news.goldseek.com >> 5 February 2012

Who Took My Easy Button?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Everyone knows by now that the US is facing difficult choices. Depending on what assumptions you use, the unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare are between $50 and $80 trillion and rising. It really doesn't matter, as there is no way that much money can be found, given the current system, even under the best of assumptions. Things not only must change, they will change. Either we will make the difficult choices or those changes will be forced by the market. And the longer we put off the difficult choices, the more painful the consequences.

news.goldseek.com >> 29 January 2012

The Transparency Trap
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week we take a brief pause in our series on the choices facing the developed world to look at some items that are catching my attention. We will get back to the US next week, as somehow I think we will not solve our problems between now and next Friday, and there will be plenty left for us to talk about. So today we look at the “shift” in Fed policy, and at the balance sheets of central banks, US GDP, Portugal and the ECB, the LTRO policy, and yes, there’s even a tidbit on Greece. Plenty of ground to cover, so with no “but first,” let’s get started.

news.goldseek.com >> 22 January 2012

Staring into the Abyss
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Europe's leaders are committed to keeping both the euro and the eurozone as it is. But for it to do so, everything must change, as the wonderful quote from the 1958 Italian novel suggests. This is no easy task, as no one wants a change that will impact them negatively; and there is no change that will allow things to stay the same that does not impact all severely, as we will see. In the third part of a continuing series, we look at the actual options that are available on the menu of choices, or as one group called it, the menu of pain.

news.goldseek.com >> 16 January 2012

The End of Europe?
By: John Mauldin
One of the interesting things about being in Hong Kong is that I get to see the weekend edition of the Financial Times 12 hours early. And the headlines were not all that pleasant. As I promised last week, we will cast our eyes to Europe and ponder what is in store for Europe for the year and the next five years. And what do we read on page 2? The "ECB raps revisions to draft a fiscal pact." Seems they feel there are too many loopholes, which will make the document meaningless … somewhat like the treaty they have now.

news.goldseek.com >> 8 January 2012

2012: A Year of Choices
By: John Mauldin
2012 will the year that the consequences of the choices made by nations of the so-called developed world will begin to truly manifest themselves in the economic realm. We are in the closing chapters of the current Debt Supercycle, with different countries strewn out along the path, some at more advanced stages than others but all headed for a destination that will force major decisions if politically painful actions are not taken. The longer that process takes, the fewer options that are available and the more painful the outcomes. Some countries (think Greece, et al.) have a choice between dire economic circumstances and disastrous. The option for merely difficult choices was passed long ago, and the rules are such that there is no going back to where you started without a different but equally painful outcome.

news.goldseek.com >> 2 January 2012

Collateral Damage
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Which path will we take? If we could only grow our way out of our sovereign debt problems. But growing debt creates even more problems if not dealt with, making it even more difficult to deal with; yet getting the debt and deficit under control brings its own form of pain. As I keep pointing out, there are no easy choices left. Some countries must choose between difficult and very bad, and others are faced with either disaster or calamity. Greece simply gets to choose what it wants to be the cause of a depression. Long and slow or fast and deep? Choose wisely.

news.goldseek.com >> 27 December 2011

Your Three Investing Opponents
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
It’s Christmas Eve and that time of year when we start thinking about what we did in the past year and what we want to do in the next. Why do we make the mistakes we make (over and over and over?) and how do we avoid them in the future? If it seems to be part of our basic human condition, that’s because it is. Recently I have been having a running conversation with Barry Ritholtz on the psychology of investing (something we both enjoy discussing and writing about). Since I am busily researching my annual forecast issue (and taking the day off), I asked Barry to share a few of his thoughts on why we do the things we do. He gives us even more, exploring the three main opponents we face when we enter the arena of investing.

news.goldseek.com >> 18 December 2011

The Center Cannot Hold
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This coming week we shall likely see Congress pass an extension of the "temporary" payroll tax cut, first enacted as a stimulus to the economy in January of 2011. As I write, the extension is just for two months. We'll leave aside the politics and look at the economic implications of the extension, and then go on to examine the deficit in the US.

news.goldseek.com >> 11 December 2011

A Player to Be Named Later
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
We have come to the end of yet another European Summit that was supposed to be the one to fix the problem. If you are confused as to what happened then you are not alone. Was it something we will look back on in ten years and say, "This was where it all started," or will it be viewed as just another meeting in what will prove to be a string of even more meetings? I will argue that both views are the correct answer, depending on your frame of reference.

news.goldseek.com >> 5 December 2011

Time to Bring Out the Howitzers
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
It is now common to use the term bazooka when referring the actions of governments and central banks as they try to avert a credit crisis. And this week we saw a coordinated effort by central banks to use their bazookas to head off another 2008-style credit disaster. The market reacted as if the crisis is now over and we can get on to the next bull run. Yet, we will see that it wasn't enough.

news.goldseek.com >> 27 November 2011

Changing the Rules in the Middle of the Game
By: John Mauldin
Angela Merkel is leading the call for a rule change, a rewiring of the basic treaty that binds the EU. But is it both too much and too late? The market action suggests that time is indeed running out, and so we’ll look at the likely consequences. Then I glance over the other way and take notice of news out of China that may be of import. Plus a few links for your weekend listening “pleasure.” There is lots to cover, so let’s get started.

news.goldseek.com >> 21 November 2011

Print or Perish
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Europe is again at center stage. At conferences and meetings and in private conversations, it is the topic of the hour. I have thought a lot this week about Europe and its impact, so once again we delve into what is an evolving situation. This time, we look at possible impacts on the markets, as we ponder the questions, “Are we back to 2008?” and “Is there a Lehman in our future?” and I try once again to keep from making this a book-length letter. And I close with some brief thoughts I brought back from DC on the Super Committee and the deficit cuts.

news.goldseek.com >> 14 November 2011

Where is the ECB Printing Press?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Europe remains the focus of markets, and rightly so. But the picture is not as clear as one would like. Different analysts point to different problems – if only this one problem could be solved, then all this would go away, they tend to say. Sadly, it is not one problem but three that must be solved, and none of them is easy. In today’s letter I try and offer a basic primer on the problems facing Europe.

news.goldseek.com >> 6 November 2011

Where Will the Jobs Come From?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
I find myself in Liam's taxi on the beautiful drive to Kilkenny through the Irish countryside for a few hours this very early Friday morning, so what better time to begin writing about employment than in a country that is struggling, just as most of the developed world is, to find good jobs for its people. I'm on my way to a conference that will talk about the economics that is driving the world's leading governments to distraction in Cannes. Is Greece going to vote? Take the money? Will it be an orderly default? Should Ireland default? Whatever I write, the situation will change as soon as I hit the send button tonight.

news.goldseek.com >> 30 October 2011

European Summit: A Plan with No Details
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Exactly what happened in Europe yesterday? The market reacted like it was the Second Coming of the Solution to End All Solutions. No problem here! The European debt crisis is solved! But if you look deeply (almost always dangerous when it comes to Europe) there is more to the market "melt-up" than simple euphoria and relief. What you find is a very disturbing unintended consequence that will come back to haunt us, as, sadly, I have written about in the past.

news.goldseek.com >> 16 October 2011

Can "It" Happen Here?
By: John Mauldin
The beginning of the end of the Weimar Republic was some 89 years ago this week. There is a stream of opinion that the US is headed for the same type of end. How else can it be, given that we owe some $75-80 trillion dollars in the coming years, over 5 times current GDP and growing every year? Remember the good old days of about 5-6 years ago (if memory serves me correctly) when it was only $50 trillion?

news.goldseek.com >> 9 October 2011

An Irish Haircut
By: John Mauldin, Frontline Thoughts
Two Insights from Ireland
The Irish Chamber of Commerce
An Irish Haircut
New York, South Africa, Back to Ireland ... and Pushups

news.goldseek.com >> 2 October 2011

Tough Choices, Big Opportunities
By: John Mauldin, Frontline Thoughts
Tough Choices, Big Opportunities

Ireland, Geneva, New York, South Africa, and Atlanta

news.goldseek.com >> 18 September 2011

Twist and Shout?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
What in the wide, wild world of monetary policy is the Fed doing, giving essentially unlimited funds to European banks? What are they seeing that we do not? And is this a precursor to even more monetary easing at this next week’s extraordinary FOMC meeting, expanded to a two-day session by Bernanke? Can we say “Operation Twist?” Or maybe “Twist and Shout?” Not many charts this week, but some things to think about.

news.goldseek.com >> 12 September 2011

Preparing for a Credit Crisis
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week we turn our eyes first to Europe and then the US, and ask about the possibility of a yet another credit crisis along the lines of late 2008. I then outline a few steps you might want to consider now rather than waiting until the middle of a crisis. It is possible we can avoid one but, as I admit, whether we do (and the extent of such a crisis) depends on the political leaders of the developed world (the US, Europe, and Japan) making the difficult choices and doing what is necessary. And in either case, there are some areas of investing you clearly want to avoid. Finally, I turn to that watering-hole favorite, the weather, and offer you a window into the coming seasons. Can we catch a break here? There is a lot to cover, so we will jump right in.

news.goldseek.com >> 5 September 2011

It’s All About the Jobs… and Gold
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week we briefly look at yesterday morning’s dismal unemployment report, then drop back and survey some other very eye-opening data on employment. Some groups are (surprise) doing better than others. What would it take to get us back to “normal,” whatever that is? I give you a link to some webinars I will be involved in and finish with the answer to the question I am asked most often, “What do you think about gold?” I tell all. There are lots of topics to cover, so let’s get started with no “but firsts.”

news.goldseek.com >> 28 August 2011

The End of the World, Part 1
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
It’s not really the end of the world, but to read some of the analysis and data over the past week, it’s hard not to wonder if it’s not the beginning of the Endgame at the very least. There is more to cover than I can really do justice to, but we will just start. We HAVE to look at the US data first (briefly) and then on to Europe, where it will may be the end of the euro experiment, depending on two voting populations. Can you spell “Banking Crisis,” gentle reader?

news.goldseek.com >> 21 August 2011

The Recession of 2011?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
The data this week was just ugly. Even the uptick in the leading economic indicators, seized upon by so many talking heads, must have a large asterisk beside it. This week we look at the increasing probability that we are headed for recession, and the follow-on implications. Then I take a perilous and speculative journey into the realm of the political, commenting on Texas (and my) Governor Rick Perry’s rather interesting comments about the Fed and Ben Bernanke. There is a lot to cover, and lots of charts, so we will jump right in. But please read at the end about two events coming up in the next few months that you might be very interested in attending.

news.goldseek.com >> 14 August 2011

The Beginning of the Endgame
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
I came away from Maine, and meeting with some of the most astute economists in the world, with a series of impressions that will be the core of this week’s letter. On Friday night, S&P downgraded US debt, and of course I need to comment on that. But as we talked the next two days and into the nights, I came increasingly to the opinion that this is indeed the Beginning of the Endgame. I must admit it has come about faster than I thought. But that is the nature of these things. And so, with no “but first,” let’s jump right in.

news.goldseek.com >> 7 August 2011

The Case for Going Global Is Stronger Than Ever
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
As will be clear below, I had finished an earlier version of this week’s e-letter, but the events of the last few minutes require a few paragraphs. As I write at the end of the letter, Bloomberg kept their satellite truck here in Maine, as they had got advance warning of the downgrade by S&P of US debt and wanted to interview a number of the economists here, including your humble analyst.

news.goldseek.com >> 31 July 2011

An Economy at Stall Speed
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
The GDP numbers for the second quarter came in, and there is no way to spin them as anything but ugly. And the revisions were worse. We simply have to take a few pages to look at them. And, as I noted last Monday in the Outside the Box, I met with some ten Senators Monday afternoon (as well as Congressmen in the morning), plus a lot of staff. Getting ten Senators in a room for 90-plus minutes is not so often done. I will report in this week’s letter about our conversation and my impressions.

news.goldseek.com >> 25 July 2011

Kicking the Can Down the Road One More Time
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week we start with the latest version of the solution to the European Crisis, the details of which are now coming out. Then we look at the global economy, and some signs that seem to point to a softening. And then there’s some data on US employment from a friend who has some thoughts about what we really need to do to get unemployment to come down. There is a lot to cover.

news.goldseek.com >> 17 July 2011

Back to the Basics
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week we are going to revisit some themes concerning the problems of the debt and the deficit. I am getting a number of questions, so while long-time readers may have read most of this in one letter or another, it is clearly time for a review, especially given the deficit/debt-ceiling debate. I will probably offend some cherished beliefs of most readers, but that is the nature of the times we live in. It is the time of the Endgame, where things are not as black and white as they have been in the past.

news.goldseek.com >> 10 July 2011

What Happened to the Jobs?
By: John Mauldin, Thoughts From the Frontline
- So How’s That Stimulus Thing Working Out?
- This Time Is Different

news.goldseek.com >> 4 July 2011

My View on the Last Half of the Year
By: John Mauldin, Thoughts From the Frontline
We Should Be OK, Except…
What Happens if There Is a Shock?
And Then There Was No QE
“Endgame” Program
Tulsa for the 4th

news.goldseek.com >> 26 June 2011

The Contagion Risk of Europe
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
I am back from Europe. The last three weeks I spent quite a bit of time talking with money managers and investors from a lot of countries, as well as numerous locals about the European situation. This week’s letter is a collection of my thoughts, as I recover from jet lag. I expect the letter will thus be shorter than usual, but hopefully a few pithy comments will emerge. But first…

news.goldseek.com >> 20 June 2011

Could the Eurozone Break Up?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Is it possible for the Eurozone to break up? It was so inconceivable when they formed it that there is nothing in the treaty that mentions a member leaving or being removed; but now, if we’re to be honest with ourselves, we need to think about how that would work. This Friday finds me in Kiev for the first time ever, with my youngest son, Trey; and the small tour we went on last night was fascinating. Since I know not if I will ever get to this fascinating city again, I am going to write a briefer missive than usual, and it will center on my thoughts on Europe, as I have just had the pleasure of the company of a number of very diverse people, talking about the issues. Nouriel Roubini has graciously agreed to allow me use his latest private piece (very powerful analysis here), where he analyzes the question of whether the Eurozone could actually break up, so you will get the usual solid content (OK, maybe a little better), with my notes at the end. And I’ll close with some thoughts on Kiev.

news.goldseek.com >> 13 June 2011

Time to Get Outraged
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week we look at data from the Bank of International Settlements, by which (if someone does a lot of work) you can figure out how much US banks have written in credit default swaps to banks in Europe on Greek, Irish, and Portuguese debt. The details should not make you happy. I meditate on whether one should buy a house now, and then discuss “the way out” of all this mess and why we will Muddle Through. Oh, and I’ll ask you for help on yet another book project, on creating jobs. And all while trying to finish early enough to go to dinner. So let’s get started.

news.goldseek.com >> 5 June 2011

Economic Whiplash
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Do you feel as if you are suffering from some sort of economic whiplash? Between focusing on the European crisis (and it is a crisis), then looking at softening data in the US and political turmoil in Japan, not to mention the Middle East, you can be forgiven for feeling like someone just slammed into the back of your “economic recovery car.” This week we look at today’s US employment numbers, then at a troubling slowing of economic velocity, precisely at a time when it should be rising, and then consider a powerhouse, must-be-read-twice commentary from Martin Wolf on the European situation.

news.goldseek.com >> 30 May 2011

A Random Walk Through the Minefield
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Brinkmanship is defined as the practice of pushing dangerous events to the verge of disaster in order to achieve the most advantageous outcome. It occurs in international politics, foreign policy, labor relations, and (in contemporary settings) military strategy involving the threatened use of nuclear weapons.

news.goldseek.com >> 22 May 2011

All for One Euro and One Euro for All?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
I have been doing a lot of reading this week, and today we look at some of the thoughts that keep coming to my mind. We’ll think about the declining importance of economic theory (which is a tragedy) and then cast our eyes to Europe, where a truely tragicomic drama is being performed. Who needs the movies when you have the EU? There is a lot to talk about.

news.goldseek.com >> 16 May 2011

Kicking the Can to the End of the Road
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week we turn from the crisis brewing in the US to the one that is coming to a slow boil in Europe. We visit our old friends Greece and Ireland and ponder how this will end. It is all well and good to kick the can down the road, but what happens when you come to the end of the road? The European answer seems to be to haul in the heavy equipment and extend the road.

news.goldseek.com >> 8 May 2011

Muddle Through, or Crisis?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week I finish the two-part letter on the Endgame and give you my thoughts on the economy and how it all plays out over the next five years. This is the second part of a speech I gave last week at the Strategic Investment Conference in La Jolla. It is a rather bold forecast, and fraught with peril and likely errors, but that is my job here.

news.goldseek.com >> 1 May 2011

The Endgame Headwinds
By: John Mauldin
I have written repeatedly about the Endgame in the weekly letter, as well as in a New York Times best-seller on the same topic. By Endgame I mean the period of time in which many of the developed economies of the world will either willingly deleverage or be forced to do so. This age of deleveraging will produce a fundamentally different economic environment, which the McKinsey study referenced below suggests will last anywhere from 4-6 years. Now, whether this deleveraging is orderly, as now appears to be the case in Britain, or more resembles what I have long predicted will be a violent default in Greece, it will create a profoundly different economic world from the one we have lived in for 60 years. This makes sense, in that the prior world was defined by ever-increasing amounts of leverage. Outright reductions in leverage or even a significant slowing of the rate of growth is a whole new ballgame, economically speaking.

news.goldseek.com >> 25 April 2011

The "Miracle" of Compound Inflation
By: John Mauldin, Frontline Thoughts
Albert Einstein is famously quoted as saying, “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world.” And compounding is indeed the topic of this week’s shorter than usual letter, but compounding not of interest but of inflation. As you might expect, I am giving a great deal of thought as to how we get out of our current financial dilemma of too much debt and deficits that are far too high. While I will use US data for our illustration, the principles are the same for any country.

news.goldseek.com >> 17 April 2011

The Cure for High Price
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Today we once again think about the inflation/deflation debate, turn our eyes to Europe and the very interesting election happening there this Sunday, and speculate a little about what could derail the US economy.

news.goldseek.com >> 11 April 2011

The Curve in the Road
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
“I shall be telling this with a sigh,” and it is with a sigh that I write about the twisting, uncertain roads of inflation and deflation. Long-time readers know I have made hard arguments for first deflation and then inflation in the US. But the data says the Fed is not seeing around the bend in the inflationary road all that well. Their signs are not giving them warning, and they are in danger of falling behind the curve. This week’s letter is a thought game in which we entertain the possibility of rising inflation in the US. (It will print a little longer, as there are a lot of charts!)

news.goldseek.com >> 3 April 2011

The Plight of the Working Class
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
I get a lot of email from readers. I recently got an impassioned letter from very-long-time reader Bill K., who asks some very pointed questions about austerity and spending cuts. It is a rather lengthy letter, so I will only quote part of it and use it is the launching pad for this week’s letter, where we look at today’s employment report, but from a little different slant. This letter will no doubt anger a few other long-time readers. I argue this week for the middle, but do so as a survivalist.

news.goldseek.com >> 28 March 2011

Unintended Consequences
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
The central banks of the developed world are printing money and are engaged in a very-low-interest-rate regime. What does that mean for emerging markets? It is more than just a dilemma, it is a tri-lemma – they have problems not just coming and going but also sitting still! I am in Zurich tonight after a long day, with a 4:30 AM wake-up call to get back home, but deadlines are deadlines. So, to make this one easier on me as well as hopefully instructive for you, you will get chapter 15 of my new book, Endgame, in which coauthor Jonathan Tepper and I speculate about the future of emerging markets in general and investments in them in particular.

news.goldseek.com >> 21 March 2011

The End of QE2?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
What happens when the Fed is finished with QE2? I have been letting that filter into my thinking lately as I look at the economic landscape and the data we have seen the past few weeks. Correlation is not causation, as I often say, but all we can do is look back at what happened last time and speculate about the future. A very dangerous occupation, but your fearless analyst will plunge on ahead into the jungle of a very hazy future. You come with me at your own risk!

news.goldseek.com >> 13 March 2011

Inflation and Hyperinflation
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
We know that the world is drowning in too much debt, and it is unlikely that households and governments everywhere will be able to pay down that debt. Doing so in some cases is impossible, and in other cases it will condemn people to many hard years of labor to be debt-free. Inflation, by comparison, appears to be the easy way out for many policy makers.

news.goldseek.com >> 6 March 2011

Are Booming Economies Good for the Markets?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
The economy is doing better, and we will survey some of the highlights. But does this mean the stock market is headed higher? A chart from Louis Gave got me to thinking, and I shot off a few thoughts and questions to Ed Easterling and Vitaliy Katsenelson. What ensued was a lively “battle” of charts and thoughts and more questions, so this week I let you look over my shoulder at our conversation. This letter will print longer than normal, as there are a lot of charts. I think you will find it very thought-provoking, if only a little cautionary. And we start with a look at a survey about what Americans think of the current fiscal deficit and the ways to remedy it.

news.goldseek.com >> 27 February 2011

When Irish Eyes Are Voting
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Just when I’ve begun saying it’s safe to get back in the water, we get some shark sightings. They are a still a long ways off, but we need to keep our eyes on the deep waters and stay close to shore. This week we will look at a variety of data points and see what conclusions we can come to.

news.goldseek.com >> 21 February 2011

A Random Walk Around the Frontlines
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
I am on yet another plane and writing, and I’ll finish this letter in Phoenix. As I start, I am not sure of a theme for this week’s letter, so (with a tip of the hat to my friend Burton Malkiel, who I will see at Rob Arnott’s conference in a few months), today we do a Random Walk Around the Frontlines, surveying what’s going on in the world. We’ll start with the Fed and interest rates, look at inflation, and see how far we get. And I might get a little controversial, but long-time readers know that is not all that unusual.

news.goldseek.com >> 13 February 2011

The Future of Public Debt
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week I find myself in Bangkok, and I must admit to enjoying the experience a great deal, so much so that I am going to preview a portion of my coming book, Endgame, so that I can go back out and play tourist. Next week I get back to my more or less regular schedule, but I think you will enjoy this first portion of chapter six, where we look at an important paper from the Bank of International Settlements on “The Future of Public Debt.” It is not a pretty one.

news.goldseek.com >> 6 February 2011

An Excerpt from Endgame
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Tonight (Thursday) I am flying to Thailand and will “lose” my normal Friday writing day, so I am going to give you a preview of my new book, Endgame, out and in the bookstores next month. This is the beginning of chapter four, and it stands alone quite nicely. It will print out a little longer than normal, as there are a lot of graphs. My co-author Jonathan Tepper and I deal with why there will be slower growth, more volatility, and more frequent recessions in our future.

news.goldseek.com >> 30 January 2011

A Bubble in Complacency
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week I had the privilege of being on the same panel with former Comptroller General David Walker and former Majority Leader (and presidential candidate) Richard Gephardt. A Democrat to the left of me and a self-declared nonpartisan to the right, stuck in the middle and not knowing where the unrehearsed conversation would take us. As it turned out, to a very interesting conclusion, which is the topic of this week’s letter. By way of introduction to those not familiar with them, David M. Walker (born 1951) served as United States Comptroller General from 1998 to 2008, and is now the Founder and CEO of the Comeback America Initiative. Gephardt served in Congress for 28 years, was House Majority Leader from 1989 to 1995 and Minority Leader from 1995 to 2003, running for president in 1988 and 2004.

news.goldseek.com >> 24 January 2011

The Unsustainable Meets the Irresistible
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week’s letter is a result of two lengthy conversations I had today, which have me in a reflective mode. Plus, I finished the last, final edits of my book, all of which is causing me to mull over the unsustainability of the US fiscal situation. There is a true Endgame here, and it may happen before we are ready.

news.goldseek.com >> 16 January 2011

Thinking the Unthinkable
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Last week, in the first part of my annual forecast, I suggested that 2011 would be better than Muddle Through, with GDP growth in the US north of 2.5%. World GDP growth should be even better. This week we look at what I see as the real downside risks to that prediction. Oddly enough, the risks are not in the US but on the other side of both our oceans, in Europe and China. Plus, we will visit a few other items, assuming we have space (Bernanke’s recent speech just screams for some comments).

news.goldseek.com >> 9 January 2011

Forecast 2011: Better than Muddle Through
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
It is time once again to throw caution and wisdom to the wind and actually make my 11th annual forecast. I have to admit this is the most stressful letter I write each year. I do at least 5-10 times more research and thinking about this issue than any other. On a positive note, this may be one of the more optimistic forecast letters I have done in a long time. But there are some asterisks, as always. We will survey the world, trying to peer through the fog of the future. There are some very interesting side trails we will want to explore. Did you know some events in Russia could have real ramifications for inflation in China, the US, and the world? I pay attention to the background details and bring them to you. So settle back as we tour the world.

news.goldseek.com >> 26 December 2010

Some Thoughts on Market Timing
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
I am neither a market timer nor the son of a market timer. I left my office in the Texas Rangers ballpark this year, and they went to the World Series. I bought Dallas Cowboys season tickets for the first time in 50 years, as they went down in flames. But I do know a few very good timers, and they are sending out warnings. Today, we look at a few of these, as it might pay to hedge some of your equity portfolio as we go into the New Year.

news.goldseek.com >> 20 December 2010

Kicking the Can Down the Road
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
How often did we as young kids go down the street kicking a can? "Kicking the can down the road" is a universally understood metaphor that has come to mean not dealing with the problem but putting a band-aid on it, knowing we will have to deal with something maybe even worse in the future. While the US Congress is certainly an adept player at that game, I think the world champions at the present time have to be the political and economic leaders of Europe. Today we look at the extent of the problem and how it could affect every corner of the world, if not played to perfection. Everything must go mostly right or the recent credit crisis will look like a walk in the Jardin des Tuileries in Paris in April compared to what could ensue.

news.goldseek.com >> 15 December 2010

Unintended Consequences
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I seem to remember that one of the reasons for QE2 was to lower rates on the longer end of the US yield curve. Clearly, that has not happened? Today we look at come of the unintended consequences of monetary policy, turn our eyes briefly to consumer debt, and wonder about deflating incomes. There are a lot of very interesting things to cover.

news.goldseek.com >> 5 December 2010

Texas, Ireland and Ten Little Indians
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Why is it that the Irish must take upon themselves the debts of their banks, which in reality are debts owed to German and French banks? Why should the Germans bail out the Greeks and the Spanish? Is the spread of "contagion" starting to taint the debt of Italy and even Belgium, the home of the EU? This week we look over the pond (of the Atlantic) and wonder how all these things will end. As I noted last week, we are getting a string of not so bad news out of the US, so now there are really just two things in the short term to worry about (at least in terms of a positive US GDP): will Congress extend the Bush tax cuts and will Europe sort itself out?

news.goldseek.com >> 28 November 2010

Recessions Are on the Margin
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
And the data out over the last few weeks tells us it is getting better. Does this take us out of the double-dip woods, even as the Fed is lowering its forecast? And what is a recession? Yes, we all know it's when the economy doesn't grow, but we are in a rather unique economic environment, this time. Maybe things are getting better, but is it enough to get us back on the road to full employment?

news.goldseek.com >> 21 November 2010

O Deflation, Where is Thy Sting?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
The CPI was out this week, and it showed a continued drop in inflation. There were those who immediately pointed out that this vindicated the Fed's move to QE2. We have to get ahead of this deflation thing, don't we? Well, maybe, depending on how you measure inflation/deflation. This week we look deep into the BLS website on inflation to see just exactly what it is we are measuring, and then take a walk down Nostalgia Lane. But first we look at what I think we can call The Sputtering Economy, because that will tie into our inflation discussion.

news.goldseek.com >> 14 November 2010

First, Let's Lower the Bar
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
China's currency is rising ever so slowly against the dollar. But is that hurting China? We will look at a very interesting chart and some research. And then we'll gain some more insight into why the employment numbers seemed to surprise. I guess if you lower the bar, it's easier to jump over. I also deal with the pushback from last week's Outside the Box! And Ireland is on my radar. There is a lot to cover, so let's jump in.

news.goldseek.com >> 7 November 2010

Thoughts on Liquidity Traps
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
I am going to beg off from personally writing a letter this week, but will give you something even better. Dr. Lacy Hunt offers us a few cogent thoughts on the unemployment numbers. The headline establishment survey came in much better than expected, but the household survey was much weaker. In addition, Dr. John Hussman wrote a piece last week that I thought was one of his best, on liquidity traps and quantitative easing, and that's included here, too. We are embarking on a course through uncharted waters. No one (including the Fed) has any idea what the unintended consequences will be.

news.goldseek.com >> 31 October 2010

Be Careful What You Wish For
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week we turn our attention to the elections and their aftermath. Long-time readers know I am a Republican, but I offer some sobering advice to my friends on my side of the aisle: Be careful what you wish for. It's one thing to get a few votes. It's quite another to live up to promises that simply can't be kept. We will start our analysis by looking at the GDP numbers that came out today, and we will end by pointing out that there will be no easy choices. And then we can turn our attention where it should be, to the World Series here in Texas.

news.goldseek.com >> 24 October 2010

The Subprime Debacle: Act 2, Part 2
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Real problems indeed. Seems the Fed, PIMCO, and others are suing Countrywide over this very topic. We will go into detail later in this week's letter, covering the massive fraud involved in the sale of mortgage-backed securities. Frankly, this is scandalous. It is almost too much to contemplate, but I will make an effort.

news.goldseek.com >> 17 October 2010

The Subprime Debacle: Act 2
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
There's trouble, my friends, and it is does indeed involve pool(s), but not in the pool hall. The real monster is hidden in those pools of subprime debt that have not gone away. When I first began writing and speaking about the coming subprime disaster, it was in late 2007 and early 2008. The subject was being dismissed in most polite circles. "The subprime problem," testified Ben Bernanke, "will be contained."

news.goldseek.com >> 10 October 2010

The Ride of the Keynesian Cowboys
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
To ease or not to ease? That is the question we will take up this week. And if we do get another round of quantitative easing (QE2), will it make any difference? As I asked last week, what if they threw an inflation party and no one came? We will take as our launching pad today's unemployment numbers, which serve to demonstrate just why the Fed may in fact be ready for some monetary shock and awe.

news.goldseek.com >> 3 October 2010

The Morality of Chinese Growth
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week I am at a conference in Houston. I must confess that I don't attend many of the sessions at most conferences where I speak. But today, the guys at Streettalk Advisors have such a great lineup that I am there for every session. But it's Friday and I need to write. The solution? This week you get a "best of" letter.

news.goldseek.com >> 26 September 2010

Pushing on a String
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week the Fed altered their end-of-meeting statement by just a few words, but those words have a lot of meaning. It seems they are paving the way to a new round of quantitative easing (QE2), if in their opinion the situation warrants it. A trillion dollars of new money could soon be injected into the system.

news.goldseek.com >> 19 September 2010

The Chances of a Double Dip
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
I am on a plane (yet again) from Zurich to Mallorca, where I will meet with my European and South American partners, have some fun, and relax before heading to Denmark and London. With the mad rush to finish my book (more on that later) and a hectic schedule this week, I have not had time to write a letter. But never fear, I leave you in the best of hands. Dr. Gary Shilling graciously agreed to condense his September letter, where he looks at the risk of another recession in the US.

news.goldseek.com >> 13 September 2010

The Last Half
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
There are a number of economic forces in play in today's world, not all of them working in the same direction, which makes choosing policies particularly difficult. Today we finish what we started last week, the last half of the last chapter I have to write to get a rough draft of my forthcoming book, The End Game.

news.goldseek.com >> 6 September 2010

The Last Chapter
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week you will get a kind of preview as this week's letter. I am desperately trying to finish the first draft of my book and am one chapter away from having that draft. I have promised my editor (Debra Englander) that she would see a rough draft next week, and the final version will be delivered on the last day of September. More on that process for those interested at the end of the letter. But this week's letter will be part of what will probably be the 4th or 5th chapter, where we look at the rules of economics.

news.goldseek.com >> 30 August 2010

The Dark Side of Deficits
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
In the pre-crisis days, I used to write about things like P/E ratios, secular bull and bear markets, valuations, and all of the things we used to think about in the Old Normal. But what about those topics as we begin our trip through the New Normal? It's time to reconvene class and think through what might change and what will remain the same.

news.goldseek.com >> 22 August 2010

How We Get Through This Mess
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week I spoke to a small group of businessmen/entrepreneurs about the current economic environment, and after my presentation one asked me whether I didn't have any good news for them, with a kind of gallows humor laugh. And I tried. But upon reflection there is more I could have said, so this week's letter will be what I should have said to be a little more encouraging.

news.goldseek.com >> 15 August 2010

The Gulf Oil Spill Disaster
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
As I mentioned last Monday night in my Outside the Box, I did not make it to Turks and Caicos, but did end up in Baton Rouge for a special seminar on the Deepwater Horizon Gulf oil spill. I have both good news (or maybe more like less-bad news) and bad news. Today's letter is a report on what I learned.

news.goldseek.com >> 8 August 2010

The Problem with Pensions
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Sadly, I find myself with more than enough time to compose yet another Thoughts from the Frontline in an airport, as a flight booking error has me at JFK for six hours instead of fishing in Maine. Details for those interested or amused at the end. But it does allow me to offer you a peek into a very sobering report on how badly underfunded public pension are.

news.goldseek.com >> 1 August 2010

Are We There Yet?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Those of us who have taken young children on long road trips to somewhere they wanted to go are familiar with the plaintive question "Are We There Yet?" As a nation and indeed the developed world, it is not unreasonable to be asking "Are We There Yet?" about the road to recovery. The NBER, those self-appointed economists who are the official keepers of the score sheet of recessions and recoveries, have yet to tell us we are out of recession. Yet the economy is growing. Kind of.

news.goldseek.com >> 25 July 2010

Some Thoughts on Deflation
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
The debate over whether we are in for inflation or deflation was alive and well at the Agora Symposium in Vancouver this this week. It seems that not everyone is ready to join the deflation-first, then-inflation camp I am currently resident in. So in this week's letter we look at some of the causes of deflation, the elements of deflation, if you will, and see if they are in ascendancy.

news.goldseek.com >> 18 July 2010

The Debt Supercycle
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
I have been writing about The End Game for some time now. And writing a book of the same title. Consequently, I have been thinking a lot about how the credit crisis evolved into the sovereign debt crisis, and how it all ends. Today we explore a few musings I have had of late, while we look at some very interesting research. What will a world look like as a variety of nations have to deal with the end of their Debt Supercycle. We'll jump right in with no "but first's" this week.

news.goldseek.com >> 11 July 2010

It's More Than Just Birth-Death
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Just how dynamic is the US job market? If I told you we created over 4 million jobs in April, would you believe me? I had a long conversation with Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO yesterday. He is openly speculating that employment may no longer be just a lagging indicator but may also be predictive. It is an interesting insight, which we will explore as we take a very deep look at US employment.

news.goldseek.com >> 5 July 2010

The Dismal Science Really Is
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Some Really Dismal Numbers
Unemployment Went Down?
Earnings Take a Hit
Money Supply Concerns
A Central Banker's Nightmare
Why Don't You Reform Yourselves?

news.goldseek.com >> 28 June 2010

The Risk of Recession
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
The Risk of Recession

The Leading Indicators Are Starting to Turn

Terms of Trade and US Real GDP

Bernanke at the Crossroads

news.goldseek.com >> 21 June 2010

Be Careful for What You Wish
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
"Everyone" is upset with the level of fiscal deficits being run by nearly every developed country. And with much justification. The levels of fiscal deficits are unsustainable and threaten to bring many countries to the desperate situation that Greece now finds itself in.

news.goldseek.com >> 13 June 2010

The Frog in the Frying Pan
By: John Mauldin and Jonathan Tepper
Tonight I am in Venice, but I have arranged for a special edition of Thoughts from the Frontline, written by Jonathan Tepper of Variant Perception, a research firm in London. I have been corresponding with Jonathan for some time, and we have had some solid, and lately quite frequent, conversations. I am very impressed with this young man, whose perceptions and insights I find quite thoughtful.

news.goldseek.com >> 6 June 2010

There's a Slow Train Coming
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
The question before the jury is a simple one, but the answer is complex. Is the US in a "V"-shaped recovery? Are we returning to the old normal? A great deal hinges on the answer, and this week we look at some of the evidence before us.

news.goldseek.com >> 31 May 2010

Six Impossible Things
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Economists and policy makers seem to want to believe impossible things in regards to the current debt crisis percolating throughout the world. And believing in them, they are adopting policies that will result in, well, tragedy. Today we address what passes for wisdom among the political crowd and see where we are headed, especially in Europe.

news.goldseek.com >> 24 May 2010

The Case for a Fed Rate Hike
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Everywhere there are arguments that we are in a "V"-shaped recovery. And there are signs that in fact that is the case. Today we will look at some of those, and then take up the topic of when the Fed will raise rates. We open the case and look at the evidence. Is there enough to come to a real conviction? I think there is. (And at the end of the letter I mention two conferences I am speaking at in the next few months, in Vancouver and San Francisco.)

news.goldseek.com >> 17 May 2010

Europe Throws a Hail Mary Pass
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
And that is what Europe did last weekend. They threw a Hail Mary pass in an attempt to avoid the loss of the eurozone. Jean-Claude Trichet blinked. Merkel capitulated. Today we consider what the consequences of this new European-styled TARP will be for Europe and the world. We do live in interesting times.

news.goldseek.com >> 9 May 2010

The Center Cannot Hold
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Last week we focused on the first half of a paper by the Bank of International Settlements, discussing what they characterized as the need for "Drastic measures ... to check the rapid growth of current and future liabilities of governments and reduce their adverse consequences for long-term growth and monetary stability." As I noted, you don't often see the term drastic measures in a staid economic paper from the BIS. This week we will look at the conclusion of that paper, and then turn our discussion to the fallout from the problems they discuss, initially in Europe but coming soon to a country near you.

news.goldseek.com >> 2 May 2010

The Future of Public Debt
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Everyone and their brother intuitively knows that the current government fiscal deficits in the developed world are unsustainable. They have to be brought under control, but that requires some short-term pain. Today we look at a rather remarkable piece of research from the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) on what the fiscal crisis may morph into in the future, how much pain will be needed, and what will happen if various countries stay on their present courses. Some countries could end up paying north of 20% of GDP just on the interest to serve their debt, within just 30 years.

news.goldseek.com >> 18 April 2010

First, Let's Kill the Angels
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
When you draft a 1,300-page "financial reform" bill, various special interests get language tucked into the bill to help their agendas. However, the unintended consequences can be devastating. And the financial reform bill has more than a few such items. Today, we look briefly at a few innocent paragraphs that could simply kill the job-creation engine of the US.

news.goldseek.com >> 11 April 2010

Reform We Can Believe In
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Casey Stengel, manager of the hapless 1962 New York Mets, once famously asked, after an especially dismal outing, "Can't anybody here play this game?" This week I ask, after months of worse than no progress, "Can't anybody here even spell financial reform, let alone get it done?" We are in danger of experiencing another credit crisis, but one that could be even worse, as the tools to fight it may be lacking when we need them.

news.goldseek.com >> 4 April 2010

Is This a Recovery?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Last week I wrote a letter to my kids trying to explain what Greece meant to them. Reader Ken V wrote: "Great letter, John. Now you should write one for the adults who are retired and don't have the long future your kids do. If the US becomes Greece, things won't recover in time for much of the rest of my life to be more than one grim, dreary period. What is your investment advice for those with roughly a 10-year horizon, not 30-40-50 years?"

news.goldseek.com >> 28 March 2010

What Does Greece Mean to You?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
"Any explanation is better than none." And the simpler, it seems in the investment game, the better. "The markets went up because oil went down," we are told, except when it went up there was another reason for the movement of the markets. We all intuitively know that things are far more complicated than that. But as Nietzsche noted, dealing with the unknown can be disturbing, so we look for the simple explanation.

news.goldseek.com >> 21 March 2010

The Threat to Muddle Through
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
If the Chinese allowed the renminbi to rise, would that make the USA better off? That is the contention of a cabal of critics from Senators to Nobel laureates. Paul Krugman wants to see a 25% tariff on Chinese goods. Today we examine that idea, and look at the real problems that we face. If only it were so easy. The numbers just don't add up. The fault, dear Brutus...

news.goldseek.com >> 14 March 2010

The Implications of Velocity
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week we do some review on a very important topic, the velocity of money. If we don't understand the basics, it is hard to make sense of the hash that our world economy is in, much less understand where we are headed.

news.goldseek.com >> 7 March 2010

Welcome to the Future
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
We are in an era of accelerating change, moving toward a future that will be profoundly different from the past we grew up in. But what will the nature of that change be? What will the future look like?

news.goldseek.com >> 28 February 2010

The Multiplication of Money
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
The economy grew in the fourth quarter by 5.9%, the most in years. The adjusted monetary base is exploding. Bank reserves are literally through the roof. The Fed is flooding money into the system in an effort to get banks to lend. An historically normal response by banks (to increase lending) would have been massively inflationary, causing the Fed to stomp on the brakes.

news.goldseek.com >> 21 February 2010

The Pain in Spain
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Last week we talked about Greece. But the problems are more than just Greece. We look at two very different views of the euro, and then opposing thoughts on Spain. Is Spain a problem or not? And how can the US keep on spending? Is there a limit? There is a lot to cover in what has been an interesting, if confusing, week.

news.goldseek.com >> 14 February 2010

Between Dire and Disastrous
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
The news is somewhat "All Greece, All the Time," but most of the pieces miss the more critical elements, and in today's letter we will look at what I think those are, as well as at the important point that Greece is a precursor of a new era of sovereign risk. Plus, we glance at a few rather silly recent comments from economists. It will make for a very interesting discussion.

news.goldseek.com >> 7 February 2010

A Bubble in Search of a Pin
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Should Greenspan and Bernanke have seen the bubble in housing and other assets and acted, or should we accept their defense that you can't know whether there is a bubble until after the fact? We will look at research that suggests they should have known, and, at the least, policy makers should no longer be allowed to say, "How could I have known?"

news.goldseek.com >> 31 January 2010

This Time Is Different
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
When does a potential crisis become an actual crisis, and how and why does it happen? Why did most everyone believe there were no problems in the US (or Japanese or European or British) economies in 2006? Yet now we are mired in a very difficult situation.

news.goldseek.com >> 24 January 2010

Thoughts on the End Game
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Over the next several months, we are going to start to explore various aspects of the end game. Whither Japan? Are they actually, as I think, a bug in search of a windshield? What does that mean for the world? How safe is the euro? Everyone over here seems to think Germany will bail out Greece. A breakup seems unthinkable to the people I've been talking to (so far). But what about Spain? Italy? Can you spell moral hazard?

news.goldseek.com >> 18 January 2010

When the Fed Stops the Music
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Last week we delved into the uncertainties that face us and that make forecasting for 2010 problematical. Will the government actually increase taxes as much as they say, with unemployment still likely to be at 10%? Or will cooler heads prevail? Would such an increase cause a recession? Will the markets anticipate the effects of such a major increase in advance?

news.goldseek.com >> 11 January 2010

2010 Forecast: The Year of Uncertainty
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This will be my tenth annual forecast issue. Time has flown by, and I enter a new decade of writing Thoughts from the Frontline. And even as I write about the high level of uncertainty of the current times, I am optimistic that at the opening of the next decade we will look back and realize that there has been an enormous amount of progress made.

news.goldseek.com >> 13 December 2009

Thoughts on the Statistical Recovery
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
We are clearly starting to get some better data points here and there. But as I pointed out this summer, it is going to be a recovery in the statistics and not in the things that count, such as income and employment. This week we look at the nascent recovery (which could be at 3% this quarter) and try to peer out into the future to see what it means.

news.goldseek.com >> 6 December 2009

A Conversation with John
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week I am in New York, and have a whirlwind of meetings (and I admit, a lot of fun on the side) and not much time to write. I have been saving today's letter for a month or so, for a time such as this. Damien Hoffman of the Wall Street Cheat Sheet interviewed me and posted the transcript on his web site. I thought it was one of the better interviews I have done recently, and so it is this week's Thoughts from the Frontline.

news.goldseek.com >> 29 November 2009

Why I am an Optimist
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
I admit that of late my writings have had a rather dark tone. There are certainly a number of severe long-term problems that we must deal with, and they're going to serve up a lot of economic pain. But the Thanksgiving weekend with the kids has me in a reflective mood, and one that has only served to underscore my long-term optimism.

news.goldseek.com >> 22 November 2009

Where the Wild Things Are
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Where the Wild Things Are is a beloved children's book and now a beautiful movie. But in the investment world there are really scary wild things lurking about in the hidden recesses of the economic landscape. Today we look at one of the unintended consequences of the Federal Reserve's low interest rate policy.

news.goldseek.com >> 15 November 2009

If This is Recovery...
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
No one goes into Wal-Mart and asks to pay extra sales tax. Thus sales taxes are reasonable barometers for retail sales. This week we look at how taxes are doing in a period of economic recovery. Then we turn our eyes to a very interesting (and sobering) analysis of possible future unemployment rates.

news.goldseek.com >> 8 November 2009

The Glide Path Option
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
The present contains all possible futures. But not all futures are good ones. Some can be quite cruel. The one we actually get is dictated by the choices we make. For the last few months I have been addressing the choices in front of us, economically speaking. Today I am going to summarize them, and maybe we can look for some signposts that will tell us which path we're headed down.

news.goldseek.com >> 1 November 2009

Catching Argentinian Disease
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
I have been in South America this week, speaking nine times in five days, interspersed with lots of meetings. The conversation kept coming back to the prospects for the dollar, but I was just as interested in talking with money managers and business people who had experienced the hyperinflation of Argentina and Brazil. How could such a thing happen?

news.goldseek.com >> 25 October 2009

The Best of Times
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
What's a Fed to do? We get talk about tightening and taking away the easy credit, but we got the fourth largest monetization on record last week. This week we examine the elements of deflation, look at some banking statistics that are not optimistic, and then I write a reply to my great friend Bill Bonner about why it's the best of times to be young. I think you will get a few thought-provoking ideas here and there.

news.goldseek.com >> 18 October 2009

Muddle Through, R.I.P?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
I first wrote about the Muddle Through Economy in 2002, and the term has more or less become a theme we have returned to from time to time. In 2007 I wrote that we would indeed get back to a Muddle Through Economy after the end of the coming recession. If you Google the term, at least for the first four pages more than half the references are to this e-letter. I get a lot of flak from both bulls and bears about being either too optimistic or too pessimistic. Being in the muddle through middle is comfortable to me.

news.goldseek.com >> 11 October 2009

Killing the Goose
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Today we look at the possibility that the fiscal path of the enormous US government deficits we are on could indeed kill the goose, or harm it so badly it will make the lost decades that Japan has suffered seem like a stroll in the park.

news.goldseek.com >> 4 October 2009

Another Finger of Instability
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This weekend I turn 60 and have been a little more introspective than usual. I am often told that the letter I wrote well over three years ago on ubiquity and complexity theory and the future of the economy was the best letter I have ever done. I went back to read it, and it has aged well. I basically outlined how a financial crisis would unfold, and now it has.

news.goldseek.com >> 27 September 2009

Welcome to the New Normal
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Unemployment is high and rising. But if the recession is over, won't employment start to rise? The quick answer is no. We look deeper into the Statistical Recovery and find yet more reasons to be concerned about near-term deflation. This week we consider all things unemployment and ponder the need to create at least 15 million jobs in the next five years to return to a full-employment economy - and the implications for both the US and world economies if we don't.

news.goldseek.com >> 21 September 2009

The Hole in FDIC
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week we continue to look at what powers the forces of deflation. As I continue to stress, getting the fundamental question answered correctly is the most important issue we face going forward. And the problem is that we cannot use the usual historical comparisons. This week we look at one more factor: bank lending.

news.goldseek.com >> 13 September 2009

Elements of Deflation, Part 2
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Just as water is formed by the basic elements hydrogen and oxygen, deflation has its own fundamental components. Last week we started exploring those elements, and this week we continue. I feel that the most fundamental of decisions we face in building investment portfolios is correctly deciding whether we are faced with inflation or deflation in our future.

news.goldseek.com >> 8 September 2009

The Elements of Deflation
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
As every school child knows, water is formed by the two elements of hydrogen and oxygen in a very simple formula we all know as H2O. Today we start a series that starts with the question, What are the elements that comprise deflation? Far from being simple, the "equation" for deflation is as complex as that of DNA.

news.goldseek.com >> 23 August 2009

Capacity Utilization Set to Rise
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week we further explore why this recovery will be a Statistical Recovery, or one that, as someone said, is a recovery only a statistician could love. We look at capacity utilization, more on housing, some thoughts on debt and deflation, and some intriguing charts on volatility in the last secular bear-market cycle.

news.goldseek.com >> 16 August 2009

The Statistical Recovery, Part Two
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
A few weeks ago I first used the term "statistical recovery" to describe the nature of today's economic environment. Today we are going to further explore that concept, as it is important to have a real understanding of what is happening.

news.goldseek.com >> 9 August 2009

Six Impossible Things Before Breakfast
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
The Efficient Market Hypothesis, according to Shiller, is one of the most remarkable errors in the history of economic thought. EMH should be consigned to the dustbin of history. We need to stop teaching it, and brainwashing the innocent. Rob Arnott tells a lovely story of a speech he was giving to some 200 finance professors. He asked how many of them taught EMH - pretty much everyone's hand was up. Then he asked how many of them believed it. Only two hands stayed up!

news.goldseek.com >> 26 July 2009

The Statistical Recovery
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
A lot of bullish commentators are talking about a recovery being in the works, and they may very well be right. But it is not going to look like any recovery worthy of the name. This week we look at what I will call The Statistical Recovery. But first we take a look at what China is doing, as we continue our look at the rest of the world and ponder whether it is time to brace ourselves for an extended bout with the Muddle Through Economy*. (And yes, there is an asterisk.)

news.goldseek.com >> 20 July 2009

Europe on the Brink
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
We have avoided Armageddon, at least for now. The cost to the US taxpayer has been a few trillion. Some in the media are loudly announcing the end of the recession. But we are not out of the woods yet. There are a few more bumps in the road. Actually, some of them are quite steep hills. As big as the subprime problem? Maybe.

news.goldseek.com >> 13 July 2009

Buddy, Can You Spare $5 Trillion?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
There is no doubt that the US is in financial trouble. Those talking of a strong recovery are just not dealing with reality. But the US is in better shape than a lot of countries. This week, we begin by looking at Japan. I have written for years about how large their debt-to-GDP ratio is, yet they keep on issuing more debt and seemingly getting away with it.

news.goldseek.com >> 28 June 2009

The End of the Recession?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Last week we began a series on data abuse, about how various commentators twist and torture data to make it say what they want, or fail to look at the details underneath the headlines. Predictably, there is a lot of fodder this week as we forge ahead into this ripe territory.

news.goldseek.com >> 21 June 2009

This Time It's Different*
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
I have often written that the four most dangerous words in the investment world are "This Time It's Different." If memory serves me, I have written several e-letters disparaging various personages who have uttered those very words, and gone one to confirm later that it wasn't different. It almost never is. And yet - and yet! - I am going to make the case over the next few weeks that it really is different this time, with only a lonely asterisk as a caveat.

news.goldseek.com >> 31 May 2009

This Way There Be Dragons
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This Way Be Dragons
A Housing Update
More Prime Foreclosures In Our Future
Are We Paying Too Much for Health Care?
Naples, London, and Home for June

news.goldseek.com >> 17 May 2009

Faith-Based Economics
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Why does government data need to be revised so often? Is it conspiracy, as some claim, or is it methodology? And if it is methodology that leads to faulty data, then why not change the methodology? Is unemployment a lagging indicator, as conventional wisdom suggests? We look again at the underlying assumptions to suggest that things are not always the same. And finally, we look at unsustainable trends, fiscal deficits, and health care -- there is a connection.

news.goldseek.com >> 10 May 2009

Green Shoots or Dandelion Weeds?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Go to Google. Type in "green shoots." In about a 10th of a second you will find 28,900,000 references. Scrolling through a few pages, you find a lot of references to the beginning of the end of the recession. Today we look at some data to see if we can indeed see the end. Most readers will be surprised to know that the number of people employed in the US went up (!) in April. Yet so did the unemployment rate. Is that green shoot just another dandelion weed in our economic garden?

news.goldseek.com >> 3 May 2009

Sell in May and Go Away
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
The old adage that one should "sell in May and walk away" has been around for years. I mentioned that bromide about this time last year, urging readers to head for the sidelines if they had not already done so. I was also suggesting a strategic retreat in August of 2006 (after which the markets went up 20% before plummeting). In this week's letter we look at the actual data and offer up a fresh viewpoint.

news.goldseek.com >> 26 April 2009

Back to the Future Recession
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week we look at the second half of my speech from a few weeks ago at my annual Strategic Investment Conference in La Jolla. If you have not read the first part, you can review it here. The first few paragraphs are a repeat from last week, to give us some context. Please note that this is somewhat edited from the original, and I have added a few ideas.

news.goldseek.com >> 19 April 2009

The Trend May Not Be Your Friend
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Two weeks ago I presented my thoughts on the current economic situation at my 6th Annual Strategic Investment Conference in La Jolla (co-hosted with Altegris Investments). The speech was well-received, at least to judge from the comment forms. So this week and next, we are going to revisit that talk (with a few edits). Let's start with a little set-up to explain the first few paragraphs.

news.goldseek.com >> 12 April 2009

Is That Recovery We See?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
The market, we keep hearing and reading, is telling us that there is recovery around the corner. And pundits point to data that seems to suggest the worst is behind us. The leading economic indicators, while still down significantly, seem to be in the process of bottoming. There is a large amount of stimulus in the pipeline. Mark-to-market has been modified. Housing seems to be finding a bottom, if you look at the rise in sales from January. And so on.

news.goldseek.com >> 5 April 2009

Deep Inside the Dow
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Tonight (Saturday) some 450 people will come together in San Diego to honor Richard Russell, who has been writing the Dow Theory Letter for over 50 years. In that spirit, in today's letter we are going to look deep inside the Dow, back to its very roots. The Dow is a price-weighted index as opposed to a cap-weighted index. Does that make a difference in performance? Specifically, does it affect how the Dow has performed since it was expanded to 30 names in 1928? There are some real surprises we have found, and I think you will find this letter very interesting.

news.goldseek.com >> 29 March 2009

Why Bother With Bonds?
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Investments
Why Bother With Bonds?

So Then, Bonds for the Long Run?

P/E Ratios at 200?

Really?

Mark-to-Market Slip Slides AwayHousing Sales Improve?

Not HardlyLa Jolla, Copenhagen, London, etc.

news.goldseek.com >> 22 March 2009

Solving the Housing Crisis
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Investments
Solving the Housing Crisis
Housing Could Drop Another 20% in Pricing
Buy A Home, Get a Green Card
A Real Stimulus Package
Las Vegas, La Jolla, and the OC

news.goldseek.com >> 15 March 2009

The Swiss Start Their Engines
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week we look at the Land of the Rising Sun. Japan is going through major upheavals, and they will have consequences all over the world. And what are those wild and crazy Swiss central bankers up to? It's time for another round of competitive devaluation. And of course I have to look at the recent Barron's cover story, about how stocks are cheap. There's a lot to cover.

news.goldseek.com >> 8 March 2009

The Law of Unintended Consequences
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Rules have consequences. And sometimes they have unintended consequences. If I told you that the US government was going to give multiple tens of billions of taxpayer dollars to hedge funds and private investors, you would justifiably not be happy. I think the word angry would come to mind.

news.goldseek.com >> 1 March 2009

Buy and Hope Investing
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week Professor Jeremy Siegel (author of Stocks for the Long Run) had an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal showing that stocks are now cheap. I was on Tech Ticker, and Henry Blodgett challenged me about my e-letter last week, where I talked about how expensive stocks are. So which is it? We look at Professor Siegel's work -- and I let you decide.

news.goldseek.com >> 22 February 2009

While Rome Burns
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week's letter is likely to lose me a few friends, though. I am going to start a series on money management, portfolio construction, and money managers. It will be back to the basics for both new and long-time readers. I am not sure how long it will take (in terms of weeks), but it is likely to make a few people upset and provoke some strong disagreements. Let's just say this is not stocks for the long run.

news.goldseek.com >> 16 February 2009

Time for a Reality Check
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
It is not just the US that is in recession. The world is slowing down, and rapidly. This week we quickly survey the rest of the world, and then come back to the US. We follow up with the implications for corporate earnings worldwide, and specifically address my speculations about earnings forecasts for 2009.

news.goldseek.com >> 8 February 2009

Thoughts on the Continuing Crisis
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
When confronted about an apparent change of his opinions, John Maynard Keynes is reported to have said, "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?" The earnings season for the 4th quarter is almost 80% complete, and the facts are dismal. It is worse than the current data shows, and could get uglier.

news.goldseek.com >> 1 February 2009

Trading With the Big Boys
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week we are going to do something a little different. I am in Bermuda taking a little weekend R&R after a speech, as well as working on my book. There is not the time for the usual letter this week, but I have asked Barry Ritholtz to write about his new trading program, FusionIQ, for reasons I will talk about below.

news.goldseek.com >> 18 January 2009

The Endgame
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Deflation? Stimulus? Deleveraging? Recession? A soft depression? A return to a bull market? With all that is going on, how does it all end up? When we get to where we are going, where will we be? In chess, the endgame refers to the stage of the game when there are few pieces left on the board. The line between middlegame and endgame is often not clear, and may occur gradually or with the quick exchange of a few pairs of pieces. The endgame, however, tends to have different characteristics from the middlegame, and the players have correspondingly different strategic concerns. And in the current economic endgame, your strategy needs to consist of more than hope for a renewed bull market.

news.goldseek.com >> 11 January 2009

Forecast 2009: Deflation and Recession
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
Where are we headed in 2009? We will explore that in detail over the next few issues of Thoughts from the Frontline, but today we will start with some of the larger forces which will have a major impact on the economies of the world, and I will end with my usual attempt to forecast the various markets. We will look at deflation, deleveraging, the fallout from the stimulus plans (note plural), housing, consumer spending, unemployment, and a lot more.

news.goldseek.com >> 4 January 2009

2008: Annus Horribilis, RIP
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
This week we look at a very interesting, if not altogether encouraging, piece of research on the length and severity of recessions that come during periods of financial crisis, which can apply to not just the US but all countries that are involved in the current crisis. But being forewarned is better than blindly stumbling through, so we will take some time to peruse it. Then we (briefly) look at the depth of the manufacturing numbers in the US, which leads us into the recent bout of earnings downgrades and some thoughts as to where that might suggest the market is going.

news.goldseek.com >> 21 December 2008

I Meant to Do That
By: John Mauldin, Millennium Wave Advisors
The Fed has taken interest rates to zero. They have clearly started a program of quantitative easing. What exactly does that mean? Are we all now Japanese? Is the Fed pushing on a string, as Japan has done for almost two decades? The quick answer is no, but the quick answer doesn't tell us much. We may not be in for a two-decades-long Japanese malaise, but we will experience a whole new set of circumstances. In what will hopefully be a shorter holiday version of the e-letter, I will tackle these questions and more.

news.goldseek.com >> 5 April 2008