25 February 2007 |
The 51.9% Recession
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
What are the odds of a recession? According to a recent Fed study, they may be 51.9%. Close enough to 50-50 for government work. We analyze this study, look at a few graphs which show a major disconnect between the housing market and the US manufacturing and services sectors, and then close with some comments on yet another proposed rule change. But let's start with a few housekeeping items.
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news.goldseek.com >> 18 February 2007 |
Gold, Housing and the Yield Curve
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
I have often written about the high probability of a recession following an inverted yield curve (where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates), based upon research which suggests the yield curve is our most reliable indicator of future recessions. I am often asked whether a yield curve causes a recession. The (very) short answer is no. But then what is the mechanism that makes it so reliable? Is it different this time? How can we believe that the economy has a few bumps in its future when things are just so darn good? We ponder these questions in today's letter, as well as peruse the "shocking" housing data released this morning, and look at a very interesting chart on gold.
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news.goldseek.com >> 11 February 2007 |
Out of Africa
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
It had been 12 or more years since I was last in South Africa. The difference cannot be more palpable. The last time I was there, talking with friends and acquaintances about the future of South Africa, the mood was so pessimistic that you had to remove sharp objects from the vicinity before you started the conversation. This week, I want to give you some impressions of not only South Africa, but talk a little about emerging markets in general.
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news.goldseek.com >> 4 February 2007 |
A Raging Bull
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
This week's letter is the text of the keynote speech I gave last night at the Raging Bull awards in Johannesburg. There are a number of awards given to the various mutual funds (called here a unit trust or a collective investment scheme) that had the best performance in their respective categories over the last 3-5 years. The winning funds had some very impressive performance indeed. It was a black tie dinner with about 400 attendees. It was one of the more elegant events I have attended in my life.
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news.goldseek.com >> 28 January 2007 |
A New Definition of Rich
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
I am in South Africa as this week's letter is being sent out; so it is with some irony that the letter is focused on a topic that generally concerns only US-based investors, although what the SEC does has an effect on regulatory bodies abroad. This is a letter you may want to forward to your friends and associates.
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news.goldseek.com >> 21 January 2007 |
Capital Keeps Falling on My Head
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
Are we overbought and overvalued? Maybe. Is inflation coming under control? Maybe not. Did housing construction rebound last month? No. The only rebound was in the statistics. (I know readers will be shocked to learn that some statistics just may not actually be what the headline says.) We look at all this and more as we ponder a world awash in liquidity.
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news.goldseek.com >> 15 January 2007 |
Should Oil Be $40 or $70?
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
I got a lot of mail as usual from readers about my annual forecast. It was about evenly divided between those who think I am too much of an optimist and those who think the economy will avoid a recession. There are a number of readers who think we have already seen the bottom, and that 2007 will be a banner growth year.
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news.goldseek.com >> 7 January 2007 |
Forecast 2007: The Goldilocks Recession
By: John Mauldin, Millenium Wave Advisors
How has another year come and gone so quickly? It seems like someone hit the fast forward button. And once again, all too soon, it is time for me to demonstrate my masochistic nature and write a forecast issue. Rather than going into details on every topic, I will try and stick to the big picture and leave the fine points for later letters.