news.goldseek.com >> 15 November 2009

If This is Recovery...
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
No one goes into Wal-Mart and asks to pay extra sales tax. Thus sales taxes are reasonable barometers for retail sales. This week we look at how taxes are doing in a period of economic recovery. Then we turn our eyes to a very interesting (and sobering) analysis of possible future unemployment rates.

news.goldseek.com >> 8 November 2009

The Glide Path Option
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
The present contains all possible futures. But not all futures are good ones. Some can be quite cruel. The one we actually get is dictated by the choices we make. For the last few months I have been addressing the choices in front of us, economically speaking. Today I am going to summarize them, and maybe we can look for some signposts that will tell us which path we're headed down.

news.goldseek.com >> 1 November 2009

Catching Argentinian Disease
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
I have been in South America this week, speaking nine times in five days, interspersed with lots of meetings. The conversation kept coming back to the prospects for the dollar, but I was just as interested in talking with money managers and business people who had experienced the hyperinflation of Argentina and Brazil. How could such a thing happen?

news.goldseek.com >> 25 October 2009

The Best of Times
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
What's a Fed to do? We get talk about tightening and taking away the easy credit, but we got the fourth largest monetization on record last week. This week we examine the elements of deflation, look at some banking statistics that are not optimistic, and then I write a reply to my great friend Bill Bonner about why it's the best of times to be young. I think you will get a few thought-provoking ideas here and there.

news.goldseek.com >> 18 October 2009

Muddle Through, R.I.P?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
I first wrote about the Muddle Through Economy in 2002, and the term has more or less become a theme we have returned to from time to time. In 2007 I wrote that we would indeed get back to a Muddle Through Economy after the end of the coming recession. If you Google the term, at least for the first four pages more than half the references are to this e-letter. I get a lot of flak from both bulls and bears about being either too optimistic or too pessimistic. Being in the muddle through middle is comfortable to me.

news.goldseek.com >> 11 October 2009

Killing the Goose
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Today we look at the possibility that the fiscal path of the enormous US government deficits we are on could indeed kill the goose, or harm it so badly it will make the lost decades that Japan has suffered seem like a stroll in the park.

news.goldseek.com >> 4 October 2009

Another Finger of Instability
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This weekend I turn 60 and have been a little more introspective than usual. I am often told that the letter I wrote well over three years ago on ubiquity and complexity theory and the future of the economy was the best letter I have ever done. I went back to read it, and it has aged well. I basically outlined how a financial crisis would unfold, and now it has.

news.goldseek.com >> 27 September 2009

Welcome to the New Normal
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Unemployment is high and rising. But if the recession is over, won't employment start to rise? The quick answer is no. We look deeper into the Statistical Recovery and find yet more reasons to be concerned about near-term deflation. This week we consider all things unemployment and ponder the need to create at least 15 million jobs in the next five years to return to a full-employment economy - and the implications for both the US and world economies if we don't.

news.goldseek.com >> 21 September 2009

The Hole in FDIC
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week we continue to look at what powers the forces of deflation. As I continue to stress, getting the fundamental question answered correctly is the most important issue we face going forward. And the problem is that we cannot use the usual historical comparisons. This week we look at one more factor: bank lending.

news.goldseek.com >> 13 September 2009

Elements of Deflation, Part 2
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Just as water is formed by the basic elements hydrogen and oxygen, deflation has its own fundamental components. Last week we started exploring those elements, and this week we continue. I feel that the most fundamental of decisions we face in building investment portfolios is correctly deciding whether we are faced with inflation or deflation in our future.

news.goldseek.com >> 8 September 2009

The Elements of Deflation
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
As every school child knows, water is formed by the two elements of hydrogen and oxygen in a very simple formula we all know as H2O. Today we start a series that starts with the question, What are the elements that comprise deflation? Far from being simple, the "equation" for deflation is as complex as that of DNA.

news.goldseek.com >> 23 August 2009

Capacity Utilization Set to Rise
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week we further explore why this recovery will be a Statistical Recovery, or one that, as someone said, is a recovery only a statistician could love. We look at capacity utilization, more on housing, some thoughts on debt and deflation, and some intriguing charts on volatility in the last secular bear-market cycle.

news.goldseek.com >> 16 August 2009

The Statistical Recovery, Part Two
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
A few weeks ago I first used the term "statistical recovery" to describe the nature of today's economic environment. Today we are going to further explore that concept, as it is important to have a real understanding of what is happening.

news.goldseek.com >> 9 August 2009

Six Impossible Things Before Breakfast
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
The Efficient Market Hypothesis, according to Shiller, is one of the most remarkable errors in the history of economic thought. EMH should be consigned to the dustbin of history. We need to stop teaching it, and brainwashing the innocent. Rob Arnott tells a lovely story of a speech he was giving to some 200 finance professors. He asked how many of them taught EMH - pretty much everyone's hand was up. Then he asked how many of them believed it. Only two hands stayed up!

news.goldseek.com >> 26 July 2009

The Statistical Recovery
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
A lot of bullish commentators are talking about a recovery being in the works, and they may very well be right. But it is not going to look like any recovery worthy of the name. This week we look at what I will call The Statistical Recovery. But first we take a look at what China is doing, as we continue our look at the rest of the world and ponder whether it is time to brace ourselves for an extended bout with the Muddle Through Economy*. (And yes, there is an asterisk.)

news.goldseek.com >> 20 July 2009

Europe on the Brink
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
We have avoided Armageddon, at least for now. The cost to the US taxpayer has been a few trillion. Some in the media are loudly announcing the end of the recession. But we are not out of the woods yet. There are a few more bumps in the road. Actually, some of them are quite steep hills. As big as the subprime problem? Maybe.

news.goldseek.com >> 13 July 2009

Buddy, Can You Spare $5 Trillion?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
There is no doubt that the US is in financial trouble. Those talking of a strong recovery are just not dealing with reality. But the US is in better shape than a lot of countries. This week, we begin by looking at Japan. I have written for years about how large their debt-to-GDP ratio is, yet they keep on issuing more debt and seemingly getting away with it.

news.goldseek.com >> 28 June 2009

The End of the Recession?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Last week we began a series on data abuse, about how various commentators twist and torture data to make it say what they want, or fail to look at the details underneath the headlines. Predictably, there is a lot of fodder this week as we forge ahead into this ripe territory.

news.goldseek.com >> 21 June 2009

This Time It's Different*
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
I have often written that the four most dangerous words in the investment world are "This Time It's Different." If memory serves me, I have written several e-letters disparaging various personages who have uttered those very words, and gone one to confirm later that it wasn't different. It almost never is. And yet - and yet! - I am going to make the case over the next few weeks that it really is different this time, with only a lonely asterisk as a caveat.

news.goldseek.com >> 31 May 2009

This Way There Be Dragons
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This Way Be Dragons
A Housing Update
More Prime Foreclosures In Our Future
Are We Paying Too Much for Health Care?
Naples, London, and Home for June

news.goldseek.com >> 17 May 2009

Faith-Based Economics
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Why does government data need to be revised so often? Is it conspiracy, as some claim, or is it methodology? And if it is methodology that leads to faulty data, then why not change the methodology? Is unemployment a lagging indicator, as conventional wisdom suggests? We look again at the underlying assumptions to suggest that things are not always the same. And finally, we look at unsustainable trends, fiscal deficits, and health care -- there is a connection.

news.goldseek.com >> 10 May 2009

Green Shoots or Dandelion Weeds?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Go to Google. Type in "green shoots." In about a 10th of a second you will find 28,900,000 references. Scrolling through a few pages, you find a lot of references to the beginning of the end of the recession. Today we look at some data to see if we can indeed see the end. Most readers will be surprised to know that the number of people employed in the US went up (!) in April. Yet so did the unemployment rate. Is that green shoot just another dandelion weed in our economic garden?

news.goldseek.com >> 3 May 2009

Sell in May and Go Away
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
The old adage that one should "sell in May and walk away" has been around for years. I mentioned that bromide about this time last year, urging readers to head for the sidelines if they had not already done so. I was also suggesting a strategic retreat in August of 2006 (after which the markets went up 20% before plummeting). In this week's letter we look at the actual data and offer up a fresh viewpoint.

news.goldseek.com >> 26 April 2009

Back to the Future Recession
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week we look at the second half of my speech from a few weeks ago at my annual Strategic Investment Conference in La Jolla. If you have not read the first part, you can review it here. The first few paragraphs are a repeat from last week, to give us some context. Please note that this is somewhat edited from the original, and I have added a few ideas.

news.goldseek.com >> 19 April 2009

The Trend May Not Be Your Friend
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Two weeks ago I presented my thoughts on the current economic situation at my 6th Annual Strategic Investment Conference in La Jolla (co-hosted with Altegris Investments). The speech was well-received, at least to judge from the comment forms. So this week and next, we are going to revisit that talk (with a few edits). Let's start with a little set-up to explain the first few paragraphs.

news.goldseek.com >> 12 April 2009

Is That Recovery We See?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
The market, we keep hearing and reading, is telling us that there is recovery around the corner. And pundits point to data that seems to suggest the worst is behind us. The leading economic indicators, while still down significantly, seem to be in the process of bottoming. There is a large amount of stimulus in the pipeline. Mark-to-market has been modified. Housing seems to be finding a bottom, if you look at the rise in sales from January. And so on.

news.goldseek.com >> 5 April 2009

Deep Inside the Dow
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Tonight (Saturday) some 450 people will come together in San Diego to honor Richard Russell, who has been writing the Dow Theory Letter for over 50 years. In that spirit, in today's letter we are going to look deep inside the Dow, back to its very roots. The Dow is a price-weighted index as opposed to a cap-weighted index. Does that make a difference in performance? Specifically, does it affect how the Dow has performed since it was expanded to 30 names in 1928? There are some real surprises we have found, and I think you will find this letter very interesting.

news.goldseek.com >> 29 March 2009

Why Bother With Bonds?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Investments
Why Bother With Bonds?

So Then, Bonds for the Long Run?

P/E Ratios at 200?

Really?

Mark-to-Market Slip Slides AwayHousing Sales Improve?

Not HardlyLa Jolla, Copenhagen, London, etc.

news.goldseek.com >> 22 March 2009

Solving the Housing Crisis
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Investments
Solving the Housing Crisis
Housing Could Drop Another 20% in Pricing
Buy A Home, Get a Green Card
A Real Stimulus Package
Las Vegas, La Jolla, and the OC

news.goldseek.com >> 15 March 2009

The Swiss Start Their Engines
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week we look at the Land of the Rising Sun. Japan is going through major upheavals, and they will have consequences all over the world. And what are those wild and crazy Swiss central bankers up to? It's time for another round of competitive devaluation. And of course I have to look at the recent Barron's cover story, about how stocks are cheap. There's a lot to cover.

news.goldseek.com >> 8 March 2009

The Law of Unintended Consequences
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Rules have consequences. And sometimes they have unintended consequences. If I told you that the US government was going to give multiple tens of billions of taxpayer dollars to hedge funds and private investors, you would justifiably not be happy. I think the word angry would come to mind.

news.goldseek.com >> 1 March 2009

Buy and Hope Investing
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week Professor Jeremy Siegel (author of Stocks for the Long Run) had an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal showing that stocks are now cheap. I was on Tech Ticker, and Henry Blodgett challenged me about my e-letter last week, where I talked about how expensive stocks are. So which is it? We look at Professor Siegel's work -- and I let you decide.

news.goldseek.com >> 22 February 2009

While Rome Burns
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week's letter is likely to lose me a few friends, though. I am going to start a series on money management, portfolio construction, and money managers. It will be back to the basics for both new and long-time readers. I am not sure how long it will take (in terms of weeks), but it is likely to make a few people upset and provoke some strong disagreements. Let's just say this is not stocks for the long run.

news.goldseek.com >> 16 February 2009

Time for a Reality Check
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
It is not just the US that is in recession. The world is slowing down, and rapidly. This week we quickly survey the rest of the world, and then come back to the US. We follow up with the implications for corporate earnings worldwide, and specifically address my speculations about earnings forecasts for 2009.

news.goldseek.com >> 8 February 2009

Thoughts on the Continuing Crisis
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
When confronted about an apparent change of his opinions, John Maynard Keynes is reported to have said, "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" The earnings season for the 4th quarter is almost 80% complete, and the facts are dismal. It is worse than the current data shows, and could get uglier.

news.goldseek.com >> 1 February 2009

Trading With the Big Boys
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week we are going to do something a little different. I am in Bermuda taking a little weekend R&R after a speech, as well as working on my book. There is not the time for the usual letter this week, but I have asked Barry Ritholtz to write about his new trading program, FusionIQ, for reasons I will talk about below.

news.goldseek.com >> 18 January 2009

The Endgame
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Deflation? Stimulus? Deleveraging? Recession? A soft depression? A return to a bull market? With all that is going on, how does it all end up? When we get to where we are going, where will we be? In chess, the endgame refers to the stage of the game when there are few pieces left on the board. The line between middlegame and endgame is often not clear, and may occur gradually or with the quick exchange of a few pairs of pieces. The endgame, however, tends to have different characteristics from the middlegame, and the players have correspondingly different strategic concerns. And in the current economic endgame, your strategy needs to consist of more than hope for a renewed bull market.

news.goldseek.com >> 11 January 2009

Forecast 2009: Deflation and Recession
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Where are we headed in 2009? We will explore that in detail over the next few issues of Thoughts from the Frontline, but today we will start with some of the larger forces which will have a major impact on the economies of the world, and I will end with my usual attempt to forecast the various markets. We will look at deflation, deleveraging, the fallout from the stimulus plans (note plural), housing, consumer spending, unemployment, and a lot more.

news.goldseek.com >> 4 January 2009

2008: Annus Horribilis, RIP
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week we look at a very interesting, if not altogether encouraging, piece of research on the length and severity of recessions that come during periods of financial crisis, which can apply to not just the US but all countries that are involved in the current crisis. But being forewarned is better than blindly stumbling through, so we will take some time to peruse it. Then we (briefly) look at the depth of the manufacturing numbers in the US, which leads us into the recent bout of earnings downgrades and some thoughts as to where that might suggest the market is going.

news.goldseek.com >> 21 December 2008

I Meant to Do That
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
The Fed has taken interest rates to zero. They have clearly started a program of quantitative easing. What exactly does that mean? Are we all now Japanese? Is the Fed pushing on a string, as Japan has done for almost two decades? The quick answer is no, but the quick answer doesn't tell us much. We may not be in for a two-decades-long Japanese malaise, but we will experience a whole new set of circumstances. In what will hopefully be a shorter holiday version of the e-letter, I will tackle these questions and more.

news.goldseek.com >> 5 April 2008